The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• 10 housing markets where sellers are cutting home prices, per Redfin. Home price cuts are common in these 10 metros, drawn from Redfin’s ranking of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, led by Denver and Indianapolis – Quartz
• Rents Face Renewed Upward Pressure as the Housing Supply Wave Fades – Apollo
• A Punishing Housing Market Is Squeezing Renters. Higher mortgage rates and slowing residential construction are again giving landlords the upper hand. – New York Times
• Uptick for Non-Conventional Financing in 2025 – NAHB
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.1% year-over-year in August. FHFA House Prices Up 2.4% Year-over-year in August – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 11.0% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• US single-family home prices rise further in August, FHFA says – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• NMHC: “Apartment Market Conditions Weaken” in October Survey – Calculated Risk
• If You Care About Housing Abundance, Minimum Lot Sizes Deserve Much More Attention – AEI
• How a paperwork bottleneck adds 39 percent to your rent. See how many housing permits your metro area authorized this year and how that pace compares with previous years. – Washington Post
• Which Construction Occupations Will See the Largest Job Gains Over the Next Decade? – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in September. Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• US new home sales fall in September; median house price drops from year ago – Reuters
• High Frequency Data: Inventory Up, Demand Down Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• 10 housing markets where home sellers outnumber buyers. Miami, Tampa, Detroit, and other metros show how far home sellers outnumber buyers as U.S. buyer counts sink to a record low. – Quartz
• New Home Sales Slip Slightly in September – Realtor.com

On other developments:     

• The Trump Administration is Making Homeownership More Affordable – US Treasury
• Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Decreases Housing Costs for Americans – The White House
• Treasury Unveils New Rules for Big Investor Homebuyers After Congress Set Limits – Realtor.com
• Trump signs order aimed at reducing single-family housing costs – Reuters
• I joined Scott Galloway on the Prof G Pod. My conversation with Scott Galloway and Kyla Scanlon about the housing crisis – Home Economics
• Homes Are ‘Seriously Unaffordable’ in Nearly a Third of U.S. Counties, New Report Finds – Realtor.com
• A Quarter of Remodelers Started ADUs Over Past Twelve Months – NAHB
• Economics of Housing in the Tri-State Region – New York Fed
• Why Housing Affordability Is the Top Issue for Gen Z Voters Ahead of Midterms – Realtor.com
• H1 2026 Investor Report: Small Investors Take Over as Institutional Buyers Retreat – Realtor.com
• Affordability Challenges Push New Home Sales Lower – NAHB
• Builders’ Data Center Boost Fails to Offset Weak Housing Market – Bloomberg
• The Pain Keeps Piling Up for the US Housing Market – Bloomberg
• Home Vacancy and ‘Zombie’ Rates Tick Down in Fourth Quarter – ATTOM
• How to Thaw the Frozen Housing Market – Heritage Foundation

On cross-country:

• The housing crisis is now global. It shows just how undemocratic our nations have become. When we can’t even afford to rent or buy somewhere to live, we have to ask: did we give the financial sector too much power? – The Guardian
• Two Asian giants, one economic trap. Tokyo lost decades when a property bust led to an economic slump. Could the same phenomenon undo Xi Jinping’s ambitions? – FT
• The housing crisis is not only about rent. From Singapore to New York, the hidden affordability story lies in spending power, not housing costs. – DWS
• Africa’s explosive growth in cities. The continent’s urban centres are set to expand by 19mn people annually, or by nearly two Londons a year. But urbanisation is not following a familiar path – FT
• Socialize All Housing. People are right to want control over their homes and their futures. Socialized housing, not private ownership, can make that promise a reality for everyone. – Jacobin

Working papers and conferences:  

• The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata – San Francisco Fed
• Research Highlights the Broad Benefits of Homeownership – NAHB
• European housing markets – University of California
• The Welfare Impacts of Urban Renewal and Forced Relocation: Evidence from Chicago’s HOPE VI Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
• Income Inequality, Borrowing Constraints and Housing–Led Boom–Bust Cycles – SSRN
• Housing, Property Insurance, and Climate Risk: A Review of the Literature – SSRN
• The Global Evidence on Housing Price Determinants – SSRN   

On China:

• China’s Export Boom Masks Deep Economic Problems at Home. Even as China makes strides in areas such as AI, much of its domestic economy is dragged down by gloomy consumer sentiment and a real-estate slump – Wall Street Journal

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Meeting communiqué: Joint Ministerial Meeting on Housing Supply and Affordability, October 2026 – The Treasury
• [Australia] ‘Are they going to fall enough?’ The renters waiting for the house price downturn to change their fortunes. As property values fall across Australia, would-be home buyers share hope and scepticism that the soft market might be their big chance – The Guardian
• [Australia] House prices falling in every Australian capital city for first time in 15 years. House prices in Sydney are at a two-year low after falling 4.7% in the September quarter to $1.66m, according to Domain report – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Demand roars, supply whispers: Monetary policy and housing in Canada – Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Canada house prices vs peer countries and why we stand apart – CMHC
• [Portugal] Portugal housing protesters return to squares, vow to press on – Reuters
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Luxury Home Sales Fall From Record Levels as War Drags On – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market showing signs of mortgage rates impact, Rightmove says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Rising interest rates derail property recovery as buyers recut deals. ‘Dire’ mood in sector as surging bond yields threaten deals agreed just a few months ago – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK annual house prices rise at weakest pace since March, ONS says – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Why Americans have stopped buying new homes. Mortgage lock-in is preventing nearly 1m property sales a year – The Economist
• Rising Mortgage Rates Risk Plunging Housing Further Into Crisis. Mortgage rates have pushed above 7 percent and home prices remain elevated, hurting the prospects of would-be buyers. – New York Times
• America’s New Housing Market Is All About Luxury—and It Runs on Cash. Surging mortgage rates are sending many buyers to the sidelines, while affluent shoppers are driving overall prices higher with big cash purchases – Wall Street Journal
• Mapped: Where Millennials Own vs. Rent in America – Visual Capitalist

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Could Embracing Sprawl Ease California’s Housing Crunch? Among the measures up for a vote in November is one that would amend the state’s landmark environmental law and make it easier to build large housing developments outside cities. – New York Times
• Single-Family Permitting Declines Through August – NAHB
• The Fierce Battle to Control How Americans Buy and Sell Their Homes. Mega-brokerage Compass is taking more listings offline, sparking backlash from rivals who say the practice is upending decades of market transparency – Wall Street Journal
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.221 million Annual Rate in September – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Starts Down as Affordability Challenges Persist – NAHB
• Housing activity struggles under weight of high rates and costs – RBC
• Builder Sentiment Falls on Rising Rates – NAHB
• High Frequency Data: Housing Slump Deepens. Pending Home Sales Down 7.3% Year-over-year, Homebuilder Confidence Below Pandemic Low – Calculated Risk
• Pending Home Sales Plunge to All-Time Low in Troubling Sign for Fall Housing Market – Realtor.com
• U.S. Housing Starts Dropped Again in September – Wall Street Journal
• US single-family housing starts plunge; building permits hit 3-1/2-year low – Reuters
• Nearly One in Three Construction Workers are Hispanic – NAHB 
• Bank Regulation, Construction Financing, and the Supply of New Housing. Bank regulations introduced after the 2008 financial crisis reduced construction lending and new single-family home sales, contributing to higher house prices and increased market concentration among home builders. – Cato Institute

On other developments:    

• Owning Beats Renting Only About Half the Time. Every buy and sell year since 1975, after taxes and costs – Home Economics
• YIMBYs, NIMBYs, and the Housing Cold War. A conversation with Salim Furth, a “median normal YIMBY” – Home Economics
• Market Clock 2026 Q3: As Rates Top 7%, Buyers Gain Leverage but Lose Purchasing Power – Realtor.com
• September 2026 Rental Report: Median Asking Rent Declines at the Slowest Pace in 3 Years – Realtor.com 
• U.S. Housing Market Index Drops in October to Lowest Level Since June 2012 – Haver Analytics
• Housing is grim for builders, buyers, and homeowners right now – Axios
• Housing Market Update: It Ain’t Pretty. Axios: “Builders can’t afford to build, buyers can’t afford to buy, and even the people sitting pretty with pre-2022 mortgages can’t afford to move.” – Jared Bernstein
• Housing Looks Awful. These Housing-Related Stocks Don’t. – Wall Street Journal
• Stagnant Housing Market? Not for Luxury Homes. And, real-estate giant CBRE is acquiring a company that equips data centers in a $1 billion deal – Wall Street Journal
• Top Housing Economist Issues Grim Forecast Revision as Higher Rates Slam the Market – Realtor.com
• Home Affordability Remains Strained as Mortgage Rates Rise – ATTOM

From a paper by Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Régis Kouassi, Jianhong Liu, Joseph Moussa, Jean-Marc Natal, Andrea Paloschi, and Evgenia Weaver:

“This paper proposes a new high-frequency structural vector autoregression model that can disentangle the drivers of oil and natural gas prices in real time. In particular, it separately identifies actual supply disruptions from geopolitical-risk shocks that raise expectations of future supply shortfalls. Local projection analysis shows that macroeconomic effects differ across shocks. Oil supply shocks significantly affect aggregate prices and unemployment, usual central banks’ policy targets, whereas geopolitical supply risk shocks have only short-lived effects on prices and no effect on unemployment. All gas shocks generate persistent effects on the price level, but muted effects on unemployment. Historical price decompositions using the high-frequency model during the Russia-Ukraine war and the 2026 Middle East war show that energy prices rise due to geopolitical risk before supply disruptions materialize. Even after disruptions occur, fears of additional shortages continue to exert upward pressure on prices. These findings highlight the importance for policymakers to distinguish realized supply disruptions from geopolitical supply risk shocks.”

On cross-country:

• The long road home: Examining the global housing affordability crisis. Chronic supply-demand imbalances, elevated mortgage rates and rising ownership costs are straining housing affordability across many markets — a global problem that demands localized solutions. – JP Morgan
• RICS responds to EU call for evidence on Housing Supply and Affordability – RICS
• How New York Property Prices Compare Around the World – Visual Capitalist

Working papers and conferences:  

• Associate Professor Xi Yang examines how bank credit expansion shapes house prices and fertility – University of Auckland
• Seminar examines how anti-money laundering rules relate to house prices across OECD countries – University of Auckland
• Who benefits from upzoning? A 2016 zoning reform in São Paulo increased the ability of developers to supply housing units by lifting limitations on permitted densification on a block-by-block basis. – American Economic Association

On China:

• China Property: Past Global Housing Crises Point The Way To Recovery – S&P Global
• Cheap debt is not enough to get China’s homebuyers spending again. Policymakers should put more fiscal resources towards absorbing excess housing supply and restoring buyers’ confidence – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Spain] Spain’s Protesters See ‘Madness’ of Rising Rent and a ‘Martyr’ in Maricarmen. Thousands of protesters marched in Madrid on Thursday, a day after the death of María del Carmen Abascal, an 87-year-old whose eviction became a symbol of the country’s housing crisis. – New York Times
• [Spain] Spain’s rental dilemma: protecting tenants won’t fix the housing shortage – ING
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – September 2026 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Stall, Undercutting Rebound Expectations – The Globe and Mail
• [United Kingdom] Demand for tracker mortgages jumps as rates on fixed deals rise. Deals that follow the base rate look cheaper but are ‘not a free bet’ – FT