The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Ichrak Dridi and Mohamed Malek Belhoula:

“Following the global financial crisis, the interconnection between financial stability and inflation stability has gained increasing recognition, challenging the notion that these objectives are mutually exclusive. This study empirically examines whether central banks, through the adoption of Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting (FFIT), can enhance stock market efficiency in emerging economies. Utilizing data from 36 emerging markets over the period 1995:Q1 to 2024:Q1, we employ Propensity Score Matching to mitigate self-selection and omitted variable biases. Our findings demonstrate that FFIT significantly improves stock market efficiency, with effects emerging after three quarters and persisting for at least two years, as substantiated by Staggered Difference-in-Differences analysis. These results remain robust across multiple sensitivity tests. Mediation analysis confirms that FFIT enhances efficiency primarily through reduced inflation and interest rate volatility and strengthened institutional credibility. Furthermore, results reveal that IT adoption also enhanced efficiency during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19, albeit with a lower amplitude compared to the full-sample analysis. By stabilizing inflation expectations and providing transparent policy guidance, FFIT enables investors to incorporate macroeconomic fundamentals into their decision-making, thereby enhancing market transparency and improving stock market efficiency.”

From a paper by Mihaela Simionescu:

“The Covid-19 pandemic enhanced economic issues like income/wealth inequality and inflation, with negative consequences that should be managed properly by policymakers. The relationship between inflation and economic inequality has been extensively studied, primarily through the lens of income disparities. However, the implications for wealth inequality, a more potent determinant of economic opportunity, social mobility, and political influence, remain under-explored. This study bridges this gap by empirically investigating the nonlinear association between inflation and income/wealth inequality, as proxied by top/bottom income/wealth shares in the EU in the period 1990–2022. The findings reveal a non-linear, U-shaped, association between inflation/expected inflation and top/bottom wealth and income shares for the overall EU, while inflation has no significant impact on the Gini index. However, there are few countries for which the U pattern is not validated. In addition, in general, joining the Eurozone decreased income and wealth inequality, and did not affect the wealth and income of the bottom 50% of the population. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms, a pathway analysis is conducted, suggesting that self-employment plays a pivotal role in transmitting the effects of inflation to income/wealth inequality. Moreover, immigration has a partial mediation effect in the relationship between wealth inequality and education.”

From a new paper by Ameni Mtibaa and Foued Badr Gabsi:

“Concerns about ensuring a sustainable environment are growing, attracting major attention from policy professionals worldwide. Therefore, this study investigates the nonlinear impacts of fiscal consolidation on CO₂ emissions in 17 OECD countries from 1978 to 2020. To probe the short- and long-term connections across various quantiles of CO₂ emissions, we adopted panel QARDL frameworks. The Granger non-causality test was used to investigate the variables’ association with CO₂ emission. The study’s main findings confirm the overall beneficial effect of fiscal consolidation on carbon emissions. It reduces CO₂ emissions at almost all quantiles in the short run. By contrast, in the long run, the effect is positive at lower quantiles and turns negative at upper quantiles. Furthermore, a causality analysis identified a bidirectional causal relationship between fiscal consolidation and CO₂ emissions, confirming the existence of mutual influence. While Keynesian theory links fiscal consolidation to economic recession, our findings support the non-Keynesian view, showing that such policy can foster economic growth and thereby contribute to reducing CO₂ emissions in the short run. Thus, OECD countries are orienting public spending and carbon taxation toward environmentally friendly practices while ensuring environmental protection and deficit reduction. Nonetheless, the identified mixed effect in the long run highlights the need for sustained consolidation policies by enhancing expenditure efficiency and adopting targeted taxation measures to achieve lasting emission reductions and support the transition to cleaner energy, even when emissions are relatively low.”

On cross-country:

• EU to propose short-term rental rules to tackle ‘social crisis’ in housing. Bloc’s first affordable housing plan to cover issues such as tenants’ rights, property speculation and tourist lets – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• List prices and “hot” real estate markets – Real Estate Economics
• National Football League franchise departures and nearby home prices – Real Estate Economics
• The rise of corporate landlords: An examination of behavioral differences in the multifamily market – Real Estate Economics

On China:

• China sees better living environment, emerging new real estate model, stable construction growth in 2021-2025 – Xinhua
• China’s property managers pivot to elderly services and pet care amid real estate woes. Management firms explore new income streams as homeowners demand fee cuts amid falling property prices – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] RBA governor blames high house prices on a lack of supply, not monetary policy – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] Reserve Bank to ease LVR restrictions. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand intends to ease mortgage loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions from 1 December 2025. – Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• [New Zealand] What’s really going on with the housing market? – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] The peak of real estate madness is behind us, but there are tumultuous, complicated times ahead. Here are 10 charts to explain where we are – Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Canada Home Sales Hit ‘Bump in Road’ After Five Months of Growth – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada Existing-Home Sales Fall in September. Existing-home sales dropped 1.7% in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis – Wall Street Journal
• [Ireland] Homeowners fearful that 36pc jump in house prices will see them hit with huge Local Property Tax bill. One area has seen cost of a house shoot up by 48pc in just four year – Irish Independent
• [Korea] South Korea Unveils New Curbs to Rein in Red-Hot Housing Market – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Mexico] Situación Inmobiliaria México. Segundo semestre de 2025 – BBVA
• [Netherlands] Migrants overpaying for substandard homes face blame for Netherlands housing crisis. With general elections in two weeks, housing crisis is a big issue, with the far-right Party for Freedom blaming migrants – The Guardian
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – September 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] British homebuilder Bellway raises dividend, launches buyback after upbeat annual profit – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Why has housing delivery in London fallen so dramatically over the past decade? – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Mega-Rich Plotting Return to London, Sotheby’s Housing Boss Says – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Renters deserve credit for paying rent — and Zillow is delivering – Zillow
• Government Shutdown Disrupts Housing Data—but Relief Is in Sight as Mortgage Rates Hold Steady – Realtor.com   
• September 2025 Rental Report: Rental Affordability Improved Compared to a Year Ago – Realtor.com
• A Brief History of Bad Housing-Finance Policy. The 30-year fixed rate, low-down-payment mortgage pays down too slowly for those with weak credit and volatile incomes. – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• September 2025 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Number of Homes for Sale Continues To Grow—but Housing Market Moves at a Crawl – Realtor.com
• Gavin Newsom signs contentious bill to spur housing construction
• The California governor approved the proposal despite fierce pushback from the Los Angeles mayor and City Council. – Politico
• California Wants to Make It Easier to Build Housing. Los Angeles Objects. Gov. Newsom Friday signed a bill that will make it easier to build apartment buildings. Some cities fear a loss of control. – Wall Street Journal
• Squeezing Builders Isn’t the Way to Lower Housing Costs – Bloomberg
• Cash Is King: Trends in All-Cash Home Sales – Realtor.com
• Custom Home Building Share Declines in 2024 – NAHB
• California tries to fix its housing mess. The YIMBY movement wins a big victory – The Economist
• Builders Stay Cautious as Single-Family Permits Weaken – NAHB
• Amid Market Challenges, Builder Expectations Rise in October – NAHB
• Historic California Housing Bill Could Bring More Apartment Buildings Near Transit – Realtor.com
• Home Sales Profits Up in Third Quarter to Near 50 Percent Margin – ATTOM  
• Remodeling Expected to Continue Slow but Steady Growth Into Next Year – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

On other developments:    

• How Would A Recession Cascade through Real Estate? – Home Economics
• Is The Housing Affordability Crisis an Illusion? – Econlib
• Mapping a Way Out of the US Housing Affordability Crisis. Sara Bronin, founder of the National Zoning Atlas, has won the Heinz Award for her ongoing project to map the land-use rules that restrict housing production. – Bloomberg
• Where Have All the Young Home Buyers Gone? Check the Stock Market. The rent vs. buy debate has taken on new meaning for Gen Z thanks to soaring share prices and more investment options – Wall Street Journal
• Bipartisan Bill To Tackle the Housing Crisis Passes the Senate During Government Shutdown – Realtor.com
• Investor-owned housing helps renters. It is not the infusion of capital from investors that disrupts housing markets; it is local government policies that do not let supply keep up with demand. – Reason
• The Government Shutdown Is Hitting the Housing Market Hard—and Florida Shows What’s at Stake – Realtor.com
• Fair Housing Takes Brunt as Trump Begins Mass Firings at HUD – Bloomberg
• Seattle Tech Workers Are Fueling a Real-Estate Rush in the Cascade Mountains. Workers from Amazon and Microsoft are spending big on homes in Suncadia, an all-season resort in Cle Elum – Wall Street Journal
• My Husband Thinks Buying a House We Can’t Afford Is Our Ticket to Security. Uh, No? – Slate