Inclusive Growth

Global Housing Watch

Forecasting Forum

Energy & Climate Change

Housing View – May 24, 2019

On cross-country:

 

On rent control:

 

On the US:

  • Press Briefing on the Evolution and Future of Homeownership – Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • An expert’s 7 principles for solving America’s housing crisis – Vox
  • Monetary Policy, Housing Rents, and Inflation Dynamics – Federal Reserve Board
  • The Great Recession, education, race, and homeownership – Economic Policy Institute
  • Why Isn’t The Black Homeownership Rate Higher Today Than When The 1968 Fair Housing Act Became Law? – Forbes
  • ‘Fairbnb’ Wants to Be the Unproblematic Alternative to Airbnb – Citylab
  • Trump Administration Wants To Cut Funding For Public Housing Repairs – NPR
  • California Today: Lawmakers Shelve a Potential Remedy to the Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • 3 Top REITs With High Dividend Yields Above 5% And Secure Payouts – Seeking Alpha
  • Labor Demand Shocks and Housing Prices Across the United States: Does One Size Fit All? – Economic Development Quarterly
  • Undersupply in Housing Inventory – CoreLogic
  • Spain’s Richest Person Bets Billions on Prime U.S. Real Estate – Bloomberg
  • Despite Resistance, Cities Turn to Density to Tackle Housing Inequality – CityLab
  • Special Incentive for Property Buyers: A Foreign Passport – New York Times
  • Shortage of cheaper houses stifles U.S. homes sales – Reuters
  • California’s big housing bill tanked. Newsom is partly to blame – Los Angeles Times
  • How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

 

On other countries:

  • [Canada] Real estate prices and banking performance: evidence from Canada – Journal of Economics and Finance
  • [India] Affordable Housing as Human Right – Yale University
  • [Portugal] The impact of Airbnb on residential property values and rents: evidence from Portugal – Ideas
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing: Resilient in the face of turmoil – ING

On cross-country:

 

On rent control:

  • Housing Supply Dynamics under Rent Control: What Can Evictions Tell Us?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Shorter working weeks needed to tackle climate crisis

From EconoSpeak:

“The U.K. think tank Autonomy has issued a report calling for much shorter working weeks, “The Ecological Limits of Work: on carbon emissions, carbon budgets and working time,” which is featured in a Guardian article published today, “Much shorter working weeks needed to tackle climate crisis – study.”

People across Europe will need to work drastically fewer hours to avoid disastrous climate heating unless there is a radical decarbonising of the economy, according to a study.

The research, from thinktank Autonomy, shows workers in the UK would need to move to nine-hour weeks to keep the country on track to avoid more than 2C of heating at current carbon intensity levels. Similar reductions were found to be necessary in Sweden and Germany.

The findings are based on OECD and UN data on greenhouse gas emissions per industry in the three countries. It found that at current carbon levels, all three would require a drastic reduction in working hours as well as urgent measures to decarbonise the economy to prevent climate breakdown.

Will Stronge, the director of Autonomy, said the research highlighted the need to include reductions in working hours as part of the efforts to address the climate emergency.”

From EconoSpeak:

“The U.K. think tank Autonomy has issued a report calling for much shorter working weeks, “The Ecological Limits of Work: on carbon emissions, carbon budgets and working time,” which is featured in a Guardian article published today, “Much shorter working weeks needed to tackle climate crisis – study.”

People across Europe will need to work drastically fewer hours to avoid disastrous climate heating unless there is a radical decarbonising of the economy,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:57 AM

Labels: Energy & Climate Change

How inequality makes us poorer

From Stumbling and Mumbling:

“I welcome the Deaton report into inequality. I especially like its emphasis (pdf)upon the causes of inequality:

To understand whether inequality is a problem, we need to understand the sources of inequality, views of what is fair and the implications of inequality as well as the levels of inequality. Are present levels of inequalities due to well-deserved rewards or to unfair bargaining power, regulatory failure or political capture?

I fear, however, that there might be something missing here – the impact that inequality has upon economic performance.

My chart shows the point. It shows the 20-year annualized rate of growth in GDP per worker-hour. It’s clear that this was much stronger during the relatively egalitarian period from 1945 to the mid-70s than it was before or since, when inequality was higher.

This might, of course, be coincidence: maybe WWII caused both a backlog of investment and innovation which allowed a subsequent growth spurt and a desire for greater equality.

Or it might not. This is not the only evidence for the possibility that inequality is bad for growth. Roland Benabou gave the example (pdf) of how egalitarian South Korea has done much better than the unequal Philippines. And IMF researchers have found (pdf) a “strong negative relation” between inequality and the rate and duration of subsequent growth spells across 153 countries between 1960 and 2010.”

 

From Stumbling and Mumbling:

“I welcome the Deaton report into inequality. I especially like its emphasis (pdf)upon the causes of inequality:

To understand whether inequality is a problem, we need to understand the sources of inequality, views of what is fair and the implications of inequality as well as the levels of inequality. Are present levels of inequalities due to well-deserved rewards or to unfair bargaining power,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 8:17 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Climate Change Heterogeneity

From Francis Diebold:

“One can only go so far in climate econometrics studying time series like the proverbial “global average temperature”, just as one can only go so far in macroeconomics with the proverbial “representative agent”.  Disaggregation will be key to additional progress, as different people in different places experience different climate “treatments” and different economic outcomes.  The impressive new paper below begins to confront the massive tasks of data collection, manipulation, analysis, and visualization, in the context of a disaggregated analysis of the effects of temperature change on aggregate output.

“Climatic Constraints on Aggregate Economic Output”, by Marshall Burke and Vincent Tanutama, NBER Working Paper No. 25779, 2019.

Abstract:  Efficient responses to climate change require accurate estimates of both aggregate damages and where and to whom they occur. While specific case studies and simulations have suggested that climate change disproportionately affects the poor, large-scale direct evidence of the magnitude and origins of this disparity is lacking. Similarly, evidence on aggregate damages, which is a central input into the evaluation of mitigation policy, often relies on country-level data whose accuracy has been questioned. Here we assemble longitudinal data on economic output from over 11,000 districts across 37 countries, including previously nondigitized sources in multiple languages, to assess both the aggregate and distributional impacts of warming temperatures. We find that local-level growth in aggregate output responds non-linearly to temperature across all regions, with output peaking at cooler temperatures (<10°C) than estimated in earlier country analyses and declining steeply thereafter. Long difference estimates of the impact of longer-term (decadal) trends in temperature on income are larger than estimates from an annual panel model, providing additional evidence for growth effects. Impacts of a given temperature exposure do not vary meaningfully between rich and poor regions, but exposure to damaging temperatures is much more common in poor regions. These results indicate that additional warming will exacerbate inequality, particularly across countries, and that economic development alone will be unlikely to reduce damages, as commonly hypothesized. We estimate that since 2000, warming has already cost both the US and the EU at least $4 trillion in lost output, and tropical countries are >5% poorer than they would have been without this warming.”

From Francis Diebold:

“One can only go so far in climate econometrics studying time series like the proverbial “global average temperature”, just as one can only go so far in macroeconomics with the proverbial “representative agent”.  Disaggregation will be key to additional progress, as different people in different places experience different climate “treatments” and different economic outcomes.  The impressive new paper below begins to confront the massive tasks of data collection,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 8:15 AM

Labels: Energy & Climate Change

The Rise of Robots in China

From a new paper on robot adoption in China

“China is the world’s largest user of industrial robots. In 2016, sales of industrial robots in China reached 87,000 units, accounting for around 30 percent of the global market. To put this number in perspective, robot sales in all of Europe and the Americas in 2016 reached 97,300 units (according to data from the International Federation of Robotics). Between 2005 and 2016, the operational stock of industrial robots in China increased at an annual average rate of 38 percent. In this paper, we describe the adoption of robots by China’s manufacturers using both aggregate industry-level and firm-level data, and we provide possible explanations from both the supply and demand sides for why robot use has risen so quickly in China. A key contribution of this paper is that we have collected some of the world’s first data on firms’ robot adoption behaviors with our China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES), which contains the first firm-level data that is representative of the entire Chinese manufacturing sector.”

From a new paper on robot adoption in China

“China is the world’s largest user of industrial robots. In 2016, sales of industrial robots in China reached 87,000 units, accounting for around 30 percent of the global market. To put this number in perspective, robot sales in all of Europe and the Americas in 2016 reached 97,300 units (according to data from the International Federation of Robotics). Between 2005 and 2016,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 6:02 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

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