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Recent Labor Market Reforms in Spain: A Preliminary Assessment

From a new IMF study:

“The 2012 labor market reforms are making a difference. Wage moderation is contributing to a visible recovery in headline employment growth, and the reforms have made the labor market more resilient to shocks. There is also some evidence that the contribution of temporary contracts to employment growth has started to decrease. However, the reliance on temporary workers remains strong overall and further structural reforms will be required to reduce the still very high level of long-term, structural unemployment.”

From a new IMF study:

“The 2012 labor market reforms are making a difference. Wage moderation is contributing to a visible recovery in headline employment growth, and the reforms have made the labor market more resilient to shocks. There is also some evidence that the contribution of temporary contracts to employment growth has started to decrease. However, the reliance on temporary workers remains strong overall and further structural reforms will be required to reduce the still very high level of long-term,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:25 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

House Prices in Jordan

“Mortgages slowed down in tandem with real estate prices; exposure of banks to real estate credit risk has remained limited”, notes the latest IMF report on Jordan.

“Mortgages slowed down in tandem with real estate prices; exposure of banks to real estate credit risk has remained limited”, notes the latest IMF report on Jordan.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

House Prices in United Arab Emirates

“The real estate market in the UAE has cooled down after expanding strongly in 2013 and the first half of 2014. By end-2014, sales price increases moderated in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and in March 2015, growth in residential sales prices turned slightly negative in both Emirates, in year-on-year terms (…). These developments are taking place amid increased supply, particularly in Dubai, and reduced demand associated with lower oil prices and appreciating US dollar, and following the introduction of mortgage regulations based on loan-to-value ratios and an increase in the property transfer fee in late 2013. With the additional new supply in the market, Dubai’s sales’ prices are expected to further decline over the course of the year, while constrained supply through 2017 will support prices in Abu Dhabi. (…) Price-to-rent ratios have declined since mid-2014 in both metropolitan areas, indicating a healthy correction in the UAE’s likely overpriced housing market”, says the IMF new report on UAE. 

“The real estate market in the UAE has cooled down after expanding strongly in 2013 and the first half of 2014. By end-2014, sales price increases moderated in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and in March 2015, growth in residential sales prices turned slightly negative in both Emirates, in year-on-year terms (…). These developments are taking place amid increased supply, particularly in Dubai, and reduced demand associated with lower oil prices and appreciating US dollar, and following the introduction of mortgage regulations based on loan-to-value ratios and an increase in the property transfer fee in late 2013. Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Price Expectations and the US Housing Boom

A new IMF paper by Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber looks at the shifts in house price expectations as an important driver of the US house price boom that preceded the financial crisis. 

The authors find “that the contribution of price expectation shocks to the U.S. housing boom in the 2000s has been substantial. In our baseline specification, price expectation shocks explain roughly 30% of the increase. Another 30% of the increase in house prices remains, however, unaccounted for by the four identified shocks. This indicates that attributing the entire residual that cannot be explained by standard shocks to price expectations will lead to an overestimation of their contribution. We also find that a model-based measure of house price expectations is strongly positively correlated with leads of a survey based measure of house price expectations. This indicates that our measure contains similar information as a survey-based measure, but tends to provide the information more timely. Our approach to identify price expectation shocks leaves the reason why expectations change open. When using an additional constraint to distinguish realistic from unrealistic price expectation shocks, we provide evidence that the housing boom was driven to an important extent by unrealistic price expectations.”

A new IMF paper by Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber looks at the shifts in house price expectations as an important driver of the US house price boom that preceded the financial crisis. 

The authors find “that the contribution of price expectation shocks to the U.S. housing boom in the 2000s has been substantial. In our baseline specification, price expectation shocks explain roughly 30% of the increase. Another 30% of the increase in house prices remains, Read the full article…

Posted by at 12:00 PM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

House Prices in Europe

“Credit
growth is still low and the housing market recovery is still at an early stage. Macroprudential policies
are the first option, although responsibility in this area is shared between the ECB and national
authorities” notes the IMF report on the Euro Area. 

“Credit
growth is still low and the housing market recovery is still at an early stage. Macroprudential policies
are the first option, although responsibility in this area is shared between the ECB and national
authorities” notes the IMF report on the Euro Area. 

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:20 PM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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