The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme:

“The question of the implication of the macroeconomic policy environment for welfare may be an empirical one, and the answer may well differ amongst economies. In this paper, we evaluate the role of monetary policy toward inclusive growth. The evidence from a large sample of countries shows that in both the short and long terms, low inflation and stable economic growth are associated with lower income inequality, improved well-being of the poor and greater inclusion. Both short-term and long-run effects are statistically significant and show that monetary policy that aims at low inflation and stable economic growth is most likely to improve permanently growth inclusiveness and the conditions of the poor. However, in advanced economies where inflation rates are considerably lower, disinflation hurts the poor and equity, ignites greater unemployment cost, and worsens growth inclusiveness. In any case, price and output stability is necessary for greater growth inclusiveness. Thus, the twin objectives of macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth offer no trade-offs.”

On cross-country:

• House prices in Europe reactivate with the shift in monetary policy – CaixaBank

Working papers and conferences:

• Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments – NBER
• Growth and Fluctuations Economies with Land Speculation – NBER
• Sewers and Urbanization in the Developing World – NBER
• Forecasting House Price Growth Using Months Supply of Housing – Richmond Fed

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index—February 2025 – AEI
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Home-Price Accelerated in January, but Mortgage Rates Still Weighed. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 4.1% on year in January, higher than the 4.0% rise in December – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Climb 4.1% in January – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s market: Zillow’s analysis for over 250 housing markets. Here are the top metro areas where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s most recent analysis. – Fast Company
• New Construction Is Changing American Cities. The median year that homes were built has risen, largely due to population growth and the need to house a migrating population. – New York Times
• Volume of Residential Construction Loans Falls in Q4 2024 – NAHB
• ‘Challenging’ Housing Market Is Squeezing Homebuilder Profit Margins, Top Construction Company Warns – Realtor.com
• Why the Supply of Homes for Sale is Increasing – Arizona Real Estate Notebook
• Spec Homes Sitting on the Market Pose Potential Economic Drag. Builders might pull back on new housing construction as they try to clear their backlog. – Bloomberg
• Blue states don’t build. Red states do. A timely repost, with some updates. – Noahpinion
• Slight Decline in Rates Helps New Home Sales to Edge Higher in February – NAHB
• New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February. Average New Home Price is Down 10% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk 
• New-Home Sales Picked Up in February, Driven by Affordable Inventory – Realtor.com
• This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market. The Northeast has tons of demand and low supply, but parts of the Sunbelt are seeing a flood of houses for sale – Wall Street Journal
• Lennar: “Didn’t see typical seasonal pickup after February” – Calculated Risk
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales – Calculated Risk
• Trump’s Housing Chief Embarks on Shake-Up at Mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Administration has discussed privatizing the two firms – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• Fifty Shades of Growth. Birth and death rates are quietly determining tomorrow’s real estate hotspots – Home Economics
• Homeownership Has Always Impacted American Democracy – Time
• Home-Ownership Remains Financial Stretch Around U.S. as Prices Remain Near Record High – ATTOM
• Understanding office-to-residential conversion – Brookings
• America’s housing affordability crisis and the decline of housing supply – Brookings
• Trump Moves Forward With Plans To Use Federal Land To Build Affordable Housing – Realtor.com
• Housing Roadblocks: Paving a New Way to Address Affordability – AEI
• Lower Mortgage Rates, Better Affordability – NAHB
• Gen Z and Millennial Homeownership Rates Flatlined in 2024 As Housing Costs Soared – Realtor.com
• Why Gen Z buyers are looking beyond Seattle – Axios
• Homesteading 2.0: A Proposal to Make Housing Affordable Again – AEI
• They Bought and Sold Homes During Covid. Was It Worth It? For many, the pandemic gave them the push they needed to make a major life change – Wall Street Journal
• Lawsuit Challenges Use of Eminent Domain as NIMBY Tool to Block Housing Project. A Rhode Island town seeks to use eminent domain to block construction of a large-scale affordable housing project. – Reason
• Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook – Calculated Risk
• Dos and Don’ts – March Edition. Good and bad moves on zoning, ADUs, public space, taxes and more – The New Urban Order
• Why the economy isn’t working, revisited – Erdman Housing Tracker
• How the pandemic transformed Nashville’s housing market – Axios
• Five Ways Residential Mobility Has Changed in the Pandemic Era – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Americans Are Losing Faith in Trump’s Ability To Fix the Housing Market—With 70% Fearing an Impending Crash – Realtor.com

On China:

• Chinese developer Sunac unveils unprecedented 2nd restructuring. Move by mainland property giant highlights continuing debt problems in depressed sector – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Trade war not good for interest rates or home buyers: Cotality – Financial Review
• [Australia] Where coastal property prices are hot – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Germany] GREIX annual analysis 2024: Slight price decline in all housing segments – KIEL
• [Germany] German home prices halt decline in fourth quarter but outlook uncertain – Reuters
• [Germany] Germany’s latest fiscal reform poses obstacles for the housing market’s recovery. By the end of 2024, German house prices were around 11% below their peak in the second quarter of 2022. Looking ahead, the recent increase in bond yields is expected to slow the housing market’s recovery – ING
• [Kuwait] Kuwait Is Set to Allow Banks to Offer Mortgages for the First Time – Bloomberg
• [India] India Home Sales Drop 23% as High Prices, Buyer Caution Weigh – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Property inflation hits eight-year high as typical asking price for home hits €346,000. Median asking price in Dublin is now €460,726. Chronically short supply is hampering buyers and pushing up prices – Irish Independent
• [Nigeria] Nigeria Set to Create $654 Million Fund to Provide Home Loans – Bloomberg
• [Spain] The real estate boom spreads across Spain – CaixaBank
• [Spain] The expansive cycle takes hold. The shortage of housing supply in a context of strong demand will remain one of the main challenges of Spain’s real estate market in 2025, although it is not among the most overvalued markets in the European Union. – CaixaBank 
• [United Kingdom] Cambridge yimbies. The home of Harvard and MIT embraces yimby-ism – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] House affordability in England and Wales returns to pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth has outstripped property price rises, official figures show – FT
• [United Kingdom] London House Prices Become Cheaper But Are Still Unaffordable – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Reeves to put £2bn into affordable housing to ‘sweeten the pill’ of cuts. Chancellor will announce plans to fund 18,000 social homes before fraught spring statement on Wednesday – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump by most in two years, ONS says – Reuters

From a paper by Cong Minh Huynh, and Khanh Nam Pham:

“In a comprehensive study across 32 Asian countries and territories spanning 2002–2018, we unveil the surprising impact of uncertainty on income inequality. Contrary to conventional expectations, our analysis reveals a fascinating trend: heightened uncertainty appears to wield a dual impact on income distribution. While it diminishes the income shares of both the richest and the poorest segments of society, the reduction is far more pronounced among the wealthiest quintile. Surprisingly, this outcome leads to a lessening of income inequality. The results are robust with fixed effects, feasible generalized least squares, and especially panel vector autoregression (PVAR) to tackle endogeneity concerns. The findings imply that in a more stable environment, the rich enjoy a higher growth of income than the poor, while in higher uncertainty, the income of the rich drops more dramatically than that of the poor. Thus, policymakers should take this into consideration for appropriately making income redistribution policies during normal and crisis periods, especially considering the varying impact of uncertainty on different segments of society.”

From a paper by Christophe Martial Mbassi, Cyrille Michel Samba, Thérèse Elomo Zogo:

“This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about “ecological macroeconomics”. Specifically, we explore the effects of monetary policy, namely inflation targeting (IT), on energy consumption in a global sample of 145 countries between 1980 and 2017. We use various standard panel data approaches such as fixed effects (within) estimator, and two-step system GMM among others, followed by propensity score matching to address the self-selection bias inherent in IT adoption. Our results show that IT significantly increases energy consumption, and this effect goes through the macroeconomic volatility and FDI channels. Moreover, improvements in the institutional framework mitigate the effect of IT. The results also highlight the importance of central bank experience given that, over time, IT significantly reduces energy consumption. Finally, we find that the effect of IT on renewable energy consumption is not robust. Overall, our results point out the need to have environmental considerations in designing macroeconomic policies to foster the ecological transition.”

On cross-country:

• Housing affordability lowest in Greek, Danish, and German cities – Oxford Economics
• Why rents are out of control. Rich-world tenants are angry, and have reason to be – The Economist
• If you can’t find a place to rent, blame the government. Foolish crusades against landlords have made housing shortages worse – The Economist
• Los precios de la vivienda en Europa se reactivan por el giro en la política monetaria – CaixaBank

Working papers and conferences:

• Institutional ownership of single-family housing – Marginal Revolution
• New Data and Insights in Regional and Urban Economics – NBER
• Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities – NBER 
• Mortgage-Backed Securities – Philadelphia Fed
• Does Income Inequality Affect Housing Affordability? Evidence From OECD Countries – HAL
• The Impact of Opportunity Zones on Housing Supply – Economic Innovation Group 
• From Housing Gains to Pension Losses: New Methods to Reveal Wealth Inequality Dynamics in Chile – SSRN
• Jue Insight: When the Neighbors are Watching: Immigrant Integration Policy and Housing Wealth – SSRN
• Demographics and Housing Demand: Evidence from China – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The Case-Shiller Home Price Index Hits Another New Record High, Thank the Fed – Mish Talk
• Housing market map: Zillow once again downgrades its 2025 home price forecast. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will rise just 0.8% between February 2025 and February 2026. – Fast Company
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, Land at 6.65% – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Rates Rise Today as Trump’s Tariff Threats Drive Economic Uncertainty – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
• Trump team shakes up mortgage giants as it weighs their futures. This week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency took the unexpected step of overhauling the boards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. – Washington Post
• A Secret Mortgage Blacklist Is Leaving Homeowners Stuck With Unsellable Condos. Fewer homes can get Fannie Mae-backed mortgages, a response to Surfside condo collapse and insurance crunch – Wall Street Journal
• How Trump is providing an unexpected boost to the housing market. Any revival of the market would be a welcome development for Trump as consumer confidence falters in the early days of his administration. – Politico
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February – Calculated Risk
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February. Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business – Calculated Risk
• Regional differences in building permits – FRED
• Softwood Lumber Prices Continue to Lead Price Growth for Building Materials – NAHB
• Single-Family Housing Starts Hit 12-Month High in February – NAHB
• Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February. Length of Time from Start to Completion Declined in 2024 – Calculated Risk
• California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY. Median House Prices Increased 3.8% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Increased in February – NAHB
• US homebuilding, manufacturing surge; tariffs cast pall over recovery – Reuters
• Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty – NAHB
• Remodeling Soars to New Heights, but Industry Faces Numerous Challenges – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Is the UK Housing Plan a Model for the US? What combining YIMBYism and government-led housing looks like – The New Urban Order
• Chinese towers and American blocks. China builds towers in a park, while America, and nearly everyone else, builds squat mid-rise blocks. The difference comes down to regulation, not culture. – Works in Progress
• Real Estate Asset Value Falls Again – NAHB
• Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Good News for Homebuyers—It’s a Friendlier Market as Sellers Get Ready for Spring – Realtor.com
• The Challenge of Selling High-End Homes in America’s Disaster Zones. Marketing real-estate in areas ravaged by hurricanes, fires, floods and landslides can be tricky—especially when it comes to striking a balance between promotion and reality – Wall Street Journal
• Houston’s housing success: A model for cities. Evidence from Houston suggests that a decentralized regulatory climate has fostered a housing market capable of effectively adjusting to price pressure. – Reason Foundation

On the US—other developments:    

• Book review: “Abundance”. In which Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson offer a whole new way of thinking about political economy. – Noahpinion
• Ezra Klein on the Abundance Agenda (Ep. 236). Politics Got Weird—Can Abundance Make It Normal Again? – Conversation with Tyler
• Global Influx, Local Exodus: The New Geography of American Growth. What the latest Census Bureau population data tells us about people and cities – Home Economics
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q4. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q4 – Calculated Risk
• Federal Agency Pauses Program for Energy-Efficient Upgrades in Affordable Housing. The Department of Housing and Urban Development said it was reviewing all aspects of the Biden-era program to ensure it was carried out consistent with the agency’s core mission. – New York Times
• Metro Monitor 2025: Growth and affordability trends in US metro areas over the past decade – Brookings
• Housing market squeeze: Income needed to buy typical U.S. home up 79% in 5 years. The problem is that incomes haven’t kept up with housing costs. – Fast Company
• Federal Land Can Be Home Sweet Home. Our departments will work together to solve the housing crisis. – Wall Street Journal
• Land-Use Regulations Make Housing Less Affordable – Cato
• Solving the Housing Crisis: A Symposium – The University of Texas at Austin
• Home Sellers and Buyers Accuse Realtors of Blocking Lower Fees. A year after a landmark settlement called for a disruption in how real estate agents are paid, people say they still feel forced to pay them excessive commissions. – New York Times
• Rising Fears of a Recession and Stagflation: Should Homeowners Be Concerned? – Realtor.com
• Black Homeownership Sees Largest Annual Surge but Lags Behind Other Groups – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Brace for Job Cuts. William Pulte, the new director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is consolidating control over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and questioning employees’ productivity. – New York Times

On China:

• China’s Shenzhen Further Eases Loan Policy to Spur Housing Sales – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The Sydney suburbs where house values are falling fastest right now – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] We DON’T KNOW if housing construction productivity is RISING or FALLING (Part I). What we got from Australia’s Productivity Commission recently were silly methods without sound economic logic – Fresh Economic Thinking
• [New Zealand] Interest rate cuts don’t mean house prices are taking off, sellers told – RNZ
• [New Zealand] NZ house prices rise in February on improved buyer interest, REINZ says – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian home sales post biggest decline in nearly three years – Reuters
• [Germany] Berlin debt splurge turns screws on flagging German property – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong anti-corruption agency arrests 22 people over HK$2 million mortgage fee fraud. Eighteen bank staff among those accused of taking bribes from intermediary to defraud institution of referral fees in mortgage loan applications – South China Morning Post
• [Hungary] No stability risk from investor-fuelled Hungarian house price surge, central bank says – Reuters
• [Ireland] Tánaiste says projections on housing completions ‘not exact science’ as Central Bank cuts forecast for housing supply. Officials expect Government to miss key targets on new homes for the next three years – Irish Independent
• [Spain] Spain’s top court backs Barcelona’s plan to ban holiday apartments – Reuters
• [Spain] Se afianza la tendencia alcista en el mercado inmobiliario español – CaixaBank
• [Spain] El ciclo expansivo del mercado inmobiliario se extiende por la geografía Española – CaixaBank
• [United Kingdom] London’s Luxury Housing Shortage Pushes Posh Buyers Into Fixer Uppers. A lack of supply at the top of the market means wealthy buyers are willing to commit to costly construction projects for the first time in years. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Britain Needs a Housing Boom. Here’s How. New policies to simplify and speed planning permissions will help. But they don’t go far enough. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] U.K. House Prices Rise in March as Buyers Benefit From Ample Choice. New sellers were 8% higher than last year, Rightmove said – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Buyers’ property market looms in UK amid record numbers of homes for sale. Decade-high level despite rush to beat stamp duty deadline will push sellers to restrict price rises, says Rightmove – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London Homebuyers in Last Ditch Effort to Dodge Stamp Duty Hike. Many first-time buyers are rushing to get on the property ladder before the new levy comes into effect on April 1. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why is top-tier renting on the rise in London? Despite paying upwards of £5,000 per week, many of the capital’s most affluent residents are choosing not to buy, but to rent – FT