The Unassuming Economist

From Caixin Global:

“Recent weeks have seen a flurry of multilateral diplomacy across South America. The 31st APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima, Peru, and the 19th G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, convened global leaders, including President Xi Jinping. The theme of the APEC meeting was Empowering, Inclusive, Growth, while the G20’s Rio Declaration emphasized fostering “strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth,” with the term “inclusive” appearing at least 10 times. This shared emphasis reflects a pressing global reality.”

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From a paper by Azzeddine Cheddad and Mohammed Mekidiche:

“This article analyzes the feasibility of inflation targeting (IT) in Algeria using data from Q1 2000 to Q4 2021. IT is widely used, although its efficacy in emerging areas, notably MENA, is disputed. Algerian monetary policy dynamics and the central bank’s response to inflation and production changes are examined using Taylor Rule and GMM. The Bank of Algeria appears to value interest rate smoothing above short-term economic instability. The central bank’s aggressive response to inflation goal deviations supports its price stability promise in an IT environment. The research shows a lower focus on production stability, possibly due to the oil-dependent economy and labor market rigidities. The study finds that Algeria’s monetary policy has IT aspects, but its efficacy depends on its economic setting and institutional architecture. To further comprehend Algeria’s macroeconomic stabilization efforts, future study should examine global economic circumstances, commodity price volatility, and monetary and fiscal policy. This study adds to the discussion on IT’s usefulness in emerging economies by highlighting the necessity to address economic conditions and institutional frameworks. IT may help stabilize prices in Algeria, but executing this monetary policy framework in a unique economic setting is difficult.”

From Daily Excelsior:

“Leaders from various Indian-American communities have applauded Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his commitment to “inclusive growth” in India.

At the half-day Global Equity Alliance Summit, hosted at Washington Adventist University on Friday, the leaders said the minority communities in India has remained safe and secure under Modi’s governance.
The summit, held in association with the Indian Minorities Foundation and Chandigarh University, also saw the launch of the Association of American Indian Minorities. The initiative was launched against the backdrop of a series of attacks on Hindu temples in the US and Canada this year.

In recognition of Modi’s efforts towards inclusive development and minority welfare, the Washington Adventist University and the Association of American Indian Minorities honoured the Prime Minister with the Dr Martin Luther King Jr Global Peace Award for Minority Upliftment.
Chandigarh University Chancellor Satnam Singh Sandhu received the award on Modi’s behalf in his absence.

The association’s goal is to unite minorities in the country and work for the safety and security of Indian American minorities, according to the organisers here.”

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From a paper by Peter Lihn, Jørgensen, and Kevin J. Lansing:

“We show that the fraction of non-reoptimizing firms that index prices to the inflation target, rather than lagged inflation, provides a simple measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in a New Keynesian model with full-information rational expectations. Higher values of the anchoring measure imply less sensitivity of rational inflation forecasts to movements in actual inflation. The approximate value of the model’s anchoring measure can be inferred from observable data generated by the model itself, as given by 1 minus the autocorrelation statistic for quarterly inflation. We show that a shift in the collective indexing behavior of firms allows the model to account for numerous features of evolving U.S. inflation behavior since 1960.”

From a paper by Lei Yu, Wenxian Zhou, Yujie Lin, Xinlong Yang and Jue Wang:

“This paper explores the impact of demographic changes on the sustainability of household liabilities, which is crucial for adjusting the effects of demographic shifts and stabilizing household debt levels. Using inter-provincial panel data and econometric models, including fixed effects, systematic GMM, and mediation effect models, the study examines how demographic structure affects household debt sustainability. It finds that the natural population structure has a more significant impact than social or spatial factors. Key results include: (1) higher child and old-age dependency ratios worsen debt sustainability, with regional variations; (2) a favorable gender ratio improves debt sustainability, particularly in the eastern regions; (3) higher income ratios for home-purchase and consumption expenditures, along with GDP growth, benefit debt sustainability, while financial security income has a negative effect; (4) rising house prices mediate the relationship between demographic changes and debt sustainability. The study recommends policy improvements such as incentives for multiple births and enhanced social security.”