The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Munseob Lee, Claudia Macaluso, and Felipe Schwartzman:

“Our paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races. The cyclical volatility of real income differs significantly for households of different races and income levels, reflecting differential exposure to fluctuations in employment and consumer prices. All Black households are disproportionately affected by employment fluctuations, whereas price volatility is only particularly pronounced for Black households with income above the national median. The latter face 40 percent higher price volatility than both poorer households of the same race and white households of similar income. To evaluate the effects of policy, we propose a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous exposure to employment and price volatility. We find that an accommodative monetary stance generates asymmetric outcomes within race groups. Low-income households experience unemployment stabilization benefits, while high income ones incur real income volatility costs. Differences are especially large among Black households. Reducing the volatility of unemployment by 1 percentage point engenders a 1.17 percentage point reduction in overall income volatility for poorer Black households, but an increase of 0.6 percentage points in income volatility for richer Black households.”

From a paper by Won Joong Kim, Juyoung Ko, Won Soon Kwon, and Chunyan Piao:

“Different crises, such as the GFC, COVID-19 pandemic, and RU-UA war, lead to the common economic consequences: fluctuations in global inflation. In a globalized world, global inflation matters because it also affects the national economy. Although the literature provides determinants of inflation at national and regional levels, no studies have measured global inflation and analyzed its sources of fluctuations during the GFC, COVID-19, and RU-UA war periods. To fill this void, we measure monthly global inflation and estimate its dynamics using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. The results from global data show that global inflation during crisis periods is greatly affected by the monetary and the oil price shocks. Finally, the application to the EMU member countries implies that high EMU inflation rates in recent years were dominantly caused by excessive expansionary monetary policy in the EMU system.”

Venue: University of North Carolina at Charlotte | 3 & 4 March 2025

The Foresight Practitioner Conference (FPC) brings together preeminent forecasting practitioners and business leaders to network, learn, and explore emerging and cutting-edge aspects of forecasting. The conference focuses on collaborating and improving forecast practice by showcasing businesses, subject matter experts, and organizations that significantly impact value. The conference is hosted by the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and includes the first-annual IIF Practice Competition.

Mark your calendar for ISF 2025! Beijing, China | June 29 – July 2 IIF is now accepting abstract submissions for ISF 2025 ~ Visit their website for more information., For more information on Keynote Speakers, venue, lodging and social activities, go to the ISF website. If you have any questions, contact them at isf@forecasters.org.