The Unassuming Economist

The latest update of the International Jobs Report shows that: “The global unemployment rate is expected to remain stable this year at about 5.7 percent and then decline in the coming years. The total number of people unemployed around the globe will remain at about 175 million this year. Unemployment rates are expected to decline in most advanced economies, but expected to be higher this year (compared to last year) in many emerging markets. Venezuela’s unemployment rate is expected to increase by 4 percentage points between 2016 and 2017, with smaller increases expected in Algeria, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey.”Continue reading here.

On cross-country:

• Prime Global Rental Index – Q1 2017 – Knight Frank
• EMF Quarterly Review – Q1 2017 – European Mortgage Federation
• Houses Across Time and Across Place – Centre for Economic Policy Research

On the US:

• How Exclusionary Zoning Comes at a Loss for Housing and Jobs – Foundation for Economic Education
• Moving to Opportunity: Why Breaking Family Ties Isn’t So Easy – Zillow
• Developing Inclusive Communities: Challenges and Opportunities for Mixed-Income Housing – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Community Banks Account for Nearly Half of Residential Construction Loans – Eye on Housing
• Estimating the Total U.S. Demand for Rental Housing – National Multifamily Housing Council 
• Incomes, Migration and Housing Affordability – Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

On other countries:

• The role of foreign investors in the London residential market – London School of Economics
• [United Kingdom] Low-cost housing schemes have little impact on social mobility – London School of Economics
• German Housing Prices: Boom Time Over? – Handelsblatt Global
• [Canada] B.C. throne speech acknowledges importance of housing supply on affordability – Fraser Institute
• [United Kingdom] Grenfell: the anatomy of a housing disaster – Financial Times
• Irish House Price Report Q2 2017 – Daft.ie
• Moving to a New Housing Pattern? New Trends in Housing Supply and Demand in Times of Changing. The Portuguese Case – Critical Housing Analysis
• Some Thoughts on Massive Affordable Housing Schemes under the Pressure of Commodity Housing Inventory in China’s Cities – Hubei University

An IMF working paper finds: “This paper assesses spillovers from fiscal consolidations in 10 euro area countries using an innovative empirical methodology. The analysis lends support to the existence of fiscal spillovers, with fiscal consolidation in one country reducing not only the domestic output but also the output of other member states. Spillover effects are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) for fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. Most of the impact comes from revenue measures, while the impact of expenditure measures is relatively weaker. The latter result is consistent with the distortionary effects of taxation and empirical literature on fiscal multipliers using the narrative approach (Leigh and others 2010; Abiad and others 2011).

Our results have important policy implications. They suggest that fiscal consolidations in individual euro area countries, especially the larger ones, can reduce aggregate demand in others. The magnitude of cross-country spillovers has strengthened with the economic integration and introduction of a single currency. Also, spillovers can be larger if fiscal consolidations are implemented in downturns. Therefore, individual euro area countries should consider fiscal measures implemented in other members as well as the state of the economy when implementing domestic policies.”

For previous IMF work on negative demand spillovers in the euro area, see my VoxEU blog and Larry Elliott’s column.

Figure 1. Impact on Eurozone output from wage moderation, quantitative easing and structural

“The property sector has grown rapidly, though there has been some price moderation recently and indicators do not suggest overheating. Prices have risen over the decade, in tandem with Peru’s economic expansion. In Q2 2016, the growth in median apartment prices in Lima softened compared to Q2 2015, but remained well above the 5-year average. Valuation indicators show that Peru’s property market is on an average footing compared to regional peers (…). The country also faces a housing deficit, particularly in the lower-income segments, and buying patterns do not appear speculative. Furthermore, property price indices in Peru only reflect the capital, Lima, which has a higher population growth and urbanization level than the rest of the country”, according to the IMF’s annual economic report on Peru.

On macroprudential policy:

• Stanley Fischer on Housing and Financial Stability – Federal Reserve Board
• DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference – De Nederlandsche Bank

On cross-country:

• Global House Price Index – Q1 2017 – Knight Frank
• Q1 2017: World’s housing markets poised to slow, though the boom continues strongly in Europe, Canada, and some parts of Asia – Global Property Guide
• Global developments in residential property prices – Bank for International Settlements
• Europe’s Next Housing Boom Raises Red Flags in Ex-Communist East – Bloomberg
• Relevamiento Inmobiliario de América Latina – Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
• Recent Trends and Developments in European Mortgage Markets – CEPS
• House prices and monetary policy in the euro area: evidence from structural VARs – European Central Bank
• A housing policy that could almost pay for itself? Think retrofitting – World Bank

On the US:

• Is a Bubble Brewing in the Multifamily Housing Market? – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
• The State of the Nation’s Housing 2017 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Does it matter whether those who lost their homes during the crisis come back to the housing market? – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
• Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation – University of California, Berkeley
• Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession – NBER

On other countries:

• Is Australia’s property market overheating? – The Economist
• The lessons from Canada’s attempts to curb its house-price boom – The Economist
• Czech central bank moves to rein in lending in ‘overvalued’ property market – Financial Times
• How can we dampen the build-up of housing price bubbles? – Bank of Finland
• A review of residential mortgage lending in 2016 – Central Bank of Ireland
• [New Zealand] House prices slow, and will likely keep slowing – CoreLogic
• South Korea tightens rules on housing to restrain buying frenzy in some cities – Reuters
• [Spain] Buen desempeño del mercado inmobiliario en 1T17 – BBVA