The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose:

“The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.”

From a paper by Gerald Auten, and David Splinter:

“Auten and Splinter (2024) estimated national income inequality using tax data. This paper extends our estimates to cover the years 2020–2022. During the pandemic, fiscal relief offset all the increase in distribution-wide inequality and most of the increase in top 1% income shares. Once pandemic-era relief ended in 2022, however, after-tax income inequality increased. In addition, this paper incorporates several improved methods and uses recently revised national accounts data. Collectively, these updates have only modest effects on top income shares. Finally, sensitivity tests show a narrow range around our baseline top income shares. Top income shares declined in the late 1960s and increased in the late 1980s and 1990s with little net change. From 1962 to 2019, top 1% after-tax income shares increased only up to one percentage point. Since 2019, both pre-tax and after-tax top 1% shares increased another percentage point.”

From a paper by Alberto Botta, Danilo Spinola , Giuliano Yajima, and Gabriel Porcile:

“This paper studies the relationship between financial integration, external debt sustainability and fiscal balance in emerging and developing economies (EDEs). We do so by applying Pasinetti’s ‘geometry of debt sustainability’ to EDEs and analysing how it is shaped by exposure to global financial cycles. Through the lenses of Pasinetti’s theoretical framework, we study whether global finance opens ‘windows of opportunities’ or creates more constraints for EDEs in offering fiscal support for structural change, including green structural transformations. We suggest EDEs may face a ‘gridlock’. Global finance and pressures to keep external debt sustainable make them struggle to maintain vital public investment and enact counter-cyclical fiscal actions. This, in turn, exacerbates technological backwardness, which feeds back in the form of more binding external constraints and tighter ‘surveillance’ by international creditors. We support our theoretical analysis with an econometric study over a sample of 55 countries from 1980 to 2018. Capital controls and external macroprudential policy emerge as fundamental policies enabling EDEs to adeptly manoeuvre through debt challenges without falling into the pitfalls of stagnation and enduring technological underdevelopment.”

From a paper by Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel; Porras-Arena, Sylvina:

“This study analyses the relationship between unemployment and economic growth at the
international level, addressing the nature and decomposition of the Okun coefficient. Using World
Bank data from 173 countries between 1991 and 2019, econometric techniques including
decompositions and spatial dependence analysis are applied. First, the validity of Okun’s law is
confirmed, noting the heterogeneity of the coefficient across countries, suggesting the need for
context-specific approaches to improve labour dynamics. Second, the evidence underlines the
importance of labour productivity over labour supply as a key determinant of the unemploymentoutput relationship. Finally, the identification of spatial patterns highlights the interdependence
between neighbouring economies, justifying coordinated strategies at the regional level to boost
employment. These results provide valuable guidelines for the design of more effective public
policies, adapted to the productive and labour realities of each country and capable of exploiting
of the synergies arising from economic integration.”

On cross-country:

• House prices and rents went up in Q4 2024 – Eurostat
• When investors move in: new dynamics in European housing markets – ECB
• Public Housing Is the Only Cure for Europe’s Housing Crisis. Throughout Europe, states have spent decades running down the structures of public investment and planning that once made housing accessible for working-class people. A recharged model of public housing is essential to address the resulting crisis. – Jacobin

Working papers and conferences:

• Asylum Seekers and the Rise in Homelessness – NBER
• Sorting to Expensive Cities – NBER
• Revisiting housing asset pricing: uncertainty and business-cycle factors in US state-level housing markets – IDEAS
• Affordable housing, unaffordable credit? Concentration and high-cost lending for manufactured homes – BIS
• Homeowners care about inflation, renters less so – VoxEU
• Call for papers: PSE 2025 Conference – Housing affordability: what is new? – Institute of Public Finance

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Election 2025: Evaluating the housing policies – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] Market chaos threatens housing recovery: analysts – Financial Review
• [Australia] A grab bag of campaign housing policies. But will they fix the affordability crisis beyond the election? – The Conversation
• [Australia] Australia’s median home value has increased by about $230,000 in past five years, data shows. House prices have jumped 39.1% in the five years to March largely due to demand-supply imbalances, CoreLogic says – The Guardian
• [Australia] Housing affordability is a problem for Australian foreign policy. A massive mortgage reduces our willingness to take risks, and that can include anything from travel to investing overseas. – Lowy Institute

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina’s zombie mortgage market is coming back to life – Reuters
• [Canada] Assessing the British Columbia Government’s Initiatives to Make Housing More Affordable – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] ‘Deeply disappointed’: Ontario ministers warn of rising housing costs in U.S. due to softwood lumber duties – Bloomberg
• [Germany] House prices in city centers fall more sharply than in other neighborhoods – KIEL
• [Ireland] House prices in Ireland continue to rise as shortage drives demand higher. Sherry FitzGerald says second-hand home prices rose 2.3% between January and March – The Irish Times
• [Mauritius] Mauritius (National) Property Price Index: Houses and Apartments – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Improving housing Crisis del alquiler en Europa: las grandes ciudades españolas lideran las subidas de los precios de habitaciones y estudios. La crisis de los alquileres se ha extendido por toda Europa pero en ningún lugar los precios suben tanto como en grandes ciudades españolas como Madrid, Barcelona o Valencia – El Mundo
• [Spain] Spain tackles housing ‘social emergency’ as rents double in a decade – BBC
• [Spain] Thousands in Spain join nationwide march to protest against housing crisis. Organisers say 150,000 joined protest in Madrid urging the government to ‘end the housing racket’ and to demand access to affordable housing – The Guardian
• [Spain] US buyers pay highest prices to snap up Spanish property – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Should young people raid their pensions to buy a property? Allowing Gen Z early access to retirement savings is not going to build more houses – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgages: warning over big fees as homebuying season arrives. The sums lenders charge to secure the best rates have risen in the past five years – and can make a loan much more expensive – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] How looser affordability rules may widen home ownership in the UK. Mortgage lenders encouraged by regulator to loosen affordability tests so would-be homebuyers can borrow more – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage payment shock adds to strain on UK consumers. Rate increase comes at a time when borrowers are already having to tighten their belts – FT
• [United Kingdom] ‘Completely disproportionate’: UK tenants feel the bite of ‘pet rent’. Many pet-owning renters are asked to pay surcharges – but the upcoming renters reform bill will require landlords to reconsider their stance – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall as market feels tax break hangover – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices slide after rush to beat stamp duty changes. Average price fell by 0.5% in March to £296,699, the steepest decline since March last year, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall unexpectedly in March. The 0.5% contraction according to Halifax contrasts with economists’ bets of a 0.1% rise – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Risks Being Derailed by Trade War, RICS Says – Bloomberg