The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Michael D. Bauer, Diego R. Känzig, and Glenn D. Rudebusch:

“Putting a price on carbon emissions helps mitigate climate change but may also raise overall price
inflation. Using high-frequency event studies based on regulatory news in the European carbon market,
we show that carbon price surprises generate significant increases not only in energy futures prices,
but also in inflation swap prices and breakeven inflation rates. These measures of market-based
inflation expectations respond positively at both short and long horizons, with significant effects up to
ten years out. Such long-lived inflationary consequences of climate policy are relevant for central
banks. However, despite the sustained increases in market-based inflation expectations, forwardlooking
nominal interest rates show no meaningful response to the carbon policy shocks, suggesting
that investors do not anticipate that the European Central Bank will lean against the inflationary effects
of higher carbon prices.”

On cross-country:

• The world’s most unaffordable housing is not where you think. Asia’s great cities will founder without more reasonably priced homes – The Economist
• The future runs through African cities. Getting African cities right is a defining development challenge of our time. – Ideas in Development
• Analytical house prices indicators – OECD  
• Residential Mortgage Rates by Country – Global Property Guide
• Addressing the housing crisis through the Recovery and Resilience Facility – European Parliament
• English speaking countries are miserable. Is housing to blame? – Home Economics

Working papers and conferences:

• Workshop on Global Housing Markets and the Macroeconomy – Dallas Fed
• A Critique of an Urban Studies Article on the Housing Supply Impact of Land Use Reforms – Econ Journal Watch
• Reply to “A Critique of an Urban Studies Article on the Housing Supply Impact of Land Use Reforms” – Econ Journal Watch
• Do State Abortion Bans Affect Housing Markets? – Econofact
• A Tale of Two Countries: The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China – Brookings
• Temporal Focal Points and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from U.S. Mortgage Lending – Philadelphia Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Australia] Sydney, Melbourne Home Prices Decline as Affordability Bites – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s land value has gone through the roof. Where does that leave young people who want to buy a home? – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Prime Minister Carney secures new partnership with Ontario to cut taxes on housing and boost supply – Prime Minister of Canada
• [Canada] Not every zoning change in Vancouver needs its own public hearing – Fraser Institute
• [Cambodia] Cambodia’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Austria’s The People Snapping Up Japanese Houses That the Locals Won’t Touch. Vacated homes are a hot item for Americans and other foreigners. Just watch out for termites. – Wall Street Journal
• [South Africa] Cape Town Housing Is Booming. Many Residents Are Unhappy About It. A shortage of affordable housing in the coastal city in South Africa has forced many people to live far outside the city center, while tourists occupy prime real estate. – New York Times
• [South Africa] Cape Town’s Housing Problem – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] Latest House Price Index Report – Hometrack
• [United Kingdom] Housing market to soften amid Iran war fallout, Nationwide says – Capital Economics
• [Vietnam] Vietnam’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• US Housing Outlook: Higher Mortgage Rates Not Helpful – Apollo
• Mamdani confronts the politics of property taxes as rent freeze looms. Larger rental buildings, including those that would be affected by Mamdani’s proposed rent freeze, face a higher tax burden than other homes. – Politico
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.9% year-over-year in January. FHFA House Prices up 1.6% YoY in January – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in February; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year. Punta Gorda House Prices Down 23% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% – Calculated Risk
• FHFA’s Q4 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Continues to Decelerate in January – Haver Analytics
• US single-family home prices rise moderately in January, FHFA says – Reuters
• The Iran war is raising your mortgage rate. Inventory is finally rising, but war-driven increases in mortgage rates are making it harder for buyers to take advantage. – Slow Boring

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Are New York’s Environmental Concerns Worsening a Housing Shortage? Gov. Kathy Hochul is proposing to exempt a majority of new housing from state environmental reviews, arguing that sufficient safeguards are in place at the local level. – New York Times
• How to Keep the Suburbs Tenant-Free. The housing bill now in Congress may seek to increase the housing supply—but not for renters. – The Atlantic
• Japan Is Placing a Multibillion-Dollar Bet on the U.S. Housing Market. Home construction is slowing, but Japanese investors and builders are moving in anyway and soon will own 6% of the business in America – Wall Street Journal
• Reconciliation 2.0 Should Put Housing Supply First – Cato
• Supply Struggles: A Multifamily Melodrama – Richmond Fed 
• Trump Tax Law’s Affordable Housing Boost Hits Snag – Bloomberg

On other developments:    

• The Evolving Role of Single-Family Rental Investors—and How They Can Leverage Their Property Management and Rehab Capacity for Greater Impact – Urban Institute
• Housing Is Stable, but Still Out of Reach for Many Americans. As mortgage rates rise and home prices remain elevated, Wharton’s Susan Wachter explains why the U.S. housing market’s core problem is not financial instability, but affordability — and what can be done to address it. – Wharton
• Bad Policy Made Housing Unaffordable. We are simply asking the Trump administration to reform an outdated system. – Wall Street Journal

From a VoxEU post by Karan Bhasin and Prakash Loungani:

“Many governments have to mitigate concerns about fiscal sustainability, without triggering near-term output losses or reversing progress on containing poverty or inequality. This column assesses how the design of fiscal consolidation packages shapes their impact on aggregate and distributional outcomes. It finds that the careful design of fiscal consolidation (making use of available monetary space or choosing tax-based instruments) can lower the output and unemployment costs of austerity and mitigate the adverse impacts on poverty and inequality. The results stress the importance of monetary-fiscal coordination for maintaining fiscal buffers, while limiting setbacks to development goals.”

From a paper by Galina Hale, Michael Halling, Nora Alice. Paulus, and Han H.G. Pham:

“Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees requires that cumulative carbon dioxide emissions remain
within a finite remaining carbon budget. How this budget is allocated across countries raises
questions of fairness and development. This paper evaluates whether equity-based carbon
allocations are compatible with sustained economic growth in emerging and developing economies.
We compute country-level fair shares of the remaining carbon budget under the equal-cumulativeper-
capita (ECPC) principle. Using data for 162 countries between 1950 and 2023, we then estimate
the historical relationship between income and per-capita CO2 emissions across income groups and
use these elasticities to simulate cumulative emissions until 2050. Our results show that ECPC
implies strongly negative remaining carbon budgets for most advanced economies, while lowerincome
countries retain positive but constrained allocations. Under historically observed income–
emissions elasticities, many developing countries would exceed their fair shares when converging
toward advanced-economy income levels. At the aggregate level, unused allocations offset only
17% of the combined carbon budget shortfall implied by countries exceeding their allocation and
the negative fair shares arising from historical responsibilities. In a scenario in which we assume
that the technology of advanced economies is transferred to all countries, the carbon budget
coverage increases to 38%.”