The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Gail Cohen, Joao Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani, and Pietro Pizzuto:

“This paper provides cross-country evidence on the relationship between growth in CO₂ emissions and real GDP growth from 1960 to 2018. The focus is on distinguishing longer-run trends in this relationship from short-run cyclical fluctuations, and on documenting changes in these relationships over time. Using two filtering techniques for separating trend and cycle, we find that long-run trends show evidence of decoupling in richer nations—particularly in European countries—but not yet in developing economies, and that there is stronger evidence of decoupling over the 1990 to 2018 sub-period than over the earlier 1960 to 1989 sub-period. There is also a strong cyclical relationship between emissions and real GDP growth in both advanced and developing economies, and the strength of this relationship has not weakened much over time. The cyclical relationship is largely symmetric: emissions fall about as much during recessions as they rise during booms. The transition to a low-carbon economy will thus require continued progress not only in bringing down trend emissions, particularly in developing economies, but also in taming the increase in emissions that occurs during the boom phase of the business cycle.”

From a paper by Adnan Mazarei and Prakash Loungani:

“Coverage. This paper assesses the IMF’s engagement with countries in the Middle East and
Central Asian Department (MCD) from February 2020 to April 2021, drawing on the experience of
Kyrgyz Republic, Morocco, Tunisia, and Uzbekistan. The paper also briefly describes MCD’s policy
advice over the course of the pandemic and the department’s strategy for helping the region.

Appropriate pivot in surveillance. While staff’s initial worries about the region were centered
around the sharp spike in global risk aversion—portfolio flows to the region declined by nearly
$2 billion in February–March—they quickly pivoted to healthcare and humanitarian
considerations. The April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook (REO) emphasized the immediate
priority of containing the spread of the virus and advocated fiscal easing to accommodate
necessary spending.

Rapid and effective financing. By June 2020, 15 countries in the region had received
emergency or upper credit tranche (UCT) financing from the Fund, and the Fund’s financing
exposure to the region increased by more than 65 percent in 2020. Our case studies of
Kyrgyz Republic, Tunisia, and Uzbekistan paint a positive picture overall of the value to countries
of the rapid provision of Fund emergency financing (EF). The first two received the maximum
permitted under Fund access limits despite some concerns about policies.”

Continue reading here.

From the World Bank:

“The report outlines an agenda to strengthen information and communication technology(ICT) services in Rwanda, where network coverage has improved but broadband uptake remains low. Rwanda needs to boost digital service use among consumers and the private sector by increasing access to affordable smart devices, expanding digital skills initiatives, and improving broadband quality and affordability through network upgrades, densification, and stricter competition enforcement. Key regulatory measures include a reference interconnection over (RIO), better spectrum management for next-gen technologies like 5G, and infrastructure sharing to lower service costs. While recent laws on personal data protection and cybersecurity have created a solid regulatory foundation, their implementation is still in progress. To achieve global standards, Rwanda must enhance regulations related to nonpersonal data portability and net neutrality, as current rules restrict cross-border data flows vitalfor digital market integration and e-commerce. This effort should be supported by regional andglobal collaboration on regulatory harmonization. Further public investment is needed to develop foundational digital public infrastructure, such as identifcation, trusted data sharing, and digital payments systems, to scale digital services safely and affordably. Additionally, improvements in the enabling framework and skills development are crucial for wider adoption of technologies like artificial intelligence (AI).”

On cross-country:

• How Property Taxes Can Help Low-Income Countries to Develop. Satellites, drones, and the right policies can help countries increase revenue by up to 10 times at the local level – IMF

Working papers and conferences:

• Home Purchase Appraisals in Minority Neighborhoods – FHFA
• Expecting Climate Change: A Nationwide Field Experiment in the Housing Market – NBER
• Quantitative Urban Economics – NBER
• Spatial Economics – NBER
• The Rise in Mortgage Fees: Evidence from HMDA Data – Philadelphia Fed
• Disentangling the Drivers of Exuberant House Prices – SSRN
• Institutional Investors In The Market For Single-Family Housing: Where Did They Come From, Where Did They Go? – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• New England has a housing shortage. Could ‘ADUs’ help? Boston Fed event explores ‘accessory dwelling units’ as part of housing solution – Boston Fed
• If the Fed Is Cutting Rates, Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising? The latest rise, to 6.79% for a 30-year mortgage, reflects bond market concern about President-elect Trump’s agenda. It extends an uptick in mortgage rates despite expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. – New York Times
• If the Fed Is Cutting Rates, Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Falling? Consumer borrowing costs haven’t tracked the Fed since it cut rates by half a percentage point in September – Wall Street Journal
• Consumers Feeling Better About Housing Market Despite High Home Prices. HPSI Up Significantly from All-Time Low Recorded Two Years Ago – Fannie Mae
• Here’s Where Minimum-Wage Workers Can Actually Afford Rent. A study found that people who earn low wages were rent-burdened in all of the country’s 50 largest real estate markets. – New York Times
• Trump’s a Developer, But Don’t Expect Him to Solve the Housing Crisis. The incoming president’s messaging on housing has been muddled by his support for tariffs and deportations, which would make it costlier to build. – Bloomberg
• U.S. Residential Building Permits by Market Size: 2023 – New Geography
• Mortgage Rates Fell, Then Rose. What Comes Next? Many would-be home buyers are still hoping for mortgage rates to come down as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. How much they will fall is unclear. – New York Times
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. First Year-over-year Sales Gain Since August 2021 – Calculated Risk
• Housing Costs Continue to Drive Inflation – NAHB
• NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low – Calculated Risk 
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024 – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Moving to the Country: Unpacking the Persistent Increase in Rural Housing Demand Since the Pandemic – Fannie Mae
• Weekly Housing Market Update: Election Puts Housing Supply and Affordability on the Radar – Realtor.com
• Americans Staged a Property Tax Revolt on Election Day. Florida, Georgia among the states that voted for certain limits on property taxes, while North Dakota rejected complete ban – Wall Street Journal
• What Makes Omaha Different From Other Million-Dollar Housing Markets. Home to billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the Nebraska city remains relatively affordable compared with other luxury real-estate markets – Wall Street Journal
• How Zoning Regulations Affect Affordable Housing – NAHB
• Housing has become less affordable across all US metros. – Oxford Economics
• Washington has a housing crisis. The Feds need a creative solution. The key is underused pre-World War II office space, which is well suited for conversion to apartments. – Washington Post
• Why ‘Affordable Housing’ in New York City Can Still Cost $3,500 a Month. Soaring rents and few options have made it hard for average people to live in the city. Even “affordable” units often cost too much. – New York Times  
• In Greater Minnesota, apartment owners’ operating costs rise as small cities “scream for more housing”. Rental housing owners, managers, and developers describe both new and long-standing challenges in Minnesota’s smaller markets – Minneapolis Fed
• Consumers’ Perspectives on Housing Density and Zoning – Fannie Mae  
• The Election’s Sleeper Issue. The impact of costly—and scarce—housing on election results may be underappreciated. – Barron’s
• How higher property taxes increase home affordability. Economists find raising property taxes can boost homeownership for young families – Minneapolis Fed
• Most Consumers Support Building New Housing but Disagree on the Details in Their Own Neighborhoods – Fannie Mae
• Building Material Prices Increase While Other Input Prices Fall – NAHB
• New York Doesn’t Have Enough Housing. Why Is It So Expensive to Build? The scarcity of apartments makes it easy for landlords to raise rents, but building new developments comes with high costs and regulatory hurdles. – New York Times      

On China:

• Is Trump election good or bad for Chinese property investors in the US? It’s a mixed bag. Trump tax cuts, tariffs will keep interest rates high, but current owners will benefit from his presidency – South China Morning Post
• Has China’s property market reached the bottom? – Goldman Sachs
• China Cuts Taxes for Home Purchases in Fiscal Policy Support. Home purchase deed tax is reduced to as low as 1% for buyers. Move signals more fiscal support for the sluggish economy – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The type of property where prices are falling most right now – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] ‘It’s never going to happen’: three in five Australian renters expect to never own a home as steep rents hit. Nation of homeowners is about ‘to flip’ to having more people renting, which presents policy challenges, researchers say – The Guardian
• [Australia] Voters furious at housing impasse, O’Neil warns Greens – Financial Review
• [Australia] Want to slash social housing waitlists? We should allow tenants to swap homes – The Conversation
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices rise in October as rate cuts boost confidence – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices to bottom out in short term after rate cut, analysts say. Unexpected prime-rate cut by local lenders seen bringing more buyers into market, shoring up prices – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Why didn’t Hong Kong set stricter rules to wipe out its notorious shoebox flats? Setting a larger minimum size for subdivided flats would have meant delays in supplying homes to those affected, minister says – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Residential Property In 2025: Volume Will Rise, Not Price – S&P Global
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong residential property prices to rebound next year, though unsold inventory looms. ‘We expect Hong Kong home prices to be up 5 per cent in 2025,’ says Praveen Choudhary of Morgan Stanley – South China Morning Post 
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Tycoons Are Selling Trophy Homes at Fire Sale Prices. China’s economic downturn has not been kind to the ultrarich who made their wealth on its rise. In their haste to cough up cash, Hong Kong’s luxury property market has had some fire sales. – New York Times
• [Ireland] Building small terraced homes could reduce construction costs, boost supply and lower prices for first-time buyers. Small terraced houses would be more affordable for one- and two-person households, but builders prefer to construct apartments or semi-detached homes because of higher profit margins – The Irish Times
• [Israel] Jerusalem planners laud anticipated skyscrapers, but wary locals cite towering concerns. While the municipality claims that constructing 500 tall buildings will give the Holy City a vertical facelift, residents say it will mar the landscape and only benefit developers – The Times of Israel
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi Residential Real Estate: The Market Is Booming – S&P Global
• [United Kingdom] Does the Bank of England’s interest rate cut mean lower mortgages? What the decision means for homeowners – and the implications for savings, loans and credit cards – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices hit record high in October, says Halifax. Typical property now costs £293,999, surpassing previous peak set in June 2022 – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK home sales still below pre-pandemic levels. Pricier mortgages in recent years have a knock-on effect on property transactions – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK renters hit by housing supply squeeze. Number of new properties coming to market is weakest since 2021, driving rent rises, Rics survey finds – FT

From UNDP:

“From September 9th to 13th, 2024, Namibia proudly hosted the 3rd Annual African Union Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (AU MSME) Forum in Windhoek, under the theme, “Fostering Financial Empowerment and Educational Innovation for African Startups and MSMEs.” This landmark event brought together over 300 entrepreneurs, policymakers, investors, and thought leaders from 54 African countries and marked a significant step forward in advancing Africa’s MSME sector.

The forum served as a vital platform for addressing key challenges facing MSMEs, including access to finance, market opportunities, and capacity-building. With a focus on fostering sustainable inclusive growth and development, participants explored solutions to the pressing financial and structural barriers that limit the growth of MSMEs.

The 20th Ordinary Session of the African Union Conference of Ministers of Industry (CAMI 20) urged member states to create a supportive environment for MSMEs. In response, the AU MSME Development Strategy & Action Plan was launched, aiming to foster sustainable economies, encourage entrepreneurship, industrial development, and enhance regional trade. The AU MSME Forum, which began in Cairo in 2022 and followed in Addis Ababa in 2023, serves as a key platform for knowledge-sharing and collaboration across Africa.”

Continue reading here.