Tuesday, March 11, 2025
From a paper by Yoosoon Chang, Soyoung Kim, and Joon Y. Park:
“This paper investigates the interactions between macroeconomic aggregates and income distribution
by developing a structural VAR model with functional variables. With this novel empirical approach, we are able to identify and analyze the effects of various shocks to the income distribution on macro aggregates, as well as the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the income distribution. Our main findings are as follows: First, contractionary monetary policy shocks reduce income inequality when focusing solely on the redistributive effects, without considering the negative impact on aggregate income levels. This improvement is achieved by reducing the number of low and high-income families while increasing the proportion of middle-income families. However, when the aggregate income shift is also taken into account, contractionary monetary policy shocks worsen income inequality. Second, shocks to the income distribution have a substantial effect on output fluctuations. For example, income distribution shocks identified to maximize future output levels have a significant and persistent positive effect on output, contributing up to 30% at long horizons and over 50% for the lowest income percentiles. However, alternative income distribution shocks identified to minimize the future Gini index do not have any significant negative effects on output. This finding, combined with the positive effect of output-maximizing income distribution shocks on equality, suggests that properly designed redistributive policies are not subject to the often-claimed trade-off between growth and equality. Moreover, variations in income distribution are primarily explained by shocks to the income distribution itself, rather than by aggregate shocks, including monetary shocks. This highlights the need for redistributive policies to substantially alter the income distribution and reduce inequality.”
From a paper by Yoosoon Chang, Soyoung Kim, and Joon Y. Park:
“This paper investigates the interactions between macroeconomic aggregates and income distribution
by developing a structural VAR model with functional variables. With this novel empirical approach, we are able to identify and analyze the effects of various shocks to the income distribution on macro aggregates, as well as the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the income distribution. Our main findings are as follows: First,
Posted by 3:13 PM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
Monday, March 10, 2025
From a paper by Puneet Vatsa:
“I use a structural vector autoregression model to analyse the links between oil prices, petrol prices, inflation, inflation perceptions, and inflation expectations in New Zealand. Findings reveal that although inflation expectations are sensitive to shocks to oil prices, petrol prices, and inflation itself, they are considerably more sensitive to inflation perception shocks. Shocks to inflation perceptions explain 54% of the forecast error variance in inflation expectations after one quarter and 37% after 18 months. The results underscore the importance of including inflation perceptions in models seeking to account for inflation expectations and their associations with energy prices.”
From a paper by Puneet Vatsa:
“I use a structural vector autoregression model to analyse the links between oil prices, petrol prices, inflation, inflation perceptions, and inflation expectations in New Zealand. Findings reveal that although inflation expectations are sensitive to shocks to oil prices, petrol prices, and inflation itself, they are considerably more sensitive to inflation perception shocks. Shocks to inflation perceptions explain 54% of the forecast error variance in inflation expectations after one quarter and 37% after 18 months.
Posted by 11:49 AM
atLabels: Energy & Climate Change, Forecasting Forum
Friday, March 7, 2025
On cross-country:
Working papers and conferences:
On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
On the US—other developments:
On China:
On Australia and New Zealand:
On other countries:
On cross-country:
Posted by 5:00 AM
atLabels: Global Housing Watch
Thursday, March 6, 2025
From a paper by Guilherme Spinato Morlin, Marco Stamegna, and Simone D’Alessandro:
“The surge in energy prices following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered the most significant inflation in advanced economies in recent decades. Using the Eurogreen model for the Italian economy, we examine the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of rising energy prices alongside two policy measures: wage indexation and a temporary housing rent cap. We compare policy scenarios with a baseline reflecting the observed price shocks. We find that: i) energy price shocks disproportionately affect lower-income individuals due to the larger share of energy goods in their consumption baskets; ii) wage indexation results in higher average real wages compared to the baseline scenario, without triggering inflation acceleration, while temporarily boosting output and employment by supporting aggregate demand; iii) a temporary housing rent cap improves distribution in workers’ favor while reducing inflation; iv) both policies have a more substantial effect for low-skilled workers; and v) best outcomes appear when these policies are jointly implemented.”
From a paper by Guilherme Spinato Morlin, Marco Stamegna, and Simone D’Alessandro:
“The surge in energy prices following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered the most significant inflation in advanced economies in recent decades. Using the Eurogreen model for the Italian economy, we examine the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of rising energy prices alongside two policy measures: wage indexation and a temporary housing rent cap. We compare policy scenarios with a baseline reflecting the observed price shocks.
Posted by 8:42 PM
atLabels: Energy & Climate Change
From a paper by Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi:
“Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10
macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)
forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics
forecasts, WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. Our analysis reveals that this overreaction is
asymmetric, with more measured response to bad news, bringing forecasts closer to the FIRE benchmark.
Moreover, forecasts align more closely with FIRE hypothesis during economic downturns or when a country is part of an IMF program. Overreaction becomes more pronounced for macroeconomic variables with low persistence and for forecasts over longer horizons, consistent with recent theoretical models. We also develop a model to explain how state-dependent nature of attentiveness may drive this asymmetric overreaction.”
From a paper by Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi:
“Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10
macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)
forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics
forecasts, WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. Our analysis reveals that this overreaction is
asymmetric, with more measured response to bad news,
Posted by 9:34 AM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum
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