The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Rates Hit a Nine-Month High in Blow to Prime Buying Season. The 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.51% this week and looks poised to keep rising – Wall Street Journal
• Higher Rates, More Renovations – Apollo
• An Option That Can Help Cut Housing Prices Catches On. Preapproved plans trim weeks or months off the process of getting a building permit. “Every month of delay adds costs that ultimately land on the buyer,” one housing expert said. – New York Times
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March. FHFA House Prices Up 0.1% in March; Up 1.7% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• AEI National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index: April 2026 – AEI
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.7% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 10.3% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• U.S. House Prices Rise 1.7 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.5 percent Quarter over Quarter – FHFA
• Loans for Home Purchase at 12-Year Low – ATTOM
• US mortgage rate rises to nine-month high, worsening affordability again – Reuters
• Bipartisan Bill Would Boost Rental Housing Supply With New Deduction – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• US single-family housing starts tumble in April – Reuters
• Northeast and Midwest housing markets are the tightest heading into summer 2026. With less overvaluation, lower exposure to the recent migration pullback, and fewer homebuilders offering large incentives, active inventory across these regions remains relatively tight. – Fast Company
• Custom Home Building – A Bright Spot for Construction – NAHB
• Can This Guy Get People to Live in America’s Emptiest Downtown? Developer Asher Luzzatto has targeted Denver for one of the most radical experiments yet in converting vacant commercial space into residential units – Wall Street Journal
• First Quarter 2026 Multifamily Construction Data – NAHB
• The Housing Market’s Latest Hurdles: Copper, Lumber, Diesel and Aluminum. Typical American homes use more than 400 pounds of copper—and that’s a problem when prices soar – Wall Street Journal

On other developments:    

• Mixed Signals: A Housing Update for the Washington, D.C., Metro Area – Richmond Fed
• These Red-Hot Housing Markets Are Finally Getting More Attainable. A stark inventory mismatch is bedeviling housing markets across the country, but areas like Denver and Honolulu are showing improvement – Wall Street Journal
• 2 progressive titans on Capitol Hill split over housing bill. Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters have partnered with Republicans in their respective chambers — instead of each other — on a landmark housing bill. – Politico
• The Apartment Megamerger That Shows Landlords Are in Trouble. Equity Residential and AvalonBay’s $69 billion deal follows years of weak profits and slow to no rent growth – Wall Street Journal
• Congress Has a Housing Bill. Trump Has Other Priorities – Bloomberg
• The White House wants to eliminate housing funds. Republicans aren’t having it. – Politico
• How the Iran War Put Housing’s Spring Thaw Back on Ice – Wall Street Journal
• Mamdani targets housing holdouts. The city will explore land use changes in areas with the lowest rates of affordable housing production. – Politico
• Will Congress Pass the Housing Bill? Trump has been trying to kill bipartisanship, but this is one bipartisan bill that Trump desperately needs. – The American Prospect
• A Bipartisan Housing Fiasco. The new House legislation will raise costs and give more power to regulators. – Wall Street Journal
• ‘Symbolic about who’s in charge’: Lawmakers vote to crack down on Wall Street landlords. A popular policy to limit large institutional investors’ ownership of housing is unlikely to impact most Americans. – Politico
•  Luxury Buyers From Colombia Are Snapping Up South Florida Homes in Search of a Real Estate Safety Net – Realtor.com
• How the Iran War Put Housing’s Spring Thaw Back on Ice – Wall Street Journal
• America’s housing market decline is ‘no longer just a Sun Belt story’—LA and Dallas are tumbling, too – Fortune
• Zohran Mamdani’s housing confiscation scheme. The New York mayor wants to seize properties from landlords who don’t maintain their units. – Washington Post
• Mamdani pledges housing ‘transformation’ to tackle central affordability challenge. The mayor is not reinventing the wheel on many housing issues and is leaning into policies championed by his predecessors. – Politico
• How Chattanooga Boosted Affordable Housing Without Direct Subsidies – Realtor.com

On cross-country:

• To understand European voters’ anger, look at their rent bills. Rent-control policies are making Europe’s housing shortage worse – The Economist
• Mortgage costs rise sharply on Middle East conflict. Home loans have become more expensive in North America and Europe despite central banks keeping rates on hold – FT
• Housing at the core of human development. Solutions for shelter and inequality – UNDP
• How is the housing situation in the EU? – Eurostat

Working papers and conferences:

• Flood Risk, Insurance, and Housing in the United States – NBER
• The Cost of Intermediary Market Power for Distressed Borrowers – NBER
• Under one roof: housing and inflation expectations – Bank of England 
• The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data – St. Louis Fed
• Fast Locations and Slowing Mobility – Philadelphia Fed
• Why Mortgage Rates Exceed Treasury Yields – Boston Fed

On China:

• Fallout from China housing slowdown grinds on in offshore courts. Bondholders might balk at the recoveries offered so far, but any remedies involve complex negotiations – FT
• China’s Housing Slump Shows Signs of Bottoming Out. We’ve Been Here Before. Property prices in Shanghai, in particular, are rebounding, but the national market still faces an enormous overhang — 90 million empty or unfinished apartments. – New York Times

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s housing affordability expected to worsen and homelessness soar under fossil-fuelled future. Rents will rise and homelessness quadruple in a decade unless serious steps to cut emissions are taken, University of Sydney researchers find – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia’s property tax overhaul unpopular with voters, polls show – Reuters
• [Australia] Wasted space: Axe car-parking rules to ease the housing crisis – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] How Labor’s budget hit the brakes on Australia’s housing market. Economists believe home values are set for their first national slump since 2022, though Australia’s persistent housing shortage means any fall would be short term – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] Housing market confidence takes a tumble as interest rates, inflation rise – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian Home Sales — April 2026 – Scotiabank
• [Canada] Canadian home sales rise in April, prices edge lower – Reuters
• [Chile] Chile Mortgage Rates Hit Four-Year Low, Easing Industry Crisis – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Price Rally Gains Pace Ahead of BOK Decision – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Precios de la vivienda en México: Los estados más caros y más baratos – El Economista
• [Spain] National Housing Plan: limited scope in public supply – BBVA
• [United Arab Emirates] Where expat escapees from Dubai end up. Will they ever return? – The Economist
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Residential Real Estate April 2026 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] Housing market in England and Wales weakening due to Iran war, say estate agents. Homebuyers more cautious due to possible mortgage rate rises and higher inflation as sellers sit on properties – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] The end of the mortgage broker? How AI is transforming the UK property market. Home loans and the buying process are ripe for disruption by technology – FT
• [United Kingdom] How a bold housing pivot could rescue Britain’s PM – Reuters

From a paper by Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar:

“We examine the responsiveness of labor participation, unemployment, and labor migration to exogenous variations in labor demand. Our empirical approach considers four instruments for regional labor demand commonly used in the literature. Empirically, we find that labor migration is a significant margin of adjustment for all our instruments. Following an increase in regional labor demand, the initial increase in employment is accounted for mainly by a reduction in unemployment. Over time however, net labor in-migration becomes the dominant factor contributing to increased regional employment. After five years, roughly 60 percent of the increase in employment is explained by the change in population. Responses of labor migration are strongest for individuals age 20–35. Based on historical data back to the 1950s, we find no evidence of a decline in the elasticity of migration to changes in employment.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q1 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Prices: Groceries, Mortgages, Stocks vs. Bonds – Jared Bernstein
• US pending home sales  increase further; higher mortgage rates remain a constraint – Reuters
• A Risky, Unconventional Mortgage Is on the Rise Again. Share of mortgages using alternative lending practices doubled in recent years, with lenders trying to get more business in a stalled housing market – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Permits Continue to Weaken in Early 2026 – NAHB
• Who Drives Remodeling Spending? – NAHB
• Delivering value: Building housing on Postal Service property – Brookings
• Builder Sentiment Posts Gain in May but Significant Affordability Challenges Persist – NAHB
• Home seller profits are collapsing in Florida — and surging in Michigan. Home sale returns fell in most markets in early 2026. ATTOM tracked profit margins for 128 metro areas in Q1 2026 to identify who gained and who lost – Quartz
• Homebuilder Confidence Perks Up as Congress Eyes Housing Reform Package – Realtor.com
• New home construction dropped hardest in these 5 U.S. states. Homebuilding lagged in parts of the U.S. in 2025. The Building Permits Survey measured all 50 states on housing permits to find the steepest drops – Quartz
• Los Angeles Tried to Tax Mansions. Apartment Construction Tanked. Developers say the levy is making L.A.’s housing shortage worse. The city is considering changes. – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.465 million Annual Rate in April – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• U.S. housing: Unaffordable to buy, but wealth-building to own – Dallas Fed
• White House, Senate skeptical about House’s amended housing bill. The House-amended version of a housing supply and homeownership bill bucks the directive of the Senate to pass the upper chamber’s bill. – Politico
• White House amps up pressure on House Republicans to support Senate housing bill. The White House is pushing the House to accept a Senate-passed housing affordability package. – Politico
• Johnson: House will amend stalled housing bill despite White House, Senate GOP pushback. Republicans are eager to advance a housing affordability package that’s central to their midterm messaging. – Politico
• Schumer keeps options open on housing bill as cross-chamber tensions rise. The White House and the architects of the Senate bill have pushed back against the House-amended housing affordability package. – Politico
• House GOP leaders plan housing bill vote despite Trump ultimatum. The president demanded Republicans add the SAVE America Act to the bipartisan affordability bill. – Politico
• Key Questions Remain as Housing Bill Returns to Congress This Week – Realtor.com
• A Housing Bill That Would Hurt Housing. House Republicans improve a lousy Senate bill, but not enough to make it worth saving. – Wall Street Journal
• House Passes Housing Bill, Uniting on a Measure to Bring Down Costs. The legislation, which had been stalled amid Republican divisions, passed overwhelmingly, signaling an eagerness in both parties to address affordability in an election year. – New York Times
• Newly Passed Housing Bill Throws Lifeline to Home Builders. House measure leaves out Senate provision that would have forced developers to sell rental homes within seven years – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Market Silver Linings: Why Homebuyers Are Finding Relief Despite ‘Inflation Contagion’ – Realtor.com
• Is the frozen housing market starting to thaw? – JP Morgan
• Lowering the Cost of Living for American Families. As families struggle to make ends meet amid rising costs, the Center for American Progress’ affordability agenda would save a typical family $4,133 per year across housing, health care, utility bills, and groceries. – Center for American Progress
• These Parents Are Buying Homes for Their Kids—With Strings Attached. The least affordable prices in decades have turned a milestone of independence into a family affair – Wall Street Journal
• Zombie Foreclosures Rise in Most States in Second Quarter – ATTOM

From a paper by Hippolyte Balima, Alexandru Minea, and Cezara Vinturis:

“We investigate the effect of inflation targeting on income inequality across a comprehensive panel of 152 countries spanning over four decades. Using the entropy balancing methodology to address endogeneity issues, we find that inflation targeting significantly increases income inequality. This effect, which is robust across various alternative methods and specifications, is driven by an increase (decrease) in the income share of relatively rich (poor) households. In addition, the impact of inflation targeting is not uniform but varies conditional on redistribution policies, inflation targeting features, the level of economic development, and country-specific characteristics. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion on the broad socioeconomic implications of the monetary policy, including measures to mitigate the potential side effects on income distribution.”