The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Puneet Vatsa, Gabriel Pino, Dragan Miljkovic:

“Using partially identified Bayesian structural vector autoregressions, we examine how food price shocks have influenced core inflation and inflation expectations in the United States since 1990. This is important, given the conspicuousness of food prices and the substantial share of food expenditure in households’ budgets. Shocks raised one-year expectations immediately, with effects lasting nine quarters; they increased core inflation with a short delay. Long-term expectations were largely unaffected. Counterfactuals show that one-year expectations would have been lower in 2020 and 2022 without these shocks. The findings suggest food price shocks warrant a measured response, not an overreaction, from central banks.”

From a paper by Zhining Hu, Linus Nyiwul, and Niraj P. Koirala:

“This paper investigates the impact of food price inflation on gender inequality based on a panel dataset of 130 developing countries from 1990 to 2022. Applying the dynamic panel estimation techniques, including the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) and fixed-effects panel instrumental variable (panel IV) approaches, we find that food inflation significantly increases gender inequality, especially in areas such as education, labor market, health, and food security. The inflationary impact on gender inequality is strongest for staple food items like potatoes, wheat, and eggs, which are most fundamental to household consumption and care work activities typically performed by women. Since gender inequality, defined as the unequal distribution of resources, opportunities, and rights between men and women across key social and economic dimensions, is shaped by structural, cultural, and institutional factors, we further conduct heterogeneity analyses. The results reveal that poorer countries and African region are more exposed to the gendered effect of food price inflation, whereas countries with stronger institutional frameworks, such as those in OECD and Latin America, have a buffering influence. Synthetic control studies further show that the 2007–2008 food crisis had a more profound and long-lasting effect on gender inequality compared to the 2021–2022 food crisis, which was mainly driven by labor market differentials in female participation and wage earnings. These consistent results call for gender-responsive policy interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of food price inflation on gender inequality and shield women from escalating burdens induced by food inflation.”

On cross-country:

• Is a Global Housing Bubble About to Burst? It’s unlikely, according to a report by the Swiss bank UBS, but some markets are more vulnerable than others. – New York Times
• New website section puts housing in focus – Eurostat
• Renters bear brunt of housing cost struggles across Europe. Our latest consumer survey highlights rent and mortgage payers’ difficulties in making their monthly payments and reveals how they view overall housing affordability and first-time buyers’ problems – ING
• The solution to Europe’s housing affordability crisis must include building decarbonization. The EU can help tackle Europe’s housing crisis by reducing energy costs, decarbonising buildings and adhering to climate goals – Bruegel 
• Global House Price Index: 1, 5 & 10 Year Changes by Country – Global Property Guide

Working papers and conferences:

• The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Residential Investment and House Prices in Small Euro Area Economies – The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
• Decay, Abandonment, and . . . Profits? An Unlikely Combination in Real Estate Markets – Philadelphia Fed
• Do Lower Mortgage Rates Benefit First-Time Homebuyers? – SSRN
• Sea Level Rise and Effects on House Prices – Richmond Fed

On China:

• How Chinese China investment falls by most since the pandemic. Weak housing prices and slowing industrial output point to flagging economic momentum – FT
• China’s October new home prices fall at fastest pace in a year – Reuters
• Metals Climb as China Weighs New Stimulus for Property Sector – Bloomberg
• Beijing Eyes New Property Stimulus as Housing Slump Deepens – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The 5% first home buyers scheme is a miserable policy failure – and the latest chapter in Australia’s housing disgrace. The government is juicing demand to make houses more expensive for Australians while providing good public housing for … Americans – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market Resumes Gains as Lower Rates Spur Demand – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canadian home sales regain positive momentum in October – Reuters
• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market Resumes Gains as Lower Rates Spur Demand – Bloomberg 
• [Canada] Momentum Continues as Canadian Home Sales Rise in October – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] In-House Podcast: Fall Residential Mortgage Industry Report Insights – CMHC
• [France] Paris Apartment Prices Jump Most in Almost Five Years – Bloomberg
• [Italy] Italy’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide 
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Prices Regain Momentum Ahead of BOK Meeting – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Escasez de vivienda: cuando la oferta no acompaña a la demanda – BBVA
• [Spain] No faltan compradores, faltan casas: el gran bloqueo del mercado inmobiliario – BBVA
• [Spain] Spain’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Residential Real Estate October 2025 Market Overview – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] Average U.K. House Asking Prices Fall in November as Pre-Budget Blues Continue. Budget jitters and a decade-high number of homes for sale are weighing on the market – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Asking prices fall as UK housing market hit by budget speculation, Rightmove says. November drop of 1.8% is biggest for this time of year since 2012, with chancellor’s plans looming – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Multimillion-Pound Home Sales Drop Sharply Before UK Budget – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• What happens when housing supply is driven by markets not Main Street. Home prices in America won’t come down without systemic reform – FT
• Donald Trump’s 50-year mortgages are poor deal for homebuyers. Without supply increasing, even allowing Americans to pay for their homes over a century would not make housing affordable – FT
• How can we make the housing crisis even worse? Donald Trump has a plan. A proposal touting 50-year mortgages could double interest payments and worsen inequality – The Guardian
• 50-Year Mortgages: What Bill Pulte Does When He Isn’t Reviewing Mortgages of Trump’s Enemies – CEPR
• Trump Can Make Starter Homes Great Again. Ed Pinto and Tobias Peter propose a better way to satisfy housing needs than the 50-year mortgage. – Wall Street Journal
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Average US long-term mortgage rate rises again, inching up to 6.24% – AP
• Price Control Apologia – John Cochrane
• What Home Features Add the Most Value? – NAHB
• Why Portable Mortgages Won’t Work in the U.S.—and How They Could Make Housing Even Less Affordable – Realtor.com
• The Politics of Price Controls – Cato
• Location, Location, Location: How Place and Neighborhood Shape Home Values – NAHB
• U.S. Mortgage Originations Dip 2 Percent in Q3 2025 – ATTOM

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• California Housing Supply and Land Use Legislative Round-Up – Terner Center for Housing Innovation
• Build, Baby, Build: A Plan To Lower Housing Costs for All. CAP’s plan would focus federal efforts on building homes and lower housing costs. – Center for American Progress
• How to Shrink Housing Supply in Los Angeles. The city tightens its rent control law. Good luck finding an apartment. – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October – Calculated Risk
• August Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higer – NAHB
• Credit Conditions for Builders Continue to Be Tight – NAHB
• Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist – NAHB
• California October Home Sales “Highest Level Since February”; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Median Price per Square Foot Down 2.5% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• The U.S. Housing Market Is Stuck, With Sales and Listings Barely Budging – Redfin
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October. What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*? – Calculated Risk
• The Housing Strategy That Has California NIMBYs in a Corner. For years, the state has been nudging its cities to build housing to address a severe shortage. Maybe what they needed was a shove. – New York Times

On other developments:    

• Housing is at the heart of America’s economic problems. We’re propping up prices to boost old people’s wealth. But that’s shutting young people out of the capitalist system. – Noahpinion
• Trump administration issues policy change making deep cuts to homeless housing program. More than half of the 2026 funding for the program will be shifted from permanent housing to transitional housing with work and service requirements. – Politico
• The Hidden Costs of Homeownership Top $16,000 a Year. A new Zillow and Thumbtack analysis reveals how rising maintenance, insurance and tax costs are reshaping affordability nationwide. – Zillow
• From U-turns to Making America Affordable Again. Both Trump and Britain’s Labour government need a word with the ghost of Margaret Thatcher.  – Bloomberg
• Democrats eye housing affordability as next weapon against Trump. The Center for American Progress wants candidates to boost new home construction, send checks to renters and punish localities that don’t reform zoning codes. – Washington Post
• Economists Hate This Idea. It Could Be a Way Out of the Affordability Crisis. – New York Times  
• Housing Affordability: CAPs New “Build, Baby, Build” Proposal. We propose a bold plan to knock us off of the bad equilibrium in which we’ve been stuck for far too long. – Jared Berstein
• America’s Home Insurance Affordability Crunch: See What’s Happening Near You. – New York Times
• The Federal Government Shutdown Highlighted America’s Affordability Crisis – Time
• New Mexico is Struggling in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Lujan Grisham Build Enough Homes? – Realtor.com
• North Dakota Is Holding Steady in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Armstrong Keep It Growing? – Realtor.com
• It’s the Strongest Buyer’s Market in Records Dating Back Over a Decade – Redfin
• New York Is Failing in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Hochul Fix the Crisis? – Realtor.com
• Pennsylvania Is Struggling in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Shapiro Bridge the Gap? – Realtor.com
•  Montana is Failing in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Governor Gianforte Close the Gap? – Realtor.com
• A Major Metro Is the Most Affordable City in America—and the Median Home Price Is Below $250K – Realtor.com
• Using Off-Site Construction to Close the Affordable Housing Gap – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Grampa Simpson on Whining Whiners about House Affordability – Econbrowser
• How Building Affordable Housing Became Hottest Game in L.A. City streamlines approval process for developers to ease housing shortages – Wall Street Journal
• We Need a Marshall Plan to Tackle America’s Housing Crisis – AEI
• Illegal Immigrants Didn’t Break the Housing Market; Bad Policy Did – Marginal Revolution
• Home Depot earnings show what’s really going on in the housing market. Even as the data points in different directions, it nevertheless suggests the sector is undergoing a correction rather than a boom-bust cycle – Quartz
• Rejoinder to Comments on House Price Affordability – Econbrowser

From a paper by Mulu Gebreeyesus, and Getachew Ahmed Abegaz:

“This paper analyzes Ethiopia’s structural transformation from 2000 to 2022 across four
dimensions: employment, productivity, skill intensity, and tradability. While the country achieved
strong economic growth, averaging 8.9 percent annually, its structural transformation has been
uneven and incomplete. Labor has shifted out of agriculture, but mainly into low-productivity
informal services, while manufacturing’s employment share declined despite policy support.
Aggregate productivity growth, though substantial, was driven largely by within-sector gains, with
minimal contribution from labor reallocation. High-productivity sectors, including manufacturing
and modern services, remain small, capital-intensive, and poorly connected to employment and
exports. Ethiopia’s tradable sector is narrow, dominated by agricultural commodities and air
transport, with limited value-added in manufacturing and ICT. Comparative analysis shows that
while Ethiopia has outpaced many African peers in productivity, it lags in employment absorption
and export diversification, contrasting sharply with East Asia’s inclusive, manufacturing-led
growth. The findings point to a disconnect between output growth and structural inclusion.
Addressing this requires a hybrid strategy that expands labor-intensive manufacturing, upgrades
informal services, aligns skills with market demand, and diversifies tradable activities. Ethiopia’s
experience offers a critical lesson for other developing countries: sustained transformation
depends not only on growth, but on how this growth reallocates labor and resources toward more
productive sectors.”