The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Antonis Tsitouras & Harry Papapanagos:

“Few studies have explored the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, economic growth, education, and inflation influence income inequality in developed economies. This study examines these factors in Greece using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The novelty of this research lies in its application of three distinct measures of income inequality: (a) the Gini index, (b) the income share of the poorest 20% quantile, and (c) the income share of the top 20% quantile. The results have significant theoretical and policy implications. First, GDP per capita elasticities strongly support Kuznets’ theory. Second, while FDI does not significantly affect on income distribution in the short term, it predominantly improves income distribution at the upper and median levels in the long term while reducing the income share of the lowest 20% quantile. Third, trade openness initially increases income inequality but primarily improves distribution at the lower and median levels over time. Fourth, although education initially exacerbates economic inequality, it significantly supports lower and median income levels in the long run. Finally, inflation negatively impacts income equality in both the medium and long term, boosting the earnings of the top 20% quantile over time. These findings suggest that governments should address income inequality by focusing on sustainable growth, improving education, implementing reforms to attract FDI, boosting exports, and adopting measures to control inflation.”

From a paper by Amir Mohammad Moghani, and Reyhaneh Loni:

“Energy plays a critical role in the economic advancement of nations. The reliance of oil-rich countries on energy revenues underscores the importance of ensuring the security of this vital resource. Safeguarding the security of energy resources is a top priority for the national security of the producing countries. The current geopolitical landscape is heavily influenced by energy considerations, making energy governance a key factor in enhancing national security. This review paper aims to discuss and present the role of energy governance impacts on the national security of oil-rich countries based on energy governance literature. The scientific publications selected to be studied are from 2010 to 2024. The findings suggest that effective energy governance plays a crucial role in enhancing the national security of countries abundant in oil resources. It is imperative to tailor energy governance to bolster national resilience in the energy sector, given the interconnectedness of energy governance, energy security, and national security. As such, pivotal aspects of energy governance encompass revenues and resources management, stakeholder participation, global politics and international relations, and the culture and value of societies.”

On cross-country:

• Which countries most love working from home? And what has it done to their economies? – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing and inequality: A critical link in economic disparities – VoxEU
• When Developers Hold Office: Shaping Housing Supply Through Local Politics – CEPR
• Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in Us Housing Markets – SSRN
• Wealth and Risk Attitude: Evidence from House Price Increase in Korea – SSRN
• Mortgages for Second Residences and Housing Markets – SSRN

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Why Labor and the Coalition’s housing policies could make the crisis worse – The Guardian
• [Australia] Sydney Boarding Homes Threatened by Luxury Builds as Prices Soar – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australians could be waiting more than 70 years for affordable housing if prices follow path pushed by major parties. Labor and the Coalition have launched policies to tackle the crisis, but they shied away from the idea of falling house prices – The Guardian
• [Australia] The electorates where house prices rose (and fell) the most – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Canada] ‘My home is worth millions – but my own kids are priced out of this city’ – BBC
• [Canada] Homebuilding in Canada stalls despite population explosion – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Newfoundland and Labrador’s population growth dwarfs homebuilding rate – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Canada’s Prime Minister Pushes Country to Become the Housing Factory of the World. Mark Carney is banking on factory-built homes to alleviate the country’s housing crisis. But will it work? – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada’s Million-Dollar Housing Crisis. Soaring housing costs, with many homes nearing $1 million, have sparked an exodus from cities like Vancouver, and Canadians want their next prime minister to do something about it. – New York Times
• Why Greater Toronto Could Decide Who Wins Canada’s Election. The Conservatives had enjoyed a lead over Liberals in the region largely because of rising housing and food costs. But President Trump’s tariffs have shifted the equation. – New York Times
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market was poised for a comeback. Then trade war jitters set in – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Housing Market Monitor – National Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Carney Pushes Canada to Become the Housing Factory of the World – Bloomberg
• [Canada] The housing crisis is made worse by a policy mismatch. Serious social and economic consequences could unfold unless deficient housing policy is addressed and better aligned with immigration policy. – Policy Options
• [Greece] Decoding Housing Affordability in Greece – Alpha Bank 
• [India] Mumbai’s Rush to Rebuild Comes With a Warning. The redevelopment frenzy in India’s commercial hub is dangerously close to peaking – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] Netherlands a ‘cautionary tale’ for Coalition’s mortgage deduction scheme, expert warns. Cody Hochstenbach says the scheme in his country has driven up home prices and weighs heavily on taxpayers – The Guardian
• [South Africa] Backyard Micro-Flats Aim to Ease South Africa’s Housing Crisis. A startup is fronting the costs for homeowners to become landlords as part of a broader effort to expand affordable housing in poor townships. – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Spain to speed up industrial construction of social housing with EU funds – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage completions rose by 50% in March as UK buyers rushed to beat stamp duty deadline. Barclays says March was busiest month in property market since 2021, driven by scramble to avoid higher costs – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London Rents Surge. Why Are Landlords Miserable? The rapid increase should attract investor capital, but new environmental rules have undermined the laws of economics. – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• US Mortgage Rates Surge by Most in a Year as Tariffs Hit Markets – Bloomberg
• US Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Reach Highest Since Mid-February – Bloomberg
• Zillow turns full-blown housing market bear—just look at its new forecast. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026. Last month, Zillow economists still thought prices would rise this year. – Fast Company
• Home Price Growth Remains Steady in First Quarter – Fannie Mae
• National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index—March 2025 – AEI
• Housing market shift: 60 major markets are now seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, 60 are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis, according to ResiClub’s monthly analysis. – Fast Company
• Cape Cod Sounds Alarm on Housing Crisis Amid Skyrocketing Home Prices – Realtor.com
• Americans Are Migrating Back to the Heartland States—and It’s Causing Home Prices To Spike in These 5 Cities – Realtor.com
• March 2025 Rental Report: Rents Continue To Fall, but Tariffs on Imported Steel and Aluminum Could Exert Upward Pressure on Prices – Realtor.com  
• Profit Margins on Home Sales Continue to Drop in First Quarter – ATTOM

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years – Redfin
• Continued Gains Projected for Remodeling Amid Economic Uncertainty – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• America’s housing shortage by the numbers – The Hill
• US single-family housing starts tumble to an eight-month low in March – Reuters
• The Home-Building Season Is Starting Off Badly, New Data Shows. Economic uncertainty and rising material costs from tariffs darken the outlook for newly built homes – Wall Street Journal
• B.C. group warns that softwood tariffs could lead to soaring U.S. rebuilding costs – The Globe and Mail
• Single-Family Home Construction Plunges as Builders Grapple With Higher Costs and Weak Demand – Realtor.com
• U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years – Redfin 
• California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March – Calculated Risk
• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies turned slightly positive in Q1, before Tariff Announcement – Calculated Risk
• Build, Baby, Build: Unshackling Homeowners and Developers from Local Red Tape – New America
• New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March. Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Rise in March – NAHB
• New-Home Sales Make a Surprising Jump Led by Affordable Inventory – Realtor.com
• The Sun Belt housing market is so weak the largest U.S. homebuilder pulls back. D.R. Horton is ramping up concessions in regional housing markets—particularly in pockets of Florida and Texas where active inventory has climbed the most. – Fast Company
• See How Your State Ranks on the New Realtor.com Report Card for Homebuilding and Affordability – Realtor.com

On impact of tariffs on housing:

• US labor market stable; tariffs depress single-family homebuilding – Reuters

On other developments:    

• Booming Houston. What’s driving it? – Home Economics
• 9 Free Ways to Increase Arizona Home Ownership. What Arizona can do to help stabilize house prices, which would increase Arizona home ownership, family wealth, and economic growth, all for FREE. – Real Estate Decoded
• One map shows the affordable housing gap for low-income renters across the US – Business Insider
• Housing and Demographics – Calculated Risk
• White House Eyes Overhaul of Federal Housing Aid to the Poor. The Trump administration has considered sharply curtailing vouchers as part of its budget for the 2026 fiscal year. – New York Times
• Trump Administration Aims to Sell Housing Department Headquarters. The building has been added to a list of properties that the administration says it is trying to offload in order to eliminate waste. – New York Times
• Low-Income Renters Can’t Get the Housing Vouchers They Need. A fraction of rent-burdened households receive Section 8 vouchers — and they may not even be able to use them. – New York Times
• As Trump jettisons its staff, HUD puts its D.C. headquarters up for sale – NPR
• How is the climate crisis affecting affordable housing? Housing costs all over the world are skyrocketing, and climate change-driven disasters are only making it worse. Could city planning and risk reduction help? – DW
• Why Florida’s Condo Owners Are So Desperate to Sell. Insurance increases, special assessments and limited financing options have elevated costs beyond what many can bear – Wall Street Journal
• Florida Homeowners Are in Crisis. Lawmakers Want To Offer Tax Relief as a Solution – Realtor.com
• A house divided by housing – Politico
• California Housing Bills Face Crucial Hearing Today. Bills designed to allow more starter homes and apartments near transit face an uncertain future in the state Senate’s housing committee. – Reason
• The Rooftop: Innovative Ideas to Solve the Housing Crisis. A new blog and multimedia series hosted by New America, shaped by its contributors – New America 
• The Future of Fair Housing in America: A Q&A with Chiraag Bains – New America 

From a paper by Domingo Rodríguez Benavides, Nancy Muller Durán, and Ignacio Perrotini Hernández:

“The relationship between fluctuations of the unemployment rate and the growth rate of output (Okun’s Law) in Mexico, the United States (US) and Canada during the period 2006-2019 is dealt with in the present paper. We posit the hypothesis that cyclical shocks can permanently affect structural unemployment. A non-linear autorregresive distributive lag (NARDL) model is displayed to test the assumption of symmetric effects in Okun´s Law analysis. Our econometric results suggest that while in the US and Canada there is evidence of an asymmetric Okun’s Law in the short run and the long-term, respectively, for the case of Mexico no such evidence exists. These discrepancies speak to the relevance of looking at the existence of non- linear effects in Okun´s Law. The accurate identification of such effects can shed light for both labour market reforms and stabilization policy design.”