Housing View – March 31, 2023

On cross-country:

  • European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options – IMF
  • Laura Valderrama: European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – IMF
  • Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability – IMF
  • Why the global housing market has further to slide – Goldman Sachs

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms. In an unusual pattern, the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, saw home prices fall in January, while the opposite happened in the rest of the country – Wall Street Journal
  • Home Prices Fell in January for Seventh Straight Month. Case-Shiller index declines 0.2% as rise in mortgage rates continues to slow housing market – Wall Street Journal
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Declining Trend Continued” to 3.8% year-over-year increase in January. “U.S. house prices rose in January, up 0.2 percent from December, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®)” – Calculated Risk
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • Housing Markets In West Coast Hubs And Zoom Towns Cooling Fastest – Redfin
  • Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate. “2023 could … see property owners competing for renters.” – Calculated Risk
  • Cross-Country Movers Largely Undeterred By High Mortgage Rates – Redfin
  • Is the U.S. Tipping Into a Recession? The Answer Will Determine the Direction of the Housing Market – Realtor.com 

On the US—other developments:    

  • House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises – San Francisco Fed
  • More Good News for Homebuilders – Calculated Risk
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down – Calculated Risk
  • The US homeownership gender gap is getting wider again. Homeownership among America’s single women fell 4.1 percentage points in 2022, cutting progress by half – Quartz
  • U.S. real estate brokerages must face home sellers’ class action over commissions – Reuters

On China:

  • The PBoC Props Up China’s Housing Market. The PBoC has fine-tuned its mortgage rates policy to stabilize housing prices, but not without unintended consequences. – Council on Foreign Relations

On other countries:  

  • [Korea] Unusual $828 Billion Loan Market Magnifies Housing Risk in Korea. Jeonse loans for renting homes give landlords leveraged funds. Switching from the loans may fuel housing slump and defaults – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide. At the heart of the country’s economic and social crisis is a broken housing market, which has amplified social divisions – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Most Swedish mortgage borrowers have good buffers despite rising rates, FSA report says – Reuters

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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