The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Marina da Silva Sanches:

“This study examines the effects of fiscal consolidation on income inequality in OECD countries from 1978 to 2014, using narrative data. Employing local projections methodology and using a Gini decomposition interpretation, we estimate the impact of austerity episodes on disposable income, market income, wage, and functional inequalities. While the literature has primarily focused on the overall effect of fiscal consolidation on disposable income inequality, this paper examines how different dimensions of inequality respond to fiscal consolidation episodes. We find an increase in wage inequality in the short and medium runs, and a decrease in labor’s share of income in the short run. The results also underscore the importance of social protection in the short term. Additionally, we observe a significant increase in earnings inequality, when including the lower end of the distribution. Finally, spending-based austerity measures are, in general, more relevant than tax-based ones. Results are robust to several tests.”

From a paper by Debkumar Chakrabarti, Sankalpa Bhattacharjee, Pradeepta Sethi:

“This paper undertakes a comprehensive review of some of the less-discussed factors that harbor the potential to explain the wide variations in structural transformation, especially amongst developing economies. We begin by critically reviewing the effects of income, relative price, and international trade, which are generally considered drivers of structural change, with special emphasis on developing economies. Subsequently, we bring to the forefront three comparatively less-discussed factors—income inequality, financial market imperfections, and government policy that can explain a large part of the divergences in the transformation patterns of developing economies. Underscoring the limitation of the conventional discourse that relates cross-country differences in structure in terms of cross-country differences in manufacturing, we emphasize the need for the theoretical discourse to move beyond the industry-centric approach to focus on the recent research that views the surge of services as an additional engine of growth and the possible avenues through which it can affect structural transformation.”

From a paper by Claudia Amadei, Cesare Dosi & Francesco Jacopo Pintus:

“Declines in the energy intensity of national gross domestic product cannot be simply taken as evidence of a country’s contribution to global decarbonization, notably when they come from structural changes that relocate energy-intensive production abroad. Here we analyze the role of offshoring in shaping energy intensity trends in a panel of 15 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development between 1970 and 2021. Using both a decomposition analysis and a structural econometric model, we show that shifts in the composition of national output not mirrored by equivalent changes in domestic consumption patterns significantly and persistently reduce national energy intensity. These findings support the need to move beyond production-based climate metrics and to incorporate global supply chains for a more reliable assessment of national decarbonization pathways.”

On cross-country:

• Sistemas del impuesto predial en América Latina y el Caribe. This second edition of the book presents new data, lessons, and challenges related to property tax systems in Latin America and the Caribbean. – Lincoln Institute

Working papers and conferences:  

• The (Many) Consequences of the Housing Affordability Problem in the EU: A Machine-Learning Empirical Analysis – IMF
• The Mortgage Borrower Who Can’t Fail and the One Who Can’t Win – St Louis Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Clearance rates hit six-year low as more than half of Australian homes up for auction fail to sell. Preliminary data show 47.7% of homes sold at auction in the week ending 21 June, the lowest rate has been since April 2020 – The Guardian
• [Australia] Home builds are stalling in Sydney’s west as costs outstrip values. Developers are moving to affluent areas where they can make a profit on luxury apartments. If supply doesn’t pick up, essential workers may leave. – Financial Review
• [Australia] Why falling house prices won’t be an economic disaster – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Australia’s tax overhaul chills nation’s long love affair with property – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Ireland] The Irish Times view on house prices: some important signals. Shortage of supply, particularly in the second-hand market, will continue to make it a sellers’ market – The Irish Times
• [Portugal] Portugal’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026– Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai property sales have fallen ‘off a cliff’ since start of Middle East war. Sellers of luxury villas have wiped tens of millions of pounds off asking prices, with sales down 19% in May from the previous month – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] The rise of the remorseful homebuyer. Those who got on the property ladder in the past five years lament high mortgage bills, leasehold troubles, location doubts and a difficult sales market – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Rent collections are down in New York — and no one’s sure why. The issue has exposed thorny questions for the city’s affordable housing sector. – Politico
• Landlords Win in Closely Watched Massachusetts Rent-Control Fight. The state is at the forefront of a national debate over how to manage skyrocketing housing costs – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap – NAHB
• Inventory will Tell the Tale – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Decrease to 580,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 8% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Affordability Concerns Push New Home Sales Lower in May – NAHB
• U.S. Housing: ROAD to Housing Act – Incremental Supply Push – TD
• US new single-family home sales post second straight monthly decline – Reuters

On other developments:    

• Trump cancels signing of landmark bipartisan bill aimed at lowering housing costs – BBC
• Trump cancels signing of major housing bill. The president said he wouldn’t sign the bipartisan legislation until the SAVE America Act was passed. – Politico
• Trump Says He Won’t Sign Housing Bill Until Congress Passes the SAVE Act. Here’s How It Can Become Law Anyway – Time
• Trump cancels housing affordability bill signing until SAVE Act is passed – Axios
• See How Owning a Home Is Getting More Expensive in Every Way. The long list of spiraling costs includes property taxes, insurance, maintenance and home improvements – Wall Street Journal
• How to Solve the Housing Crisis? Everyone Has an Idea. High interest rates and a chronic shortage of inventory have pushed the U.S. housing market to a breaking point. In this podcast series, we examine the strategies emerging to solve the country’s housing shortfall. – Wall Street Journal
• Grading the States: Affordability & Homebuilding Report Cards—2026 Update – Realtor.com
• Senate passes housing bill to boost affordability, restrain investors. The bipartisan measure, the first major housing legislation since the financial crisis, would bar institutional investors from buying more than 350 single-family homes. – Washington Post
• Harvard Study Reveals the Real Reason the Housing Crisis Isn’t Getting Better – Realtor.com
• US consumers favor homebuying over renting for first time since 2023, BofA study shows – Reuters
• A Solution to A.I.’s Growing Power Demand: Homes. Tesla, Sunrun and Renew Home plan to tap solar panels, batteries, thermostats and other devices installed in millions of homes to meet the energy demands of artificial intelligence. – New York Times
• Buying a home has gotten harder for young adults in most U.S. metro areas – Pew Research Center
• Tornado Alley Is Shifting East. These Housing Markets Are Unprepared and Face the Biggest Risks. – Realtor.com
• The Cost of Mamdani’s Rent Freeze: Experts Warn Mayor’s High-Stakes Vote Could Trigger a NYC Housing Crisis – Realtor.com 
• Declining Immigration Undermines Urban and Rural Population Growth – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies