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Recession 2020?

An interesting presentation on recession dynamics by Tara M Sinclair from George Washington University. They answer three fundamental questions:

“1. Are we in a recession now?

2. When is the next recession coming?

3. What will the next recession look like? ”

 

Source: Recession 2020? Tara M. Sinclair @TaraSinc The George Washington UniversityResearch  Program on Forecasting

An interesting presentation on recession dynamics by Tara M Sinclair from George Washington University. They answer three fundamental questions:

“1. Are we in a recession now?

2. When is the next recession coming?

3. What will the next recession look like? ”

 

Source: Recession 2020? Tara M. Sinclair @TaraSinc The George Washington UniversityResearch  Program on Forecasting

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:14 PM

Labels: Forecasting Forum

Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices

From a new paper by Valerie Grossman, Enrique Martínez-García, Luis Bernardo Torres and Yongzhi Sun:

“This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas. We model their dynamic relationship taking into account demand- and supply-side housing fundamentals (personal disposable income per capita, long-term interest rates, and rural land prices) as well as their varying dependence on oil activity. We show the following: 1) Oil price shocks have limited pass-through to house prices—the highest pass-through is found among the most oil-dependent cities where, after 20 quarters, the cumulative response of house prices is 21 percent of the cumulative effect on oil prices. Still, among less oil-dependent urban areas, the house price response to a one standard deviation oil price shock is economically significant and comparable in magnitude to the response to a one standard deviation income shock. 2) Omitting oil prices when looking at housing markets in oil-producing areas biases empirical inferences by substantially overestimating the effect of income shocks on house prices. 3) The empirical relationship linking oil price fluctuations to house prices has remained largely stable over time, in spite of the significant changes in Texas’ oil sector with the onset of the shale revolution in the 2000s.”

 

From a new paper by Valerie Grossman, Enrique Martínez-García, Luis Bernardo Torres and Yongzhi Sun:

“This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas. We model their dynamic relationship taking into account demand- and supply-side housing fundamentals (personal disposable income per capita, long-term interest rates, and rural land prices) as well as their varying dependence on oil activity. We show the following: 1) Oil price shocks have limited pass-through to house prices—the highest pass-through is found among the most oil-dependent cities where,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 10:18 AM

Labels: Energy & Climate Change, Global Housing Watch

Housing View – October 11, 2019

On cross-country:

 

On the US:

 

On other countries:

  • [Canada] The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  • [Czech Republic] Czech Republic: Property price growth strong, for now – ING
  • [United Kingdom] Now is the time for the government to increase the supply of homes – The Guardian

On cross-country:

 

On the US:

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms?

From the IMF’s latest WEO analytical chapter:

“The pace of structural reforms in emerging market and developing economies was strong during the 1990s, but it has slowed since the early 2000s. Using a newly constructed database on structural reforms, this chapter finds that a reform push in such areas as governance, domestic and external finance, trade, and labor and product markets could deliver sizable output gains in the medium term. A major and comprehensive reform package might double the speed of convergence of the average emerging market and developing economy to the living standards of advanced economies, raising annual GDP growth by about 1 percentage point for some time. At the same time, reforms take several years to deliver, and some of them—easing job protection regulation and liberalizing domestic finance—may entail greater short-term costs when carried out in bad times; these are best implemented under favorable economic conditions and early in authorities’ electoral mandate. Reform gains also tend to be larger when governance and access to credit—two binding constraints on growth—are strong, and where labor market informality is higher—because reforms help reduce it. These findings underscore the importance of carefully tailoring reforms to country circumstances to maximize their benefits.”

From the IMF’s latest WEO analytical chapter:

“The pace of structural reforms in emerging market and developing economies was strong during the 1990s, but it has slowed since the early 2000s. Using a newly constructed database on structural reforms, this chapter finds that a reform push in such areas as governance, domestic and external finance, trade, and labor and product markets could deliver sizable output gains in the medium term.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 10:29 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Housing market in Thailand

From the IMF’s latest report on Thailand:

“Credit and housing markets are also cooling down. Total credit growth—including credit from nonresidents—moderated from 5.8 percent in 2018 to 4.8 percent year-on-year in 2019:Q1, led by declines in corporate borrowing. While loans to households picked up in 2018 and remained buoyant through 2019:Q1—driven by auto loans and new mortgages housing loan demand softened following the tightening of loan-to-value (LTVs) in April 2019, and condo prices declined by 1¾ percent (y/y) also reflecting weaker foreign demand. The housing market is already going through a period of adjustment consistent with the broad-based cooling of the Thai economy.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Thailand:

“Credit and housing markets are also cooling down. Total credit growth—including credit from nonresidents—moderated from 5.8 percent in 2018 to 4.8 percent year-on-year in 2019:Q1, led by declines in corporate borrowing. While loans to households picked up in 2018 and remained buoyant through 2019:Q1—driven by auto loans and new mortgages housing loan demand softened following the tightening of loan-to-value (LTVs) in April 2019, and condo prices declined by 1¾ percent (y/y) also reflecting weaker foreign demand.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 1:14 PM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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