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Housing View – April 19, 2019

On cross-country:

  • “The housing affordability gap is equivalent to 1% of global GDP” – Housing Europe
  • Residential investment opportunities in Africa – which sectors are on the rise? – Knight Frank
  • The Economic Defense of Sprawl (And What’s Wrong With It) – Planetizen
  • Connecting commodities to house price booms – Financial Times

 

On the US:

 

On other countries:

  • [Canada] China’s Property Market Is Feeling the Stimulus Effect – Bloomberg
  • [China] Housing Policy and Economic Growth in China – Reserve Bank of Australia
  • [China] Building a Case For Chinese Property – Wall Street Journal
  • [China] Shenzhen joins top five cities with most expensive housing – Financial Times
  • [Egypt] Egypt’s house prices falling sharply – Global Property Guide
  • [Germany] A referendum to expropriate apartments from big landlords in Berlin – The Economist
  • [Germany] Berlin Housing Backlash Spurs Drive to Nationalize Real Estate – Bloomberg
  • [Germany] In Berlin, rising rents fuel a movement urging city government to buy back apartments – Los Angels Times
  • [Germany] Capital Flows, Real Estate, and City Cycles: Micro Evidence from the German Boom – Deutsche Bundesbank
  • [Hungary] Hungary prepares rate fixing plan for $3.16 bln mortgage stock – Reuters
  • [Ireland] Brexit Jobs Spur Dublin Real Estate Boom – Bloomberg
  • [United Arab Emirates] UAE’s property prices fall further – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] Council housing is making a comeback in Britain – The Economist
  • [United Kingdom] Landlords face curbs on evicting tenants at short notice – Financial Times

On cross-country:

  • “The housing affordability gap is equivalent to 1% of global GDP” – Housing Europe
  • Residential investment opportunities in Africa – which sectors are on the rise? – Knight Frank
  • The Economic Defense of Sprawl (And What’s Wrong With It) – Planetizen
  • Connecting commodities to house price booms – Financial Times

 

On the US:

  • The Democratic coalition is split over housing costs in cities – The Economist
  • When’s the Next Housing Crisis?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

The Captain Swing Riots; Workers and Threshing Machines in the 1830s

From a new post by Timothy Taylor:

“Between the summer of 1830 and the summer of 1832, riots swept through the English countryside. Over no more than two years, 3,000 riots broke out – by far the largest case of popular unrest in England since 1700. During the riots, rural laborers burned down farmhouses, expelled overseers of the poor and sent threatening letters to landlords and farmers signed by the mythical character known as Captain Swing. Most of all, workers attacked and destroyed threshing machines.”

“Here’s a figure showing locations of the Captain Swing riots. The authors [Bruno Caprettini and  Joachim Voth (2018)] collect evidence about where threshing machines were being adopted based on newspaper advertisements for the sale of farms–which listed threshing machines at the farm as well as other property included with the sale. They show a correlation between the presence of more threshing machines and rioting. But as always, correlation doesn’t necessarily  mean causation. For example, perhaps areas where local workers were already more rebellious and uncooperative were more likely to adopt threshing machines, and the riots that followed only show why local farmers didn’t want to deal with their local workers.

Thus, the authors also collect evidence on what areas were especially good soil for wheat, which makes using a thresher more likely, and what areas had water-power available to run threshers. it turns out that these areas are also where the threshers were more likely to be adopted. So a more plausible explanation seems to be that the new technology was adopted where it was most likely to be effective, not because of pre-existing local stroppiness.”

From a new post by Timothy Taylor:

“Between the summer of 1830 and the summer of 1832, riots swept through the English countryside. Over no more than two years, 3,000 riots broke out – by far the largest case of popular unrest in England since 1700. During the riots, rural laborers burned down farmhouses, expelled overseers of the poor and sent threatening letters to landlords and farmers signed by the mythical character known as Captain Swing.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 2:58 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

It’s too soon for optimism about convergence

From VoxEU post by Paul Johnson and Chris Papageorgiou:

“The recent wave of growth in several developing economies has led to many analysts to claim that poorer countries are catching up with advanced economies. This column argues that, with the exception of a few countries in Asia which exhibited transformational growth, most of the economic achievements in developing economies have been the result of removing inefficiencies which are merely one-off level effects. While these effects are not unimportant and are necessary in the process of development, they do not imply ongoing economic growth.

In the past 50 years or so, the gap between average living standards in the poorest countries of the world and those in the richest countries has grown markedly. This unwelcome change is contrary to the proposition that less advanced economies ought to be able to catch up to more advanced economies through capital accumulation and technology transfer. Although the proposition wasn’t new, Abramowitz’s (1986) and Baumol’s (1986) examinations of its veracity as a negative correlation between initial per capita income levels and subsequent growth in per capita income, initiated a vast literature testing the so-called convergence hypothesis.1 Following Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1990), the catch-up approach to the convergence hypothesis became known as β-convergence.2

Table 1 provides some insight into what has driven the widening gap between the poorest countries and the richest countries. It shows decadal average per capita GDP growth rates for low, upper-middle, and high-income countries (LICs, MICs, and HICs respectively) over the 50-year period from 1960 to 2010.

Table 1 Decadal average per capita GDP growth (%) by income

Notes: This table is an abridged version of Table 2 in Johnson and Papageorgiou (2018) where data sources and other details are given. There are 29 HICs, 68 MICs, and 51 LICs. Appendix Table A.1 in Johnson and Papageorgiou (2018) lists the countries in each group.

Despite the slowdown in their average growth rates over this period, the HICs have typically grown more quickly than the MICs, which in turn have grown more quickly than the LICs. These differences are the exact opposite of the pattern required for catching up to be observed, and so it is hardly a surprise that the dispersion of per capita GDP across countries has grown markedly since 1960. This growth is documented in Figure 1, which plots the standard deviation of the cross-country distribution of GDP per capita for a constant group of countries from 1960 to 2010 and shows that, apart from a small decline in the very late 2000s, the dispersion has risen steadily since 1960.

In addition to lagging that of the HICs and MICs, the growth experience of the poorest countries from 1960 to 2010 has been heterogeneous, both across countries and over time. Table 1 shows that the LICs experienced a continuous decline in growth rates in every decade from the 1960s to the 1990s, with negative growth rates in the 1980s and 1990s, before the surprising and unprecedented resurgence of growth in the 2000s. The MICs saw a similar resurgence in the 2000s although their slowing in the 1980s did not produce the negative growth rates experienced in the LICs.

Table 1 also makes the distinction between what are commonly called fragile and non-fragile LICs. Fragile states are those facing political frailty, characterised by weak institutional capacity, poor governance, corruption, and conflict. This distinction illuminates the marked differences in the growth experiences of the fragile LICs and the non-fragile of LICs, most notably in the 1990s and 2000s when the annual average growth rates differ by over 2 percentage points. That is, while there is a lot of optimism over the most recent growth acceleration in LICs, aggregating their experience masks the fact that only about half of the LICs are contributing to the resurgence while the rest are stagnant.”

Continue reading here.

From VoxEU post by Paul Johnson and Chris Papageorgiou:

“The recent wave of growth in several developing economies has led to many analysts to claim that poorer countries are catching up with advanced economies. This column argues that, with the exception of a few countries in Asia which exhibited transformational growth, most of the economic achievements in developing economies have been the result of removing inefficiencies which are merely one-off level effects.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:44 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

House Prices in Myanmar

From the IMF’s latest report on Myanmar:

“However, the near-term outlook has weakened. Economic growth is expected to remain below potential (…) in 2018/19 due to weakening export demand and subdued private construction activity related to the deleveraging by banks and corporates as real estate prices continue to correct from elevated levels.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Myanmar:

“However, the near-term outlook has weakened. Economic growth is expected to remain below potential (…) in 2018/19 due to weakening export demand and subdued private construction activity related to the deleveraging by banks and corporates as real estate prices continue to correct from elevated levels.”

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:50 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – April 12, 2019

On cross-country:

 

On the US:

 

On other countries:

  • [Canada] Chinese Real-Estate Investors Wary of Vancouver Head to Toronto – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canadian Home Building Rebounds From Deep Freeze: Housing Update – Bloomberg
  • [China] China’s Easing of Residency Requirements Could Boost Cooling Property Market – Bloomberg
  • [Czech Republic] Czech Republic’s housing structure – ING
  • [Germany] Housing for the People – Jacobin
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong plans to house 1 million people on artificial islands – World Economic Forum
  • [Lithuania] Lithuania’s modest house price rises – Global Property Guide
  • [Netherlands] ING: Expats and foreign students raise Amsterdam house prices – ING
  • [Romania] Romania’s housing market cooling – Global Property Guide
  • [Spain] Spain’s housing market continues to grow stronger – Global Property Guide
  • [South Africa] Johannesburg’s hipster gentrification project is at risk of crumbling – Quartz
  • [Sweden] Sweden’s house price boom is officially over – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] Construction Sector: Modernisation and Sustainable Housing Supply – UK Parliament
  • [United Kingdom] HBF Policy Conference 2019: ‘Confronting the housing crisis’, John Stewart memorial presentation – London School of Economics

On cross-country:

 

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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