The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Roshnay R. Britz, Adefemi A. Obalade, and Anthanasius F. Tita:

“The Russia-Ukraine invasion presents one of the most trending news in 2022. Economies having solid ties with Russia are exposed to the contagion effects of the crisis. The South African economy is strongly linked to Russia via international trade and the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) alliance. This study investigates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion on daily and monthly commodity prices in South Africa for the 2015-2023 period. The study applies descriptive statistics, dummy regression model and sub-period analysis to evaluate wheat prices, oil prices and inflation rate before and during the Russia-Ukraine invasion. The descriptive analysis and regression results indicate an increase in wheat prices, oil prices and inflation rates during the post-invasion period compared to the pre-invasion period. This implies a significant impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion on these economic indicators in South Africa. Policy implications of the findings are highlighted in the concluding section.”

From a paper by Joan Crespo & Jesús Peiró-Palomino:

“This article studies the dynamics of innovation in the US Core-Based Statistical Areas over a long period (1860–2019), with the production of patents used as a proxy for innovation. The results show that innovation has always been highly concentrated, albeit with alternating periods of greater and lesser concentration. Despite the relative stability of the distribution of innovation, cities have experienced notable movements inside the distribution, which are the result of progressive long-run tendencies. Moreover, a remarkable change in the innovation landscape is found due to cities in the Northwest and Midwest gradually losing ground to cities in the South and the West. Finally, the technological specialization of cities changes rapidly, and the technological life cycle phase conditions cities’ mobility within the innovation distribution. Specialization in growing technologies helps cities to improve their relative position in the distribution, while the opposite is the case for cities that specialize in mature technologies.”

From a paper by Mohamed Ben Omar Ndiaye, Ebrima K Ceesay, and Yahaya M Moussa:

“In the theoretical literature, the relationship between primary producer commodity prices and economic change has been confirmed. Therefore, this paper examines sub-Saharan African countries’ experiences pertaining to commodity price variation. The main purpose of this article is to examine the impact of commodity price instability in sub-Saharan Africa. To do so, panel data models are used to solve the problems of unobserved variables. The results reveal that the current growth of commodity prices has a positive effect on the growth of the economy. However, the logs of the lags and logs of the leads of the commodity price have negative impacts on the growth of the economy. That means that commodity price variations will continue to harm the economies of sub-Saharan African countries.”

From a paper by Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme:

“The question of the implication of the macroeconomic policy environment for welfare may be an empirical one, and the answer may well differ amongst economies. In this paper, we evaluate the role of monetary policy toward inclusive growth. The evidence from a large sample of countries shows that in both the short and long terms, low inflation and stable economic growth are associated with lower income inequality, improved well-being of the poor and greater inclusion. Both short-term and long-run effects are statistically significant and show that monetary policy that aims at low inflation and stable economic growth is most likely to improve permanently growth inclusiveness and the conditions of the poor. However, in advanced economies where inflation rates are considerably lower, disinflation hurts the poor and equity, ignites greater unemployment cost, and worsens growth inclusiveness. In any case, price and output stability is necessary for greater growth inclusiveness. Thus, the twin objectives of macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth offer no trade-offs.”

On cross-country:

• House prices in Europe reactivate with the shift in monetary policy – CaixaBank

Working papers and conferences:

• Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments – NBER
• Growth and Fluctuations Economies with Land Speculation – NBER
• Sewers and Urbanization in the Developing World – NBER
• Forecasting House Price Growth Using Months Supply of Housing – Richmond Fed

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index—February 2025 – AEI
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Home-Price Accelerated in January, but Mortgage Rates Still Weighed. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 4.1% on year in January, higher than the 4.0% rise in December – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Climb 4.1% in January – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s market: Zillow’s analysis for over 250 housing markets. Here are the top metro areas where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s most recent analysis. – Fast Company
• New Construction Is Changing American Cities. The median year that homes were built has risen, largely due to population growth and the need to house a migrating population. – New York Times
• Volume of Residential Construction Loans Falls in Q4 2024 – NAHB
• ‘Challenging’ Housing Market Is Squeezing Homebuilder Profit Margins, Top Construction Company Warns – Realtor.com
• Why the Supply of Homes for Sale is Increasing – Arizona Real Estate Notebook
• Spec Homes Sitting on the Market Pose Potential Economic Drag. Builders might pull back on new housing construction as they try to clear their backlog. – Bloomberg
• Blue states don’t build. Red states do. A timely repost, with some updates. – Noahpinion
• Slight Decline in Rates Helps New Home Sales to Edge Higher in February – NAHB
• New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February. Average New Home Price is Down 10% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk 
• New-Home Sales Picked Up in February, Driven by Affordable Inventory – Realtor.com
• This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market. The Northeast has tons of demand and low supply, but parts of the Sunbelt are seeing a flood of houses for sale – Wall Street Journal
• Lennar: “Didn’t see typical seasonal pickup after February” – Calculated Risk
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales – Calculated Risk
• Trump’s Housing Chief Embarks on Shake-Up at Mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Administration has discussed privatizing the two firms – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• Fifty Shades of Growth. Birth and death rates are quietly determining tomorrow’s real estate hotspots – Home Economics
• Homeownership Has Always Impacted American Democracy – Time
• Home-Ownership Remains Financial Stretch Around U.S. as Prices Remain Near Record High – ATTOM
• Understanding office-to-residential conversion – Brookings
• America’s housing affordability crisis and the decline of housing supply – Brookings
• Trump Moves Forward With Plans To Use Federal Land To Build Affordable Housing – Realtor.com
• Housing Roadblocks: Paving a New Way to Address Affordability – AEI
• Lower Mortgage Rates, Better Affordability – NAHB
• Gen Z and Millennial Homeownership Rates Flatlined in 2024 As Housing Costs Soared – Realtor.com
• Why Gen Z buyers are looking beyond Seattle – Axios
• Homesteading 2.0: A Proposal to Make Housing Affordable Again – AEI
• They Bought and Sold Homes During Covid. Was It Worth It? For many, the pandemic gave them the push they needed to make a major life change – Wall Street Journal
• Lawsuit Challenges Use of Eminent Domain as NIMBY Tool to Block Housing Project. A Rhode Island town seeks to use eminent domain to block construction of a large-scale affordable housing project. – Reason
• Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook – Calculated Risk
• Dos and Don’ts – March Edition. Good and bad moves on zoning, ADUs, public space, taxes and more – The New Urban Order
• Why the economy isn’t working, revisited – Erdman Housing Tracker
• How the pandemic transformed Nashville’s housing market – Axios
• Five Ways Residential Mobility Has Changed in the Pandemic Era – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Americans Are Losing Faith in Trump’s Ability To Fix the Housing Market—With 70% Fearing an Impending Crash – Realtor.com

On China:

• Chinese developer Sunac unveils unprecedented 2nd restructuring. Move by mainland property giant highlights continuing debt problems in depressed sector – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Trade war not good for interest rates or home buyers: Cotality – Financial Review
• [Australia] Where coastal property prices are hot – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Germany] GREIX annual analysis 2024: Slight price decline in all housing segments – KIEL
• [Germany] German home prices halt decline in fourth quarter but outlook uncertain – Reuters
• [Germany] Germany’s latest fiscal reform poses obstacles for the housing market’s recovery. By the end of 2024, German house prices were around 11% below their peak in the second quarter of 2022. Looking ahead, the recent increase in bond yields is expected to slow the housing market’s recovery – ING
• [Kuwait] Kuwait Is Set to Allow Banks to Offer Mortgages for the First Time – Bloomberg
• [India] India Home Sales Drop 23% as High Prices, Buyer Caution Weigh – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Property inflation hits eight-year high as typical asking price for home hits €346,000. Median asking price in Dublin is now €460,726. Chronically short supply is hampering buyers and pushing up prices – Irish Independent
• [Nigeria] Nigeria Set to Create $654 Million Fund to Provide Home Loans – Bloomberg
• [Spain] The real estate boom spreads across Spain – CaixaBank
• [Spain] The expansive cycle takes hold. The shortage of housing supply in a context of strong demand will remain one of the main challenges of Spain’s real estate market in 2025, although it is not among the most overvalued markets in the European Union. – CaixaBank 
• [United Kingdom] Cambridge yimbies. The home of Harvard and MIT embraces yimby-ism – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] House affordability in England and Wales returns to pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth has outstripped property price rises, official figures show – FT
• [United Kingdom] London House Prices Become Cheaper But Are Still Unaffordable – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Reeves to put £2bn into affordable housing to ‘sweeten the pill’ of cuts. Chancellor will announce plans to fund 18,000 social homes before fraught spring statement on Wednesday – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump by most in two years, ONS says – Reuters