The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Housing for the long run? – Financial Times
• Construction: How to build more efficiently – The Economist
• The construction industry: Least improved – The Economist

On the US:

• Worst Case Housing Needs: 2017 Report to Congress – U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
• Housing is too expensive for low-skilled workers to move to cities with the highest-paid jobs – Quartz
• S. Housing: The (Young) Kids Are Alright – Roubini Global Economics
• Banking integration and house price comovement – European Systemic Risk Board
• NY Fed President Wants Consumers to Tap Home Equity: Didn’t We Try That Before? – MishTalk
• Affordable Housing Regulations Crushing New Home Construction in L.A. – Reason

On other countries:

• [Australia] Speech on Some Innovative Mortgage Data – Reserve Bank of Australia
• [Australia] Monthly Property Update – CoreLogic
• Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market – IMF
• [China] Home Purchase Restriction and Housing Price: A Distribution Dynamics Analysis – Regional Science and Urban Economics
• [Netherlands] Regional house price differences are widening: Dutch Housing Market Quarterly – Rabobank
• [Spain] What has happened in Spain? The real estate bubble, corruption and housing development: A view from the local level – Geoforum
• [United Kingdom] Residential Market Outlook – Cluttons
• [United Kingdom] London mayor targets developers over affordable housing obligations – Financial Times

A new IMF reports finds that “China has grown rapidly and is on the brink of eradicating poverty. However, income inequality increased sharply from the early 1980s. While less equality is to be expected in the transition from central planning to a market-based economy, China is now among the most unequal countries in the world, despite a recent modest improvement.

Inequality has been driven by structural factors (especially demographics, the urban/rural divide and education/skills), with little offset from fiscal policies. These structural factors are likely to drive inequality higher.

This calls for more proactive use of fiscal policies to reduce inequality. On the revenue side: (1) increasing the progressivity of social security contributions and of personal and property taxes. On the spending side: (2) boosting social spending and promoting equal access across provinces and regardless of residency.”

Continue reading here.

A new IMF report on China says:

• “China’s real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. The tightening measures since late 2016 seem to have dampened market activity, but house prices and sales remain strong, particularly in smaller cities.”

• “Risks are significant on the downside. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken overall growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows.”

• “To stave off such risks, the increasing intensity of macro-prudential and city-specific policies is appropriate, given the diversity in housing conditions, and should continue to be deployed to ensure a smooth adjustment. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macroprudential measures including more active use of debt servicing-to-income (DSTI) caps and capital requirements on banks’ exposure to the real estate sector.”

• “A longer-term solution to manage better the frequent house price cycles is to introduce recurrent property taxes, resolve land supply constraints in large cities, mitigate local governments’ reliance on land sales, and accelerate reforms of the social security and “hukou” systems.”

On cross-country:

• Prime Global Cities Index – Knight Frank

On the US:

• Stabilizing the System of Mortgage Finance in the United States – IMF
• Robert Shiller on The Transformation of the ‘American Dream’ – New York Times
• Was there a Housing Price Bubble? Revisited – Marginal Revolution
• Appraising Home Purchase Appraisals – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
• Finding Common Ground for Land-Use Regulation Reform – Cato Institute
• Significant Improvements in Energy Efficiency Characteristics of the US Housing Stock – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Housing Sentiment Dips as High Home Prices Weigh on Buyers and Economic Conditions Weigh on Sellers – Fannie Mae

On other countries:

• [Australia] Mapping the market shows a substantial decline in affordable housing supply in Sydney and Melbourne over the past five years – CoreLogic
• [Canada] New mortgages continue to rise in Canada – CMHC
• [United Kingdom] Housing is a growing political problem for the Conservatives – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] How to solve Britain’s housing crisis – The Economist

A new IMF Working Paper by Richard Koss says that “It has been over a decade since the peak of house prices in the US was attained, and while there has been a concerted regulatory response to the subsequent collapse, the two Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) remain in conservatorship. While this action served to forestall a deeper crisis at the time, over the past several years risks related to the system of mortgage finance can be seen building across several dimensions that need to be addressed. While reforms to the GSEs are an important part of dealing with these concerns, this paper argues that broader changes need to be made across the entire mortgage landscape to stabilize the system, even before the final state of the GSEs is fully determined.”

Continue reading here.