The Unassuming Economist

Demographia International Housing Affordability looks at housing affordability in 94 major housing markets across Australia, Canada, China, Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States. The 2023 report covers the third quarter of 2022. Housing affordability by Demographia is given in the table below.

“Housing affordability in 2022 continued to reflect the huge price increases that occurred during the pandemic demand shock. Some housing affordability improvements have since occurred and more are likely as the demand shock is hopefully replaced by more normal market trends.”

 – (Demographia, 2023)

Hong Kong is the least affordable with a median multiple of 18.8 followed by Sidney, Vancouver, Honolulu, San Jose, Los Angeles, Auckland, Melbourne and Toronto. Pittsburgh, Rochester, Cleveland and St Louis were the most affordable markets.

The report is available here.

A new paper by Albert Saiz (The Global Housing Affordability Crisis: Policy Options and Strategies) looks at potential policy interventions in response to the surge in housing prices and rents that have grown faster than incomes in many parts of the world. It identifies 30 different strategies to deal with the housing affordability crisis.

• Based on the findings, he argues that prior to determining and implementing programs, policymakers must understand the objective function and available policy tools. In general, the greater the tools deployed, better the outcomes;
• Inter-partisan consensus is required at federal and local levels given that land use if allocated for housing would lock it over the next 20 years;
• Given the affordability challenges, for developed and advanced developing countries, housing programs should be focused on the poor. Subsidies are argued to be unproductive due to their general equilibrium impacts which undo their partial equilibrium effects on affordability;
• Local elasticity of housing supply should be an important contextual feature while determining policy response;
• The design of the program should consider incentives, motivations and behavior of different agents such as beneficiaries, real estate agents, other consumers, suppliers etc.

To read more, click here.

On cross-country:

• Spain and Portugal tackle property crisis by embracing public housing. Under-investment means the two countries have the most limited stocks of subsidised homes in western Europe – FT

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Podcast interview: What’s behind the boom in housing prices and rents? Boston Fed economist says the high rents plus high housing costs mean this spike is different – Boston Fed
• Home Prices Grew 4.7 Percent Year over Year in First Quarter – Fannie Mae
• March Housing Starts: Most Multi-family Under Construction Since 1973. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.420 million Annual Rate in March – Calculated Risk
• US housing market stabilizing as single-family homebuilding, permits surge – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• What a housing shortage means for the future of work – Globe and Mail
• How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’. Counting the homes we have is straightforward, yet counting the number we need is anything but – Wall Street Journal
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March. 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets: California Home Sales down 34% YoY in March; Prices Down 7.0% YoY. Expect NAR to report sales of around 4.51 million SAAR for March – Calculated Risk

On China:

• China March new home prices rise at fastest pace in 21 months – Reuters
• Chinese property prices rise ahead of first-quarter GDP release. New home values climb at fastest pace in 21 months but uneven consumer recovery clouds outlook – FT
• China’s property-market recovery ‘uncertain’ as investment remains weak despite surge in first-quarter home sales. Property development investment dropped 5.8 per cent year on year to 2.6 trillion yuan (US$377.8 billion) in the first quarter. Overall property sales rose 4.1 per cent year on year in the quarter, and new-homes sales shot up 7.1 per cent, according to government data – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia must realise the best form of rent control is public housing. Increasing private housing supply alone is not an adequate response to the urgent problem of rising rents – The Guardian
• [Australia] Living with density: will Australia’s housing crisis finally change the way its cities work? Experts agree medium – and high-density development in established suburbs is an essential part of making housing more affordable. But the opposition from existing home owners is fierce – The Guardian
• [Australia] Rental crisis: Airbnb and holiday home owners urged to let out properties to long-term renters. Thousands of homes across Australia are listed on short-stay websites but councils’ call to action is ‘piecemeal approach’ to housing crisis, experts say – The Guardian
• [Germany] Secondary Housing Supply – London School of Economics
• [Hong Kong] Boosting Hong Kong’s housing supply must not come at the expense of subdivided flat residents. The government’s proposal to lower the threshold that would trigger the compulsory sale of old buildings would affect a large number of subdivided flat residents. A progressive approach would allow time to find a balance between the need for redevelopment, the property interests of minority owners, and the concerns of tenants – South China Morning Post
• [India] Mortgage Terms Doubling to 60 Years Rattle Indian Homeowners. Some Indian banks adjust mortgage terms as interest rates rise. Nearly five million borrowers see repayments, tenures increase – Bloomberg
• [India] Land Use Deregulation and Housing Supply Under Institutional Frictions – SSRN
• [Taiwan] Taiwan’s Semiconductor Success Is Fueling a Surge in Home Prices. Home prices in Taiwan are rising in tandem with the expansion plans of the world’s most important semiconductor manufacturers. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] The problematic rise of the ‘ultra-marathon’ mortgage. ‘While a longer mortgage term may help first-time buyers get on what they think is a housing ladder, it actually limits their ability to climb it’ – FT
• [United Kingdom] Shift to Cheaper Homes Holds Answer to Diverging UK House Prices. Capital Economics looks at gap between Nationwide and Halifax. Mortgage lenders disagree on whether price are falling – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] As More Rate Hikes Loom, What Next for House Prices? Recent UK house price data is mixed. But a rally from here seems unlikely. – Bloomberg

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Accounting for flood risk would lower American house prices by $187bn. Unpriced future damages inflate home values the most in rural, inland regions – The Economist
• Mortgage Activity Increases as Rates Fall for 5th Straight week – NAHB
• Mortgage Rates Just Dropped Again—Is It Enough To Save the Spring Housing Market? – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

• Bloomberg Wealth: A Housing Market That’s Hard to Handicap. Recent financial and economic indicators are making it difficult for investors to understand how to approach real estate. – Bloomberg
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Closed Sales: 19th consecutive month with a YoY decline – Calculated Risk
• Zoning Restrictions Spread to New Areas, Making Housing Crisis Worse. Harvard economist Edward Glaeser describes a dangerous trend. But a cross-ideological tide of reform might help reverse it. – Reason
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March. The Year-over-year Sales Decline in March will likely be similar to February NSA – Calculated Risk
• Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April – Calculated Risk
• Housing politics divide the suburbs – Axios

On China:

• Chinese Consumers’ Lack of Confidence Is Causing a Rush of Mortgage Prepayments. Worries about future income levels, poor returns on investment push borrowers to repay debt early – Wall Street Journal
• Derisking Real Estate in China’s Hybrid Economy – NBER

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Housing values in some wealthy Australian suburbs have slumped more than a quarter, data reveals. Affluent areas of capital cities ‘lead both the upswing and the downturn’, according to property data expert – The Guardian
• [Canada] How Homeowners Are Tackling Surging Mortgage Rates in Canada. Homeowners with variable-rate loans at some of Canada’s major lenders are seeking ways to navigate much higher borrowing costs.  – Bloomberg 
• [Denmark] Denmark Joins Nordic Peers in Housing Price Rebound. Danish home prices rise first time in 9 months in March. Nordic markets have had some of the steepest slumps in Europe – Bloomberg
• [Japan] Japan’s house price increases moderating – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices are now falling – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise unexpectedly for third month in a row, by 0.8%. Halifax says market has been helped by easing of borrowing costs – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] More house price drops expected despite signs of market stabilizing. Rics monthly poll shows new buyer inquiries in UK are flat as volume of agreed sales falls further – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• The rich world’s housing crunch is far from over. Markets can be split into three camps: early adjusters, bullet-dodgers and slow movers – The Economist
• EU Q4 2022: rents rise, house prices fall – Eurostat
• EU housing market boom ends with first quarterly price fall since 2015. Prices fall in 15 of the bloc’s 27 member states as rising borrowing costs and tighter lending standards hit demand – FT
• The Global Housing Affordability Crisis: Policy Options and Strategies – MIT
• Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership Within and Across Countries – Journal of Finance

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US mortgage refinancings hit 6-month high on rates drop, MBA says – Reuters
• US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Eases to Six-Week Low of 6.45%. MBA data show decline helped boost home-purchase applications. Refinancing gauge rose last week to highest since September – Bloomberg
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 8th Consecutive Month in February. Boise leads Cities with 13.1% declined from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Slightly in February; Prices Up 1.9% YoY. Year-over-year “Price growth is expected to cross over into negative territory by April” – Calculated Risk
• US Home Price Insights – April 2023 – CoreLogic
• Mortgage Rate Update – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• US pending home sales rise for third straight month; loan demand increases – Reuters
• March 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Moody’s: Multifamily Demand “Softened notably over the past few quarters”. Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q1 – Calculated Risk
• Update: Comparing the Current Housing Cycle to the 1980 Period – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Has 3rd LOWEST Percentage Of Households That Own Homes Free and Clear, Without Mortgages – Real Estate Decoded
• Housing Is Turning Out to Be a Lousy Shelter for Investors. Apartments have been the second-worst performing type of real estate in the U.S. after offices over the past year – Wall Street Journal
• Fannie Mae Expands Equitable Housing Finance Plan – Fannie Mae

On China:

• China’s Housing Market Has Plenty of Space but Not Enough Buyers. The country is dealing with its worst oversupply of unsold apartments in years – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian House Prices Snap Declines as Sydney Market Surges. Sydney prices rose 1.4% in March, after 0.3% gain in February. Supply shortfall, surge in immigration behind price rebound – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices rise for second straight month in Feb – Reuters
• [New Zealand] Missed Mortgage Payments Swell in Housing Bellwether New Zealand. Proportion of mortgages in arrears rises to three-year high. ANZ Bank monitoring customers for signs of financial pressure – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Why Spain’s housing market is set to cool this year – ING
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals edge up but are down on last year’s levels. February’s figure of 43,500 is more than a third lower than a year earlier as interest rate rises bite – FT
• [United Kingdom] Falling House Prices Are No Cause for Panic. Think of it as a healthy, much-needed correction. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices post steepest fall since 2009. Annual decline of 3.1% in March is larger than drop forecast by economists – FT
• [United Kingdom] More homes come on to the UK market as pressures ease. Mortgage market stability boosts buyer confidence in spite of falling house prices – FT

On cross-country:

• European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options – IMF
• Laura Valderrama: European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – IMF
• Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability – IMF
• Why the global housing market has further to slide – Goldman Sachs

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms. In an unusual pattern, the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, saw home prices fall in January, while the opposite happened in the rest of the country – Wall Street Journal
• Home Prices Fell in January for Seventh Straight Month. Case-Shiller index declines 0.2% as rise in mortgage rates continues to slow housing market – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Declining Trend Continued” to 3.8% year-over-year increase in January. “U.S. house prices rose in January, up 0.2 percent from December, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®)” – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Housing Markets In West Coast Hubs And Zoom Towns Cooling Fastest – Redfin
• Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate. “2023 could … see property owners competing for renters.” – Calculated Risk
• Cross-Country Movers Largely Undeterred By High Mortgage Rates – Redfin
• Is the U.S. Tipping Into a Recession? The Answer Will Determine the Direction of the Housing Market – Realtor.com 

On the US—other developments:    

• House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises – San Francisco Fed
• More Good News for Homebuilders – Calculated Risk
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down – Calculated Risk
• The US homeownership gender gap is getting wider again. Homeownership among America’s single women fell 4.1 percentage points in 2022, cutting progress by half – Quartz
• U.S. real estate brokerages must face home sellers’ class action over commissions – Reuters

On China:

• The PBoC Props Up China’s Housing Market. The PBoC has fine-tuned its mortgage rates policy to stabilize housing prices, but not without unintended consequences. – Council on Foreign Relations

On other countries:  

• [Korea] Unusual $828 Billion Loan Market Magnifies Housing Risk in Korea. Jeonse loans for renting homes give landlords leveraged funds. Switching from the loans may fuel housing slump and defaults – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide. At the heart of the country’s economic and social crisis is a broken housing market, which has amplified social divisions – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Most Swedish mortgage borrowers have good buffers despite rising rates, FSA report says – Reuters