Friday, May 30, 2025
From a paper by Sini Sabu:
“This study examines the asymmetric relationship between real exchange rate fluctuations and household inflation expectations in India via ARDL and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) models. The results indicate that inflation expectations respond significantly to exchange rate appreciation but are less sensitive to depreciation. A threshold analysis confirms that only substantial exchange rate deviations affect expectations, whereas minor fluctuations have negligible effects. Empirical evidence suggests that an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate by 10 units reduces inflation expectations by approximately 3.2 percentage points, whereas a similar depreciation results in only a 1.4 percentage point increase. These findings challenge the assumption of symmetric exchange rate pass-through and emphasize the importance of exchange rate stability in monetary policy formulation. Given the implications for inflation targeting, policymakers should prioritize exchange rate interventions that minimize excessive appreciation, while also strengthening communication strategies to manage inflation expectations more effectively.”
From a paper by Sini Sabu:
“This study examines the asymmetric relationship between real exchange rate fluctuations and household inflation expectations in India via ARDL and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) models. The results indicate that inflation expectations respond significantly to exchange rate appreciation but are less sensitive to depreciation. A threshold analysis confirms that only substantial exchange rate deviations affect expectations, whereas minor fluctuations have negligible effects. Empirical evidence suggests that an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate by 10 units reduces inflation expectations by approximately 3.2 percentage points,
Posted by 8:33 AM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum
From a paper by Xianbo Zhou, Songliang Han, Yingming Wu, and Guangsu Zhou:
“This paper uses micro survey data from China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) 2011 to 2019 and the staggered DID approach to study the impact of the loose “universal two-child” policy on Chinese household consumption inequality. The results show that the implementation of the policy can significantly reduce the relative consumption deprivation of policy-responsive families, and the effect is more significant for relatively vulnerable households, for example, those located in rural areas or western regions, with “outside-the-system” jobs or low- to middle-income levels. Mechanistic analysis revealed that the differentiated effects of the policy on the consumption of households with different income strata contributed to the reduction in consumption inequality. Furthermore, the policy alleviates consumption inequality through its negative effect on luxury consumption and positive effects on subsistence and development consumption. The mitigating effect of the two-child policy on consumption inequality is robust according to various robustness tests. This study has implications and policy significance for the implementation of China’s current three-child policy and the adjustment of future fertility policies, as well as narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor and achieving the goals of common prosperity and equalization.”
From a paper by Xianbo Zhou, Songliang Han, Yingming Wu, and Guangsu Zhou:
“This paper uses micro survey data from China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) 2011 to 2019 and the staggered DID approach to study the impact of the loose “universal two-child” policy on Chinese household consumption inequality. The results show that the implementation of the policy can significantly reduce the relative consumption deprivation of policy-responsive families, and the effect is more significant for relatively vulnerable households,
Posted by 8:32 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
From a paper by Suale Karimu, and Attahir B. Abubakar:
“Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced significant structural change and economic growth in recent decades; however, inequality levels remain high, raising concerns that the growth is not inclusive enough to reduce inequality levels. This study explores the effect of economic growth and structural change on income inequality using a panel dataset of 40 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2001–2015. The study employs the iterated Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator for analysis. The findings suggest that although increased income levels in the region fuel inequality, the transition of the economies towards the services sector could reduce income inequality. However, the overall contribution of structural change to reducing inequality levels has been minimal suggesting that the growth experiences of the region, especially over the last two decades, may not have been inclusive; hence, the need for enhanced redistributive policies to deepen inclusivity of the growth process.”
From a paper by Suale Karimu, and Attahir B. Abubakar:
“Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced significant structural change and economic growth in recent decades; however, inequality levels remain high, raising concerns that the growth is not inclusive enough to reduce inequality levels. This study explores the effect of economic growth and structural change on income inequality using a panel dataset of 40 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2001–2015. The study employs the iterated Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator for analysis.
Posted by 8:30 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
On prices, rent, and mortgage:
On sales, permits, starts, and supply:
On other developments:
On prices, rent, and mortgage:
Posted by 5:00 AM
atLabels: Global Housing Watch
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
From a paper by Jassim Aladwani:
“Using standard GARCH-type, Markov Switching GARCH-type, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this study employs quarterly dataset from 1995 to 2023 to investigate the volatility shifts of macroeconomic variables, incorporating crude oil prices in Spain. The empirical results of the study clearly confirm that MSGARCH-type models extend beyond the capabilities of standard GARCH-type models, providing enhanced flexibility in modeling the volatility process. The estimated MSGARCH-type models effectively identify breakpoints in all macroeconomic variables volatilities, specifically during significant events such as the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, the European debt crisis in 2011, and the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. In addition, our results indicate that high crude oil price shocks during the global events are important drivers of uncertainty. There is strong evidence that the effects of crude oil price shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty are highly dependent on the prevailing regime. These impacts vary based on investor sentiment and the level of perceived volatility within financial markets. The responses of economic uncertainty to crude oil shocks appear to experience a dramatic change in the major global events, such as the post-global financial crisis (GFC), COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukrainian war.”
From a paper by Jassim Aladwani:
“Using standard GARCH-type, Markov Switching GARCH-type, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this study employs quarterly dataset from 1995 to 2023 to investigate the volatility shifts of macroeconomic variables, incorporating crude oil prices in Spain. The empirical results of the study clearly confirm that MSGARCH-type models extend beyond the capabilities of standard GARCH-type models, providing enhanced flexibility in modeling the volatility process. The estimated MSGARCH-type models effectively identify breakpoints in all macroeconomic variables volatilities,
Posted by 10:38 AM
atLabels: Energy & Climate Change
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