The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Hao-Chang Yang, Gen-Fu Feng, and Xia Chen:

“This study uses unbalanced panel data from 43 developed and emerging market economies from 1985 to 2021 to examine the different effects of geopolitical risks on cross border capital flows. The findings reveal the following: First, developed economies are largely insulated from geopolitical shocks and exhibit a statistically significant risk aversion effect only in the low tail of the capital flow distribution, primarily preventing severe capital outflows during turbulent periods. Second, emerging and developing economies experience sharp declines in FDI and significant increases in FPI when geopolitical risks rise, reflecting speculative hot money seeking risk premiums rather than fundamentals driven capital. Third, a structural break analysis reveals that the 2008 financial crisis shifted global capital logics, causing mature economies to lose their immunity to FDI withdrawals while emerging markets increasingly attract FDI through supply chain restructuring. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that higher FinTech penetration in emerging markets unexpectedly increases the negative effect of geopolitical risks on FDI by lowering withdrawal costs, whereas capital account restrictions mitigate these declines. These findings underscore how geopolitical fragmentation reshapes the composition of global finance, suppressing productive capital and fueling speculative volatility.”

On cross-country:

• Are Houses Losing Ground Across Europe? – Visual Capitalist

Working papers and conferences:

• An Olympic opportunity for social housing policy: Lessons from the Athens 2004 Olympic Village – VoxEU
• The regional and demographic profile of housing affordability: Evidence from Greek households – CEPR

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s Housing Crisis Set to Worsen on Iran War Fallout – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Outlook for Canada Existing-Home Sales Deteriorates on War-Fueled Jump in Rates. The Canadian Real Estate Association says sales in March fell for a fifth straight month, while prices recorded their 14th straight month-over-month decline – Wall Street Journal
• [India] Mumbai’s Skyline Is Soaring. So Is the Pressure on Housing. As global businesses pour into India’s financial capital, millions of low-income residents face redevelopment deals that will determine whether they can stay. – Bloomberg
• [India] India’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Mauritius] Mauritius Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Spain’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Ukraine] Ukraine’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Home Prices Post First Declines After Post-Pandemic Boom – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why tensions in the Middle East are keeping British mortgage rates high – LSE
• [United Kingdom] Property asking prices rise in April despite higher UK mortgage rates. Increase indicates resilience in housing market even as Iran war led to surge in energy costs – FT
• [United Kingdom] House prices in London’s wealthiest boroughs suffer double-digit decline. Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea property valuations sink close to 2013 levels – FT

From a paper by Sam Peltzman:

“I document a sudden, sharp and historically unprecedented decline in self-reported happiness in the US population. It occurred during 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic, and mainly persists through 2024. This happiness crash spread across nearly all typical demographics and geographies. The happiest groups pre-Covid (e.g., whites, high income, well-educated and politically/ideologically right-leaning) tend to show the largest happiness reductions. The glaring exception is marital status, which has consistently been an important marker for happiness. The already wide happiness premium for marriage has, if anything, become slightly wider. With both married and unmarried reporting large declines in happiness the country has become segregated: slightly over half-the married adults-remain happy on balance; the unmarried, nearly half, are now distinctly unhappy. I also show that across a number of aspects of personal and social capital post-Covid deterioration is the norm, including a collapse of belief in the fairness of others and of trust in the US Supreme Court.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Improving Affordability, Emerging Spring Demand May Boost House Price Growth Nationally, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report – Fidelity
• Shrinking Rent Savings in DC Ease Path to Homeownership for Aspiring Buyers – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Count of Second Homes Declines in 2024 – NAHB
• Event: State Policy Playbook: Expanding and Preserving Attainable Housing with Manufactured Homes on May 27 – Lincoln Institute
• Why Approved Housing Doesn’t Always Turn Into Finished Homes – Realtor.com
• Does Upzoning Work? This New Study Says Yes—Under the Right Conditions – Realtor.com
• Seasonality in American Housing. ‘Spring selling season’ is real—but only where there is a spring – Home Economics
• Late April Is the Best Time to List a Home For Sale. At that time they sell faster—and at a higher price – Home Economics
• Pending Home Sales Increased in March Despite Rising Mortgage Rates and Gas Prices – Realtor.com
• The Disappearance of the Moderately Priced Single-Family Home – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• In a Slow Market, Some Houses Are Still Selling Fast. Buyers are picky while prices and mortgage rates remain high, but homes in move-in condition can go quickly – Wall Street Journal
• NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness “mostly unchanged” in April Survey
• Multifamily executives have lowered their expectations for total 2026 multifamily starts – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• Handbook on Affordability – Cato Institute
• With less immigration, urban growth slowed in 2025 – Peterson Institute
• The race- and place-based factors influencing homeowners insurance in the climate change era – Brookings
• The Challenges and Opportunities Facing Detroit’s Housing Market: A Look at the Data and Local Responses – Chicago Fed
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk  
• Spring Seller Survey: Optimism Meets Reality in the 2026 Housing Market – Realtor.com
• Trump wants $1.5tn for the Pentagon – and cuts to healthcare and housing – The Guardian
• Home Sales Profits Fell Below 45 Percent for the First Time in Five Years – ATTOM
• Why First-Time Buyer Age Isn’t Rising—Even as Housing Gets Less Affordable – AEI
• Housing policy keeps running into the same problems. Federal gridlock and local bottlenecks continue to slow down construction. Meanwhile, people are scrambling for housing. – Slow Boring  

On cross-country:

• Regional differences: where home buyers must save over 20 years for upfront costs – KIEL Institute
• YIMBY goes global? Unlocking Africa’s housing markets. Africa needs to house nearly a billion new urban residents by 2050. Who’s going to build it – and how will it be paid for? – Ideas in Development

Working papers and conferences:

• How does traffic, or the fear of it, affect housing affordability? – UCLA
• Labor Supply Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Australian Mortgage Holders – IMF
• A Tale of Two Countries – The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China – NBER 
• Visual Cues and Valuation: Evidence from the Housing Market – SSRN
• From Plot to Block: Participatory Land Use for Climate-Resilient Detached Housing in Finland – Sustainable Development
• Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices – The Energy Journal
• Housing Affordability via Macroprudential Policy – Indiana University

On China:

• How long will China’s real estate crisis last? – Brookings

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Canada slashed migration and housing costs dropped. There may be lessons for Australia. While rising vacancy rates caused a dip in rents and home prices, it hasn’t solved Canada’s chronically unaffordable property market – The Guardian
• [Australia] Economic stress scares off Australian homebuyers as auction clearances fall. Houses are being pulled from auctions as vendors get cold feet amid economic uncertainty about borrowing costs – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Ford government spent billions on housing initiatives yet homebuilding has declined – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Ontario housing will remain unaffordable without real reforms – Fraser Institute
• [Spain] What does the growing dispersion of prices tell us about the housing market? – CaixaBank
• [Spain] The shortage of new homes continues to strain Spain’s housing market – CaixaBank
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report 2026 March – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] ‘We’re trapped’: despair for sellers as Iran war knocks confidence in UK housing market. Estate agents say rising mortgage costs have created a mood of fear, with Canterbury among the cities being hit – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Higher-income households benefited most from Help to Buy, thinktank finds. Analysis by IFS shows George Osborne’s mortgage schemes launched in 2013 had little effect on social mobility – The Guardian