The Unassuming Economist

From the IMF’s latest report on Tonga:

“Housing credit continues to rise supported by lower interest rates and economic growth. A housing bubble is unlikely to develop. Tonga has a rigid land tenure system with lengthy land registration. The secondary market for housing is very small and slow, with approximately 10 house sale transactions per each year. Most bank credit finances construction of owner-occupied dwellings and housing for personal use rather than for investment. The lending to households is collateralized, where land is the only asset that is qualified as collateral by banks. The limited time of land use depreciates its value as collateral over time.

Housing credit continues to rise supported by (i) low lending rates for housing loans; (ii) revision of the Land Act; and (iii) other initiatives. Higher payments for import of construction materials driven partially by removal of custom duty on construction materials also contributed to the increase of housing credit.

The household credit quality is not a clear concern. Although housing credit is growing rapidly, there are no signs of weakening ability of households to service the debt. All loans are salary-based, where loan payments are deducted directly from the salaries. The remittances continue to increase, and consumer confidence and demand are also on the rise. On the supply side, the ratio NPLs continue to decline. In FY2017, the value of collateral held against the delinquent loans reported by banks was at T$40.5 million compared to total NPLs of T$16.9 million, which indicates that banks hold sufficient collateral to cover any shortfall in loan-loss provisions.”

From a new IMF working paper by Jihad Dagher:

On income inequality

• Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes – AEA
• Capitalists in the Twenty-first Century – Paper
• Long Run Developments of Income and Wealth Inequality: Do They Move Together? – AEA
• Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered? – Paper
• Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949-2013 – Paper
• Recent Trends in the Variability of Men’s Earnings: Evidence From Administrative and Survey Data – Paper
• Taxes, Regulations of Businesses and Evolution of Income Inequality in the United States – Paper
• Origins of Wealth Inequality – AEA
• An Empirical Institutionalist Analysis of the Determinants of Income and Wealth Inequality in USA Since the 1980s – Paper
• Road to Despair and the Geography of the America Left Behind – AEA

On gender inequality

• Top Income Inequality and the Gender Pay Gap – Paper and Presentation
• Choosing Between Career and Family – Gender Roles as a Coordination Device in a Specialization Game – AEA
• Gender Inequality in Post-capitalism: Theorizing Institutions for Democratic Workplaces – Paper

On racial inequality

• Examining the Black-White Earnings Differential with Administrative Records – Paper
• Occupational Licensing Reduces Racial and Gender Wage Gaps: Evidence From the Survey of Income and Program Participation – AEA
• Higher Education in Orthodox, Heterodox, and Stratification Economics Perspectives on Racial Economic Inequality – AEA
• Poverty and Inequality – AEA
• Inequality Between and Within Immigrant Groups in the United States – Paper
• Revising The Racial Wage Gap Among Men: The Role Of Non-employment And Incarceration – AEA
• Revisiting Bergmann’s Occupational Crowding Model – AEA
• Racial Differences in Labor Force Participation Since the Great Recession: What’s Happening? – Paper
• The Color of Wealth: Evidence Across United States Cities – AEA
• No End in Sight? The Widening Racial Wealth Gap Since The Great Recession – AEA

On populism and globalization

• Understanding the Rise of Populism: Financialisation, Household Balance Sheet Structures, and Inequality in the United States Since 1980s – Paper
• Trade and Inequality: Evidence From Worker-level Adjustment in France – AEA
• Trade, Jobs, and Inequality – AEA
• Globalization and Inequality in Innovation: A Perspective from U.S. R&D Tax Credit Policy – Paper
• Making Financial Globalization More Inclusive – Paper and Presentation
• Making Globalization More Inclusive: When Compensation Is Not Enough – Paper

On labor

• Earnings Inequality and Mobility Trends in the United States: Nationally Representative Estimates from Longitudinally Linked Employer-employee Data – Paper and Presentation
• Theories of Redistribution and Share of Labor Income – Paper
• Labor Unions and Wealth Inequality – AEA
• The Care Penalty and the Power Premium: Earnings Inequality in the United States – AEA
• Inequality, Good Governance and Endemic Corruption – Paper
• Inequality and the Disappearing Large Firm Pay Premium – Paper
• Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence From Brazil – Paper
• Unequal Growth in Local Wages: Rail Versus Internet Infrastructure – Paper
• Determinants of the Wage Share: Evidence From Firm-level Data – Presentation
• Declining Labor and Capital Shares – Paper
• Labor Share and Technology Dynamics – Paper
• Theories of Redistribution and Share of Labor Income – Paper
• Earnings Inequality and the Role of the Firm – Paper and Presentation
• Inequality in Retirement Wealth – Paper and Presentation
• Delayed Retirement and the Growth in Economic Inequality by Work Ability – Paper
• Robots, Growth and Inequality: Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? – Paper and Presentation
• Endogenous Skill Choice as Source of Productivity Dispersion – Presentation
• The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms – Paper

On Africa

• Inclusive Finance for SMEs in South Africa and Its Impact on Growth and Inequality – Paper
• Institutions, Structures and Policy Paradigms: Toward Understanding Inequality in Africa – AEA

On other issues

• Extreme Inequality: Evidence From Brazil, India, the Middle-East, and South Africa – Paper and Presentation
• When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality – Paper
• Estimating Unequal Gains Across United States Consumers With Supplier Trade Data – Paper and Presentation
• Why Does Portfolio Choice Correlate Across Generations? – Paper
• Ten Years after the Crisis: A Lost Decade? – Paper
• Military Expenditures And Income Inequality, Evidence From A Panel Of Transition Countries (1990-2015) – AEA
• Tax Rates and Progressivity: Was the System More Progressive when the Top Rate was 91 Percent? – Paper and Presentation
• Rising Inequality, Household Debt, And The Slow Recovery After Great Recession – AEA
• Consumption Inequality and The Frequency of Purchases – Paper
• Mergers and Acquisitions, Technological Change and Inequality – Paper
• Same Storm, Different Disasters: Consumer Credit Access, Income Inequality, and Natural Disaster Recovery – Paper
• Rethinking Inequality in 21st Century – Financial Sector, Household Balance Sheet Structures and Distribution in the United States Since 1980s – Paper
• The Effects of Technical Change: Does Capital Aggregation Matter? – AEA

On cross-country:

• Q3 2017: Continued strong house price rises in Europe, Canada and parts of Asia, but globally housing markets are slowing sharply – Global Property Guide
• High house prices pose persistent risks in countries with housing markets slow to react to homeownership costs – Moody’s
• Real and financial cycles in EU countries: Stylised facts and modelling implications – European Central Bank
• Housing finance – International Growth Centre
• What if Real Estate Investors Are Looking at the Housing Market All Wrong? – Bloomberg

On the US:

• Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases: The Outlook for Housing in 2018 – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
• The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco – NBER
• The Housing Market Crash and Wealth Inequality in the U.S. – NBER
• Are Lemons Sold First? Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market – NBER
• Portfolio Choice with House Value Misperception – Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
• The Impact of Interest Rates on House Prices and Housing Demand: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment – American Enterprise Institute
• Housing Voucher Policy Designed to Expand Opportunity Targets Areas That Need It – Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
• Rent Control: Econ 101 Applies – Cato Institute

On other countries:

• [Brazil] No more roller coaster ride for Brazilian housing market? – Global Property Guide
• [Cambodia] Cambodia Finds New Target for Real Estate: Chinese Investors – New York Times
• [China] A Reexamination of Housing Price and Household Consumption in China: The Dual Role of Housing Consumption and Housing Investment – The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
• [Germany] German house prices are accelerating! – Global Property Guide
• [Hungary] Property boom in Hungary continues in 2017 – Global Property Guide
• [India] Mumbai Home Prices Post First Drop in Decade Amid Modi Crackdown – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Irish house prices will outpace all Europe over next 2 years – Global Property Guide
• [Italy] Italy an outlier as property prices continue to fall, data show – Financial Times
• [Montenegro] Montenegro’s housing market recovering, amidst booming tourism – Global Property Guide
• [Peru] House prices in Lima plunged in Q1 2017 – Global Property Guide
• [Thailand] Thailand’s housing market losing steam – Global Property Guide
• [Uruguay] House prices rising in Montevideo – Global Property Guide

Photo by Aliis Sinisalu

From a blog by Duncan Green: “Stefan gave us a tour of the ‘Big Ideals, Big Egos and Big Thinkers in development’. Here they are, points for recognizing them.” Continue reading the wonderful summary here.