The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Housing in Europe – 2024 edition – Eurostat
• Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook 2025 – Fitch Ratings

Working papers and conferences:

• Monetary policy and housing markets: insights using a novel measure of housing supply elasticity – BIS
• Assessing expectations of European house prices – ESRI
• Assessing Assessors – NBER
• The Forces Keeping Home Prices High. Cameron Murray on housing market equilibria – Home Economics

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Realtor.com 2025 Housing Forecast – Realtor.com
• Where home prices are expected to go in 2025, predicted by real estate data giant. Given the recent jump in inventory, CoreLogic now has lower expectations for national home price growth in 2025. – Fast Company
• How 2024’s Housing Market Sets the Stage for 2025 – CoreLogic
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Third Quarter 2024 – NAHB
• Housing Markets Facing Greater Risk of Decline Concentrated in California, New Jersey, Illinois, and Florida – ATTOM
• Top 10 Most Vulnerable U.S. Housing Markets in Q3 2024 – ATTOM
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Home Price Expectations Survey – Fannie Mae
• Expert Panel Upwardly Revises Home Price Growth Outlook, Still Expects Deceleration in 2025 and 2026. Panel Also Forecasts Stagnant Home Sales and Only Modestly Lower Mortgage Rates – Fannie Mae
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November. Another Year-over-year Sales Gain in November – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Rise in November Amid Post-Election Market Volatility – NAHB
• Wall Street Is Betting Billions on Rental Homes as Ownership Slips Out of Reach. Build-to-rent homes offer upscale amenities and desirable locations – Wall Street Journal
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 – Calculated Risk
• What Determines the Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage? – Fannie Mae

On the US—other developments:    

• A ‘Silver Tsunami’ Won’t Solve Housing Affordability Challenges – Zillow
• Trump Policies 2.0: What Can State, Local Governments Expect? – CoreLogic
• December CPI Blog: Updating our Housing Model – The White House
• November’s Housing Market Crawled to Its Slowest Pace in 5 Years—Even as Prices Fell and Housing Stock Jumped – Realtor.com
• New York City Approves a Plan to Create 80,000 New Homes. The City Council passed a major housing plan known as “City of Yes.” Experts and elected officials say it is only a first step to address the housing crisis. – New York Times  
• The Insurance Crisis Continues to Weigh on Homeowners – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• How Bob Dylan, Housing Prices, and Harvard show that Networks Matter. Dylan’s journey from unknown to icon illuminates a broader truth about success: networks matter, and access to them is becoming increasingly restricted. – The Studies Show
• Consumer Housing Sentiment Up Significantly Year over Year. Jump in Confidence Driven Largely by Increased Optimism that Mortgage Rates Will Fall – Fannie Mae
• Questioning the Housing Crisis: Introduction to a Series – Cato Institute
• Housing Availability and Affordability: Evidence That the United States Is Not in a Crisis. During the past few years many groups have suggested that the United States is experiencing a housing crisis, one marked by a supply deficit and affordability problems. – Cato Institute
• How big is the U.S. housing shortage? – NPR
• Mortgage Regulators Are Shrugging Off Climate Risk. It Could Cost Taxpayers Billions. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which backstop most U.S. mortgages, know floods and fires are a growing problem. But little action has been taken. – New York Times
• Foreclosure Filings Ease Nationwide in November 2024 Amid Seasonal Influences – ATTOM
• Why Housing Is a Frontline Defense Against Climate Change – Time
• Inflation Remains Sticky Despite Easing Housing Costs – NAHB
• Can the U.S. Climb Out of Its ‘Unprecedented’ Housing Crisis? The 2024 housing market was the slowest in decades. Next year’s might not be much better. It may come down to how many new homes can be built. – New York Times 
• Wall Street Is Betting Billions on Rental Homes as Ownership Slips Out of Reach. Build-to-rent homes offer upscale amenities and desirable locations – Wall Street Journal
• The Housing Industry Never Recovered From the Great Recession. A decade of depression in construction led to a concentrated, sclerotic industry. – The American Prospect

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] How the housing crisis is reshaping Australia – The Guardian
• [Australia] Forced to move by the Australian housing crisis: three-hour commutes and ‘never mind seeing your family’ – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] An American-Style Housing Crisis in New Zealand. What the United States can learn from the Pacific nation – The Atlantic

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Why were these mortgage borrowers left out of the latest stress-test change? – The Globe and Mail
• [Ireland] Irish House Prices Are Overvalued by Up to 10%, Says ESRI. Housing supply constraints has led to an increase in prices. Report says property market at risk of a ‘painful correction’ – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] ESRI again highlights regulator’s role in fanning house prices. Think-tank not backing off previous suggestion that loosening mortgage rules boosted the property market – The Irish Times
• [Italy] Renters in Rome struggle as coming Holy Year dries up housing market – Reuters
• [Korea] The Bank of Korea Moves Beyond Monetary Policy. Earlier this year, South Korea’s central bank worked with government ministries to devise macroprudential measures to stabilize the country’s housing market. This shows that monetary policymakers can, and perhaps should, play a critical role in tackling structural challenges that could profoundly affect future prosperity. – Project Syndicate
• [Portugal] Portugal’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [South Africa] South Africa’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] El precio de la vivienda no cede y sube otro 8,1% en el tercer trimestre, su mayor repunte en dos años y medio. Los pisos a estrenar se encarecen casi un 10% en un año, según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Los desahucios sobre residencia habitual caen más de un 20% respecto al segundo trimester – El Pais
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Prioritise people’s needs ‘over newts’ in housing policy, says Angela Rayner. Housing secretary says wildlife should be protected but not at the expense of building the homes the country needs – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Jump Most in Over Two Years, Halifax Says. Average prices rise 1.3% in November to hit new record high. Strong labor market and BOE interest-rate cut support market – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] England house prices ‘affordable’ only for richest 10% in 2022-23. Office for National Statistics data highlights property market pressures – FT 

From a paper by Munseob Lee, Claudia Macaluso, and Felipe Schwartzman:

“Our paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races. The cyclical volatility of real income differs significantly for households of different races and income levels, reflecting differential exposure to fluctuations in employment and consumer prices. All Black households are disproportionately affected by employment fluctuations, whereas price volatility is only particularly pronounced for Black households with income above the national median. The latter face 40 percent higher price volatility than both poorer households of the same race and white households of similar income. To evaluate the effects of policy, we propose a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous exposure to employment and price volatility. We find that an accommodative monetary stance generates asymmetric outcomes within race groups. Low-income households experience unemployment stabilization benefits, while high income ones incur real income volatility costs. Differences are especially large among Black households. Reducing the volatility of unemployment by 1 percentage point engenders a 1.17 percentage point reduction in overall income volatility for poorer Black households, but an increase of 0.6 percentage points in income volatility for richer Black households.”

From a paper by Won Joong Kim, Juyoung Ko, Won Soon Kwon, and Chunyan Piao:

“Different crises, such as the GFC, COVID-19 pandemic, and RU-UA war, lead to the common economic consequences: fluctuations in global inflation. In a globalized world, global inflation matters because it also affects the national economy. Although the literature provides determinants of inflation at national and regional levels, no studies have measured global inflation and analyzed its sources of fluctuations during the GFC, COVID-19, and RU-UA war periods. To fill this void, we measure monthly global inflation and estimate its dynamics using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. The results from global data show that global inflation during crisis periods is greatly affected by the monetary and the oil price shocks. Finally, the application to the EMU member countries implies that high EMU inflation rates in recent years were dominantly caused by excessive expansionary monetary policy in the EMU system.”

Venue: University of North Carolina at Charlotte | 3 & 4 March 2025

The Foresight Practitioner Conference (FPC) brings together preeminent forecasting practitioners and business leaders to network, learn, and explore emerging and cutting-edge aspects of forecasting. The conference focuses on collaborating and improving forecast practice by showcasing businesses, subject matter experts, and organizations that significantly impact value. The conference is hosted by the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and includes the first-annual IIF Practice Competition.