The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Renáta Pitoňáková, Rudolf Kucharčík, and Ladislav Kabát:

“The accession to the European Union, several external shocks, and the questionable state interventions in the country’s business environment significantly impacted economic development of Slovakia. These phenomena were reflected in both the economic and social situation, namely the level of Gross domestic product (GDP) and rate of unemployment. The goal of our paper is to analyze the possible asymmetries in the unemployment-output relationship according to the Okun’s law. We used quarterly data to apply static and dynamic models in their symmetric and asymmetric forms (2009 Q1 – 2023 Q3). The results suggest that the labor market reacts more noticeably to GDP contraction than to GDP expansion. The outcomes are of interest to governing bodies managing labor market policy, primarily in the economic downturn, and for banks in controlling interest rates and inflation.”

From a paper by Kashif Nesar Rather and Mantu Kumar Mahalik:

“The attention surrounding the climate change has gained momentum over the last two decades, with significant stress on its consequential impact on gender inequality. Simultaneously, economies are caught in an environment of heightened uncertainty, potentially exerting influence on gender disparities. Within this framework, this study attempts to empirically investigate the implications of climate change and world uncertainty for gender inequality by using a balanced panel of 100 economies between 1995 and 2021. The novelty of this study lies in its adoption of Gender Inequality Index, a comprehensive measure quantifying gender disparity using three dimensions including reproductive health, economic empowerment, and labour market. Moreover, this study has adopted two different measures: the total ecological footprint to measure environmental pressures and ND-GAIN’s Vulnerability index to capture the climate change vulnerability, thereby ensuring comprehensive proxies for climate change dynamics. The estimated models also control for the effects of globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure. The panel cointegration tests establish a significant long-run relationship between the variables of the study. Furthermore, the long-run results of PMG-ARDL estimation technique indicate that both climate change and world uncertainty contribute to increasing the gender disparities. Additionally, the results reveal that globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure play crucial roles in diminishing gender disparities. The reliability of these findings is further confirmed by the PCSEs and DKSE estimation techniques. Moreover, the baseline findings obtained using total ecological footprint as a measure of climate change are consistent when climate change is proxied by Vulnerability Index. Potential policy suggestions for mitigating the detrimental gender ramifications stemming from climate change and rising world uncertainties are also discussed.”

From a book chapter by Sylvio Kappes, Louis-Philippe Rochon, Guillaume Vallet:

“With the recent resurgence of inflation — which had been dormant for the better part of the last 3 decades — monetary policy has once again taken centre stage as the only possible policy solution to inflation or the only game in town. Fiscal policy was never considered, and there has been no mention of the possibility of using fiscal policy to fight inflation except in some heterodox circles. As such, the entire responsibility to fight inflation was laid at the feet of independent central banks.”

From a paper by Cheol-Keun Cho and Myunghyun Kim:

“We consider a proxy FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression) model to analyze the
impact of an oil supply news shock on the Korean economy. To identify an oil supply news shock, we
use the variation in oil futures prices around OPEC production announcements as a proxy. Moreover, we
include a factor that captures the common movement of many Korean macro variables such as various
price indices and investment. The estimation results of the proxy FAVAR model show that an oil supply
news shock increases the real oil price and the US CPI, and decreases world oil production and US GDP.
As for Korean macro variables, GDP and net exports fall and CPI increases in response to the shock.”

Working papers and conferences:

• Affordable housing, unaffordable credit? Concentration and high-cost lending for manufactured homes – CEPR
• Housing and fertility – VoxEU
• Coverage Neglect in Homeowner’s Insurance – Philadelphia Fed
• What Drives the Capitalization of Energy Efficiency into House Prices?  Evidence from Italy – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• National Housing Survey. Consumer Housing Sentiment Down Year over Year for First Time Since 2023 – Fannie Mae
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 – Calculated Risk
• 50 tightest housing markets where sellers will have the most power this spring. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, 50 markets at the end of February 2025 still had at least 46% less-active inventory than in February 2019. – Fast Company
• These Unpopular Mortgages May Be the Key to Affordable Housing. Adjustable rate mortgages, which fell out of favor during the financial crisis, may well be ready for a comeback. – Bloomberg
• Refinancing Drives Mortgage Activity Higher in February – NAHB
• Pending Home Sales Are Down 6%, But Falling Mortgage Rates Are Starting to Attract Buyers – Redfin
• Buyers Have More Homes To Choose From as Mortgage Rates Drop—While Jobs Report Shows Unemployment Ticking Higher – Realtor.com
• Government Mortgage Relief Is No ‘Cash Cow’. The Mortgage Bankers Association replies to Allysia Finley. – Wall Street Journal
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• How Chicago plans to help its most rent-burdened residents – Axios
• 44 housing markets where inventory has spiked, and homebuyers have gained power. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 44 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Housing Supply Gap Reaches Nearly 4 Million in 2024 – Realtor.com
• It Will Take 7 Years To Fix the Housing Shortage at Current Construction Pace, Economists Say – Realtor.com
• The Impact of Opportunity Zones on Housing Supply – Economic Innovation Group
• Year-over-Year Declines for Construction Job Openings – NAHB
• Builders’ Profit Margins Improved in 2023 – NAHB
• ATTOM Ranks Best Counties for Buying Single-Family Rentals in 2025 – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Deporting Undocumented Workers Will Make Housing More Expensive. The effect will be most pronounced in Texas and California – Home Economics
• US Homebuyers Confront a New Wild Card This Year: Trump. High rates, high prices and the uncertainty of the White House’s policies are looming over the housing market during the most competitive time of year. – Bloomberg
• J.D. Vance Blames Zoning, Immigrants for High Housing Costs. Plus: Texas and Minnesota consider an aggressive suite of housing supply bills, while San Diego tries to ratchet up regulations on ADUs. – Reason
• Trump administration throws hundreds of affordable housing projects into limbo after contract cuts – AP
• How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability – NAHB
• Why housing affordability keeps getting worse – Axios
• How federal lands can be used to ease the housing crisis – The Hill
• Abundant Housing Is the Texas Miracle Worker. The State Senate’s Plan to Tackle Affordability – City of Yes
• Buying a Home? Without the Consumer Bureau, You Need to Be Your Own Watchdog. The C.F.P.B. had kept a close eye on mortgage lenders. But with the bureau hobbled, consumers should take several steps, starting with shopping for the best mortgage rates. – New York Times
• What’s Driving the Increasing Importance Consumers Place on Their Homes – Fannie Mae
• What Do We Buy Into When We Buy a Home? Homeownership, long a cherished American ideal, has become the subject of black comedies, midlife-crisis novels, and unintentionally dystopic reality TV. – New Yorker
• How the pandemic transformed the housing market in 5 years – Axios  
• Homes with Extreme Climate Risk Face Slower Sales, Bigger Discounts. Zillow research shows homes with extreme risk of flood and fire have a lower probability of being sold and a lower sales price compared to initial list price. – Zillow
• Urbanism with Chinese characteristics. Plus: Reducing the motherhood penalty by extending fertility, the steam networks of New York City, and the rise and fall of the Hanseatic league. – Work in Progress

On China:

• China’s property sector is showing positive changes, minister says – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] New Zealand Home Building Declines For Ninth Straight Quarter – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] What will happen to house prices this year? Major bank changes its mind – RNZ
• [New Zealand] What will happen to house prices this year? Major bank changes its mind – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Builders blindsided by CMHC move to block popular mortgage scheme –The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Mortgage broker sees Ontario home prices ‘grinding down’ amid trade war – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong to press on with selling residential plots amid warnings of oversupply. Development minister Bernadette Linn also says government will not give up on project to build artificial islands in waters off Lantau – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong urged to review public housing income threshold due to new minimum wage. If Housing Authority proposal on income levels is adopted, two-person household working 10 hours a day for 26 days per month at minimum wage will fail to qualify – South China Morning Post
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi residential real estate to attract $1.22 billion this year, consultancy says – Reuters
• [Spain] Vivienda escasa, precios de burbuja. El coste de las casas subió el año pasado a un ritmo que no se veía desde 2007, algo inasumible para miles de ciudadanos – El Pais
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s property market is thriving — and its neighbours are taking notes. Price rises of 147 per cent in five years, soaring skylines and a rush of new residents are an inspiration to some, a cautionary tale to others – FT
• [United Kingdom] Stamp duty deadline and economic gloom dampen UK housing market. Buyer demand fell to lowest level since November 2023 in February, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market has weakest month since late 2023, RICS survey shows – Reuters