The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• The Outlook for US Housing in 2027 amid Rising Mortgage Rates – Goldman Sachs
• The Housing Market Is a Mess. So Why Aren’t Home Prices Falling? – Barron’s
• America’s renters are in serious trouble. Several gauges of their financial health are flashing red – The Economist
• Los Angeles Rental Report 2026Q3: Renters Catch a Break as New Supply Pushes Rents Lower; Buying Still Costs Nearly $5,000 More a Month – Realtor.com
• New York City Rental Report 2026Q3: Squeezed Both Ways—NYC Renters Face Record High Rents and 7% Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Asking Rents have likely Bottomed – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 1.9% Year-over-year. Punta Gorda House Prices Down 18.7% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 16.7%, Cape Coral Down 15.4% – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Climb in October Amid Accelerating Inflation – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Decline as Higher Rates Boost ARM Share – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Down 19% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Home Sales Outlook Falls, But Still-High Prices Could Support Spending – Richmond Fed
• Inside the $311 Million Land Grab to Create One of America’s Priciest Homes. A mystery billionaire bought 19 acres in prime Naples. Local real-estate agents say it’s a harbinger of things to come for the Florida coastal city – Wall Street Journal
• Student Housing Construction Rises in the Third Quarter – NAHB
• Just About Every Part of Building a House Is Getting More Expensive. Iran war, tariffs and AI build-out have pushed up costs of materials, labor and borrowing – Wall Street Journal
• Altos: Single-Family Inventory Back to 2019 Levels – Calculated Risk
• Private Residential Construction Slips as Remodeling Weakens – NAHB
• Interior Finishes: The Most Time-Consuming Stage of Single-family Construction – NAHB
• Construction Job Openings Rise in September – NAHB
• October 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: Buyers and Sellers Hit Pause as Rates Surge – Realtor.com

On other developments:     

• Immigration Slowdown Poised to Sharply Reduce Renter Household Growth – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Housing was bipartisan this year. November could change that. Democratic leaders were willing to compromise with Republicans on housing this year. A rising left-flank wants them to make fewer concessions. – Politico
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rates Increased in September – Calculated Risk
• Housing’s Share of the Economy Falls Again as It Continues to Face Headwinds – NAHB 
• Half of Americans’ Spending Goes to Housing and Food, Most in 15 Years – Bloomberg
• Two Innovative Models Expanding Affordable Housing in the Southeast – Atlanta Fed
• The metros where the hidden costs of owning a home are highest in 2026, according to Zillow. Maintenance, taxes, and insurance add $18,883 to $25,111 a year in 10 of the 30 metros Zillow and Thumbtack studied for 2026. – Quartz
• Homeowners Use Savings, Equity, and Insurance to Fund Remodeling – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Shadow ‘accidental landlord’ housing market supply could be looming, says giant institutional landlord. Invitation Homes CEO Dallas Tanner: ‘What do the mom and pops do, that are maybe sitting on a home they’re trying to sell? Does that come back into play as well?’ – Fast Company
• The Housing Ballot Initiatives To Watch. Across the country, voters will decide whether to shrink minimum lot sizes, roll back environmental review laws, and cut property taxes. – Reason 
• Housing Since 2020: A Visual Story. Booms, Busts, and Bystanders – Home Economics
• The U.S. housing market just flashed a major warning sign. Here’s what the latest numbers reveal. Homes under contract plunged 10.5% in October, the biggest annual decline in nearly three years, as elevated mortgage rates pushed buyers to the sidelines. – Fast Company
• Zillow Traffic Slides as High Mortgage Rates Freeze Housing Market. The company swung to a third-quarter loss of $158 million, down from a profit of $10 million the year prior – Wall Street Journal
• Workers Building Affordable Housing Deserve Good Wages and Benefits. Cities and states are trying to make sure that the workers who build affordable housing can afford a decent life. – Center for American Progress
• US Voters Approve $67 Billion of Borrowing for Schools, Housing – Bloomberg

From Paul Krugman:

“Oh, my. Bill Nordhaus has died. He was a great economist, an inspiring teacher, a wonderful academic citizen — and my first mentor. As an undergrad I took a seminar taught by Bill and Tjalling Koopmans on the economics of exhaustible resources. Bill liked my term paper well enough to hire me as a research assistant on his classic 1973 paper “The Allocation of Energy Resources.” 

Bill taught me how to be an economist, how to puzzle out a complex real issue and try to frame a model to make sense of that issue. He also showed me that economics can and should be a mission as well as a job. I’ll write more about his contribution and what it was like to work with him soon, probably after the midterms, when I have time to do it right.”

On cross-country:

• Spain’s housing quandary stretches worldwide – Reuters
• Public Hearing on housing markets without speculation – European Parliament

On China:

• China Property Woes Bring Strains to Huafa’s $62 Billion of Debt – Bloomberg
• A Tale of Two Chinas. China’s economy is deeply unbalanced, with a battered real-estate sector, weak consumption, and stark regional disparities coexisting with dynamic tech and export sectors. But provided that political stability is maintained, China could continue to be a global powerhouse even as hundreds of millions of its citizens remain poor. – Project Syndicate

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Developers warn federal aluminium tariff will send housing to the wall – AFR
• [Australia] Banks Loosen Loan Approvals in Housing Slump – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] Homes selling for less than asking price – but only just, Realestate.co.nz says – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Carney’s Housing Agency Vows to Build as Canada Prices Plunge – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Price of new single-detached homes in Vancouver 5X more than construction cost; 2X more in Calgary – Fraser Institute
• [Germany] You can’t confiscate your way out of a housing shortage. Threatening property rights is a peculiar way to encourage more construction. – Washington Post
• [Germany] German home prices stagnate as interest rates pressure market, IW data show – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s ‘Apartment Horror’ Films Skewer Its Ghastly Property Market. In one of the world’s least affordable housing markets, high-density housing is a backdrop for exploring superstition and socioeconomic anxiety. – New York Times
• [Hong Kong] Why Hong Kong rents are hitting records while home price gains lose momentum – South China Morning Post
• [Portugal] Thousands rally outside Portugal’s parliament over housing crisis, police operations – Reuters
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Real Estate Market Insights | Q3 2026 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] UK Homebuilders Fall as First Time Buyer Support Disappoints – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Autumn Budget 2026: key messages for homeowners, landlords and first-time buyers. Even though it only applies to first-time buyers purchasing a new-build property, from a housing perspective by far the most important element of the Budget was the clarification of how the Your First Home scheme will operate. – Savills

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• 10 housing markets where sellers are cutting home prices, per Redfin. Home price cuts are common in these 10 metros, drawn from Redfin’s ranking of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, led by Denver and Indianapolis – Quartz
• Rents Face Renewed Upward Pressure as the Housing Supply Wave Fades – Apollo
• A Punishing Housing Market Is Squeezing Renters. Higher mortgage rates and slowing residential construction are again giving landlords the upper hand. – New York Times
• Uptick for Non-Conventional Financing in 2025 – NAHB
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.1% year-over-year in August. FHFA House Prices Up 2.4% Year-over-year in August – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 11.0% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• US single-family home prices rise further in August, FHFA says – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• NMHC: “Apartment Market Conditions Weaken” in October Survey – Calculated Risk
• If You Care About Housing Abundance, Minimum Lot Sizes Deserve Much More Attention – AEI
• How a paperwork bottleneck adds 39 percent to your rent. See how many housing permits your metro area authorized this year and how that pace compares with previous years. – Washington Post
• Which Construction Occupations Will See the Largest Job Gains Over the Next Decade? – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in September. Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• US new home sales fall in September; median house price drops from year ago – Reuters
• High Frequency Data: Inventory Up, Demand Down Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• 10 housing markets where home sellers outnumber buyers. Miami, Tampa, Detroit, and other metros show how far home sellers outnumber buyers as U.S. buyer counts sink to a record low. – Quartz
• New Home Sales Slip Slightly in September – Realtor.com

On other developments:     

• The Trump Administration is Making Homeownership More Affordable – US Treasury
• Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Decreases Housing Costs for Americans – The White House
• Treasury Unveils New Rules for Big Investor Homebuyers After Congress Set Limits – Realtor.com
• Trump signs order aimed at reducing single-family housing costs – Reuters
• I joined Scott Galloway on the Prof G Pod. My conversation with Scott Galloway and Kyla Scanlon about the housing crisis – Home Economics
• Homes Are ‘Seriously Unaffordable’ in Nearly a Third of U.S. Counties, New Report Finds – Realtor.com
• A Quarter of Remodelers Started ADUs Over Past Twelve Months – NAHB
• Economics of Housing in the Tri-State Region – New York Fed
• Why Housing Affordability Is the Top Issue for Gen Z Voters Ahead of Midterms – Realtor.com
• H1 2026 Investor Report: Small Investors Take Over as Institutional Buyers Retreat – Realtor.com
• Affordability Challenges Push New Home Sales Lower – NAHB
• Builders’ Data Center Boost Fails to Offset Weak Housing Market – Bloomberg
• The Pain Keeps Piling Up for the US Housing Market – Bloomberg
• Home Vacancy and ‘Zombie’ Rates Tick Down in Fourth Quarter – ATTOM
• How to Thaw the Frozen Housing Market – Heritage Foundation

On cross-country:

• The housing crisis is now global. It shows just how undemocratic our nations have become. When we can’t even afford to rent or buy somewhere to live, we have to ask: did we give the financial sector too much power? – The Guardian
• Two Asian giants, one economic trap. Tokyo lost decades when a property bust led to an economic slump. Could the same phenomenon undo Xi Jinping’s ambitions? – FT
• The housing crisis is not only about rent. From Singapore to New York, the hidden affordability story lies in spending power, not housing costs. – DWS
• Africa’s explosive growth in cities. The continent’s urban centres are set to expand by 19mn people annually, or by nearly two Londons a year. But urbanisation is not following a familiar path – FT
• Socialize All Housing. People are right to want control over their homes and their futures. Socialized housing, not private ownership, can make that promise a reality for everyone. – Jacobin

Working papers and conferences:  

• The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata – San Francisco Fed
• Research Highlights the Broad Benefits of Homeownership – NAHB
• European housing markets – University of California
• The Welfare Impacts of Urban Renewal and Forced Relocation: Evidence from Chicago’s HOPE VI Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
• Income Inequality, Borrowing Constraints and Housing–Led Boom–Bust Cycles – SSRN
• Housing, Property Insurance, and Climate Risk: A Review of the Literature – SSRN
• The Global Evidence on Housing Price Determinants – SSRN   

On China:

• China’s Export Boom Masks Deep Economic Problems at Home. Even as China makes strides in areas such as AI, much of its domestic economy is dragged down by gloomy consumer sentiment and a real-estate slump – Wall Street Journal

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Meeting communiqué: Joint Ministerial Meeting on Housing Supply and Affordability, October 2026 – The Treasury
• [Australia] ‘Are they going to fall enough?’ The renters waiting for the house price downturn to change their fortunes. As property values fall across Australia, would-be home buyers share hope and scepticism that the soft market might be their big chance – The Guardian
• [Australia] House prices falling in every Australian capital city for first time in 15 years. House prices in Sydney are at a two-year low after falling 4.7% in the September quarter to $1.66m, according to Domain report – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Demand roars, supply whispers: Monetary policy and housing in Canada – Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Canada house prices vs peer countries and why we stand apart – CMHC
• [Portugal] Portugal housing protesters return to squares, vow to press on – Reuters
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Luxury Home Sales Fall From Record Levels as War Drags On – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market showing signs of mortgage rates impact, Rightmove says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Rising interest rates derail property recovery as buyers recut deals. ‘Dire’ mood in sector as surging bond yields threaten deals agreed just a few months ago – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK annual house prices rise at weakest pace since March, ONS says – Reuters