The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Floris Bukman:

“Military coups are a persistent feature of global politics, with nearly 90 incidents recorded worldwide between 1996 and 2023, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Such events typically disrupt economic performance, causing declines in GDP growth, high inflation rates, reduced foreign direct investment (FDI), and increased unemployment. However, the severity and duration of these economic outcomes vary significantly across countries. This thesis addresses this gap by investigating whether institutional quality, measured by government effectiveness, moderates the short- to medium-term economic impacts of coups. Using a fixed-effects panel regression model covering all UN member states from 1996 to 2023, the findings suggest that countries with stronger institutions are better able to mitigate the typically negative economic effects of coups. These countries experience faster GDP growth recoveries, particularly evident in the second year after the coup and, in some contexts, as early as the first year. For inflation, FDI, and unemployment, the moderating effect of institutional quality was not statistically significant. By emphasising the important role of institutional quality following political instability, this research provides new insights into why some countries experience less severe economic impact and recover more quickly from military coups than others, and it offers directions for future research.”

From a paper by Arief Rahman, Vely Brian Rosandi, Galuh Syahbana Indraprahasta, Abdurrakhman Prasetyadi, Andi Yoga Saputra, and Andrea Emma Pravitasari:

“While the term rural transformation was first coined in the late 1960s, it is only recently that there has been a significant increase in interest in research employing this label. This particular corpus of research has evolved into a diverse body of literature. However, there is a lack of understanding of the academic landscape of this literature. The objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive and up-to-date review of the key characteristics, research topics, and evolution of this body of literature over the past six decades. To this end, the paper employed a science mapping tool, namely CiteSpace, to retrieve data from the Scopus database, combined with an exploratory review. A total of 580 academic articles published up to 2023 were identified and analysed. As the notion of rural transformation has evolved, the extant literature has expanded beyond its initial focus on economic and demographic changes to encompass a broader range of topics, including sustainability, young population, and spatiotemporal analysis, as well as to capture diverse experiences from around the globe. This diversity indicates the need to situate rural transformation within different geographical contexts. In addition to the recent trend, potential areas of research that may shape the future direction of rural transformation literature include environmental sustainability, contemporary globalisation, technological progress, and population dynamics.”

From a paper by Supipi Hansika, Priyan Navamohan, Dinuli Gamage, Ridmi Madurawala &  Ruwan Jayathilaka:

“In the modern world, exploring economic uncertainty and the unpredictability in economic conditions is crucial to determine its impact on day-to-day society. However, existing literature has examined this relationship in a generalised manner, often without focusing on the bi-directional effects among these variables. This study explores the causal and cointegrating interrelationships among economic uncertainty and suicide rates, unemployment rates, economic growth, and trade openness across 30 high uncertainty countries utilising Granger causality test and Cointegration test. Unlike existing studies, which focus on a certain country or region, the current findings disclose bi-directional causation between the measured variables, particularly in Kenya, Finland, Portugal, Latvia, Peru, Haiti, Mexico, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic. The cointegration tests show that while uncertainty reduces economic growth and trade openness in the long run, in line with contemporary literature, uncertainty also reduces suicide rates and unemployment rates in the long term. By analysing the countries with the highest economic uncertainty, this study aims to provide country-specific policies in line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) developed by United Nations (UN) to navigate the bi-directional effects among economic uncertainty and the linked variables.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Refinancing Starts to Thaw as Rates Trend Down. It has been a frustrating wait for people who bought homes in the past few years, when mortgage rates have been high – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgages Could Shrug Off a Fed Cut—but Not This One – Barron’s
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Second Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• The U.S. housing market is ‘finally starting to listen’ to homebuyers plagued by high mortgage rates and home prices, economist says – Fortune

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Homebuilder inventory hits 2009 levels—creating deals in these housing markets. A record 121,000 completed single-family homes sat unsold in July, as affordability challenges weigh on buyers in key Sun Belt markets. – Fast Company
• Forget YIMBY. The housing shortage could disappear on its own. Demographic shifts and construction surges are likely to resolve the housing crisis without federal intervention. – Washington Post
• The 5 most competitive housing markets in America right now — and the 5 least. Some cities are still seeing bidding wars — but others are flooded with inventory – Quartz
• June Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher – NAHB
• U.S. construction spending fell in July amid a slow housing market. Construction spending was down 2.8% year-over-year in July, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau – Quartz
• The Mobile Home Comeback: New California Program Offers Cash To Repair or Replace Aging Homes – Realtor.com
• Open Construction Jobs Rise in July – NAHB
• How We Are Working to Increase the Multifamily Housing Supply – Freddie Mac
• Congress continues to advance significant housing supply incentives – JP Morgan Chase

On other developments:    

• Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks – Dallas Fed
• Dynamic Tables: Comparing Cities – Home Economics
• Trump May Declare a National Housing Emergency: What to Know – Time
• Bessent: Everything on table for housing affordability fixes – Axios
• Bessent says Trump administration will tackle high housing costs with new measures – Reuters
• Trump wants to ax an affordable housing grant, a lifeline for many rural communities – Los Angeles Times   
• Trump Considers Declaring National Housing Emergency This Fall – Realtor.com
• Yes, America Has a Housing Emergency. But Trump will make it worse – Paul Krugman
• The Trump Administration’s Fake Housing Emergency. The results of America’s overly burdensome housing regulations aren’t great. But they’re not an “emergency.” – Reason
• The Face of Homeownership in the U.S. is Getting Older—What You Need to Know – Realtor.com
• There’s a housing market shift afoot—just ask Realtors. Among real estate agents that Zoodealio and ResiClub surveyed, 81% say buyers are gaining leverage in their local housing market—that share is even higher among agents based in the Southwest (96%). – Fast Company
• NAHB HBGI:  Relative Gains for Smaller Markets, Particularly for Multifamily – NAHB
• America is escaping its office crisis. The torment caused by covid-19 and high interest rates appears to be over – The Economist
• Cruel Summer: Why the U.S. Housing Market Is Stuck – Realtor.com
• Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the Affordable Housing Crisis: A Closer Look –CEPR
• U.S. Housing Costs to Return to ‘Normal’ by 2030 With Stable Price Growth and Moderately Lower Rates – Realtor.com
• The ‘abundance movement’ needs to help distressed places, not just booming ones – Brookings 
• Strong Foundations: A Playbook for Housing and Economic Growth – AEI
• Wall Street Is Killing the Housing Market. Investment giants are buying up homes and pricing real people out of the market. But it doesn’t have to be this way. – Inequality.org
• I Did My Dissertation on Housing Displacement. Then I Experienced It Myself. If someone like me can get trapped in the cycle of housing instability, anyone can. But the solutions are out there. – Inequality.org
• Metro Area Growth at Risk from Recent Drop in Immigration – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• California and Florida Top New List of the Riskiest Housing Markets in the Nation – Realtor.com

From a paper by Gregor Semieniuk, Isabella M. Weber, Iain S. Weaver, Evan Wasner, Benjamin Braun, Philip B. Holden, Pablo Salas, Jean-Francois Mercure, and Neil R. Edwards:

“The 2022 oil and gas crisis resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstructed the energy transition and contributed to inflation, but their magnitude and beneficiaries have been insufficiently understood. Here we show the size of profits across countries and their distribution across socio-economic groups within the United States, using company income statements, comprehensive ownership data and a network model for propagating profits via shareholdings. We estimate that globally, net income in publicly listed oil and gas companies alone reached US$916 billion in 2022, with the United States the biggest beneficiary with claims on US$301 billion, more than U.S. investments of US$267 billion in the low carbon economy that year. In a network of U.S. shareholdings with 252,433 nodes including privately held U.S. companies, 50 % of profits went to the wealthiest 1 % of individuals, predominantly through direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast the bottom 50 % only received 1 %. The incremental U.S. fossil-fuel profits in 2022 relative to 2021 were enough to increase the disposable income of the wealthiest Americans by several percent and compensate a substantial part of their purchasing power loss from inflation that year, thereby exacerbating inflation inequality. These profits also reinforced existing racial and ethnic inequalities and inequalities between groups with different educational attainments. We discuss how an excess profit tax could be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts threaten continued volatility in oil and gas markets.”