The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Jean-Francois Verne:

“This study considers the nonlinear relationship between GDP growth and unemployment in France (1975–2024) using a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model. Findings reveal a threshold unemployment rate of 7.93%, above which the traditional Okun’s law holds (GDP growth reduces unemployment). Below this threshold, an inverted Okun’s law emerges, where economic growth coincides with rising unemployment. This is explained by technological advancements, skill mismatches, and delayed employment adjustments. The results indicate that macroeconomic policies based on linear assumptions are limited in their capacity to address unemployment challenges effectively. Recognizing these nonlinear dynamics is crucial for designing effective labor market policies that account for asymmetries in economic fluctuations.”

From a paper by Ichrak Dridi and Mohamed Malek Belhoula:

“Following the global financial crisis, the interconnection between financial stability and inflation stability has gained increasing recognition, challenging the notion that these objectives are mutually exclusive. This study empirically examines whether central banks, through the adoption of Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting (FFIT), can enhance stock market efficiency in emerging economies. Utilizing data from 36 emerging markets over the period 1995:Q1 to 2024:Q1, we employ Propensity Score Matching to mitigate self-selection and omitted variable biases. Our findings demonstrate that FFIT significantly improves stock market efficiency, with effects emerging after three quarters and persisting for at least two years, as substantiated by Staggered Difference-in-Differences analysis. These results remain robust across multiple sensitivity tests. Mediation analysis confirms that FFIT enhances efficiency primarily through reduced inflation and interest rate volatility and strengthened institutional credibility. Furthermore, results reveal that IT adoption also enhanced efficiency during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19, albeit with a lower amplitude compared to the full-sample analysis. By stabilizing inflation expectations and providing transparent policy guidance, FFIT enables investors to incorporate macroeconomic fundamentals into their decision-making, thereby enhancing market transparency and improving stock market efficiency.”

From a paper by Mihaela Simionescu:

“The Covid-19 pandemic enhanced economic issues like income/wealth inequality and inflation, with negative consequences that should be managed properly by policymakers. The relationship between inflation and economic inequality has been extensively studied, primarily through the lens of income disparities. However, the implications for wealth inequality, a more potent determinant of economic opportunity, social mobility, and political influence, remain under-explored. This study bridges this gap by empirically investigating the nonlinear association between inflation and income/wealth inequality, as proxied by top/bottom income/wealth shares in the EU in the period 1990–2022. The findings reveal a non-linear, U-shaped, association between inflation/expected inflation and top/bottom wealth and income shares for the overall EU, while inflation has no significant impact on the Gini index. However, there are few countries for which the U pattern is not validated. In addition, in general, joining the Eurozone decreased income and wealth inequality, and did not affect the wealth and income of the bottom 50% of the population. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms, a pathway analysis is conducted, suggesting that self-employment plays a pivotal role in transmitting the effects of inflation to income/wealth inequality. Moreover, immigration has a partial mediation effect in the relationship between wealth inequality and education.”

From a new paper by Ameni Mtibaa and Foued Badr Gabsi:

“Concerns about ensuring a sustainable environment are growing, attracting major attention from policy professionals worldwide. Therefore, this study investigates the nonlinear impacts of fiscal consolidation on CO₂ emissions in 17 OECD countries from 1978 to 2020. To probe the short- and long-term connections across various quantiles of CO₂ emissions, we adopted panel QARDL frameworks. The Granger non-causality test was used to investigate the variables’ association with CO₂ emission. The study’s main findings confirm the overall beneficial effect of fiscal consolidation on carbon emissions. It reduces CO₂ emissions at almost all quantiles in the short run. By contrast, in the long run, the effect is positive at lower quantiles and turns negative at upper quantiles. Furthermore, a causality analysis identified a bidirectional causal relationship between fiscal consolidation and CO₂ emissions, confirming the existence of mutual influence. While Keynesian theory links fiscal consolidation to economic recession, our findings support the non-Keynesian view, showing that such policy can foster economic growth and thereby contribute to reducing CO₂ emissions in the short run. Thus, OECD countries are orienting public spending and carbon taxation toward environmentally friendly practices while ensuring environmental protection and deficit reduction. Nonetheless, the identified mixed effect in the long run highlights the need for sustained consolidation policies by enhancing expenditure efficiency and adopting targeted taxation measures to achieve lasting emission reductions and support the transition to cleaner energy, even when emissions are relatively low.”

On cross-country:

• EU to propose short-term rental rules to tackle ‘social crisis’ in housing. Bloc’s first affordable housing plan to cover issues such as tenants’ rights, property speculation and tourist lets – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• List prices and “hot” real estate markets – Real Estate Economics
• National Football League franchise departures and nearby home prices – Real Estate Economics
• The rise of corporate landlords: An examination of behavioral differences in the multifamily market – Real Estate Economics

On China:

• China sees better living environment, emerging new real estate model, stable construction growth in 2021-2025 – Xinhua
• China’s property managers pivot to elderly services and pet care amid real estate woes. Management firms explore new income streams as homeowners demand fee cuts amid falling property prices – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] RBA governor blames high house prices on a lack of supply, not monetary policy – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] Reserve Bank to ease LVR restrictions. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand intends to ease mortgage loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions from 1 December 2025. – Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• [New Zealand] What’s really going on with the housing market? – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] The peak of real estate madness is behind us, but there are tumultuous, complicated times ahead. Here are 10 charts to explain where we are – Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Canada Home Sales Hit ‘Bump in Road’ After Five Months of Growth – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada Existing-Home Sales Fall in September. Existing-home sales dropped 1.7% in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis – Wall Street Journal
• [Ireland] Homeowners fearful that 36pc jump in house prices will see them hit with huge Local Property Tax bill. One area has seen cost of a house shoot up by 48pc in just four year – Irish Independent
• [Korea] South Korea Unveils New Curbs to Rein in Red-Hot Housing Market – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Mexico] Situación Inmobiliaria México. Segundo semestre de 2025 – BBVA
• [Netherlands] Migrants overpaying for substandard homes face blame for Netherlands housing crisis. With general elections in two weeks, housing crisis is a big issue, with the far-right Party for Freedom blaming migrants – The Guardian
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – September 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] British homebuilder Bellway raises dividend, launches buyback after upbeat annual profit – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Why has housing delivery in London fallen so dramatically over the past decade? – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Mega-Rich Plotting Return to London, Sotheby’s Housing Boss Says – Bloomberg