The Unassuming Economist

There is further evidence that employment growth is low because output growth is poor. According to a new IMF working paper, “Much of [the cross-country differences in employment growth] are the result of the differences in real GDP growth. A scatter chart of real GDP growth and employment growth between 2008 and 2011 shows a strong correlation between the two (Figure 1). Latvia, which had the largest decline in real GDP between 2008 and 2011, also experienced one of the largest reductions in employment. And Poland, which had the largest increase in real GDP during this time period, also had one of the best employment outcomes.”  

Ball, Leigh, and Loungani also provide evidence on how well Okun’s Law has held up during the Great Recession.

In Germany, “Nationwide property prices have continued to rise, driven mainly by stronger increases in apartment prices in some major cities. However, these prices remain below historical averages and do not appear excessive.”

In France, “(…) prices have been declining: housing activity has slowed markedly and prices have fallen by 1.9 percent in 2013 Q1 from their peak in 2011 Q3,” according to the latest IMF economic report on France. To read more click here. 

“Residential real estate prices in Dubai have been rising substantially, while other market segments, especially office space, are recovering at a slower pace. The recovery in the Abu Dhabi real estate market has been lagging,” according to the latest IMF economic report on UAE. On Dubai and Abu Dhabi, it says:

• “The recovery in Dubai is largely concentrated in high-quality residential properties, helped by robust non-oil GDP growth, increasing numbers of expatriates, and Dubai’s relative stability as an investment destination. Residential real estate prices rose on average 16 percent year-on–year in April 2013. Supply growth was modest in 2012 but is expected to increase in 2013. Hotel occupancies and room prices have increased significantly because of a substantial rise in tourism. Despite a large increase in the supply of office space, a recovery in rentals started in late 2012.”

• “The recovery of the real estate market in Abu Dhabi has been lagging. Price increases in the residential market have been modest (4 percent year-on-year in April 2013). New supply of office space has remained substantial, with constant high-quality rental rates since mid-2012, while lowerquality office leases are still facing downward pressure. Retail supply could grow significantly in 2013, which could place downward pressure on rentals, which have been flat in nominal terms since 2009. Demand for hotel rooms has not kept up with supply in 2012, and significant further capacity is expected to come on stream this year.”