The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Naveen Kumar & Dibyendu Maiti:

“This paper examines the understudied relationship between anthropogenic global warming and wealth inequality, two defining challenges of the twenty-first century, by focusing on the impact of temperature on subnational wealth inequality across 1000 regions worldwide, using data from the Global Data Lab spanning the period from 1992 to 2021. Building on earlier climate-economy studies, this paper estimates heterogeneous parameter models under a common factor framework, which addresses econometric challenges of heterogeneous slopes, cross-sectional spillover, unobserved common factors, and explicitly allows the temperature effect on wealth to differ across subnational regions. Our preferred specification estimates provide suggestive evidence that a 1 C rise in temperature is associated with a modest increase in wealth inequality, measured by Gini coefficients, approximately 0.54 units. The effect of precipitation on wealth inequality remains unclear. Second, the results suggest that poorer and hotter regions, predominantly located in the Global South, are adversely affected by temperature-induced wealth inequality. Third, we empirically identify two key plausible channels among others through which temperature worsens wealth inequality: (i) health and education-induced reduction in labor productivity, (ii) worsening gender equality. Our findings are consistently robust across alternative specifications, datasets, and estimation strategies. The evidence suggests that climate change will significantly shape the trajectory of future global inequality and poses serious challenges for sustainable development under business as usual emission scenarios.”

On cross-country:

• EU finally takes ownership of housing crisis. The pressure is now on Brussels to adopt real measures — or risk pushing more voters into the arms of the far right. – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

• Is There a Puzzle in Underwater Mortgage Default? – Cleveland Fed
• Precision Without Labels Detecting Cross-Applicants in Mortgage Data Using Unsupervised Learning – Philadelphia Fed 
• The Social and Individual Effects of Homeless Shelter: Evidence from Temporary Shelter Provision – NBER

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australian house prices rising at fastest rate in nearly four years, data shows. Brisbane overtakes Canberra as second-most expensive house market, after Sydney, with median prices rising by nearly $40,000 – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Aruba] Aruba’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Bahamas] The Bahamas Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Housing Market Monitor – National Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Canada: Home prices continue their moderate growth in September – National Bank of Canada
• [Cayman Islands] Cayman’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Prime Scotland House Prices – Q3 2025 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Prime London house prices – Q3 2025 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Housing market slows amid fears Reeves will increase property taxes. Post-summer bounce in activity fails to materialise as buyers and sellers, in the south especially, opt to ‘wait and see’ – The Guardian

From a paper by William Gale, Ian Berlin, and Sam Thorpe:

“How should the U.S. respond to its unsustainable fiscal outlook? How and when a country should fiscally consolidate depends on its existing circumstances, policies, and institutions. We review the experiences of other countries that attempted consolidations and highlight lessons applicable to the U.S. We find that (a) the U.S. does not face a short-term crisis, so it can employ gradual adjustments, which may minimize short-term harm, (b) consolidation should occur in a strong economy with monetary accommodation, and (c) tax increases (spending cuts) could plausibly play a larger (smaller) role in US consolidations than in European adjustments.”

From a paper by Michalis Nikiforos, Vlassis Missos, Christos Pierros, and Nikolaos Rodousakis:

“This paper investigates the structural transformation of the Greek economy over the past fifteen
years, focusing on the increasing dominance of the Accommodation and Food Service Activities
(AFSA) sector in the aftermath of austerity and structural reforms. Despite promises of productivity
gains through labor market and product market reforms, the Greek economy has experienced a sharp
decline in labor productivity and a significant reallocation of employment towards low-productivity
sectors, especially AFSA, reminiscent of a Lewis-type dual sector economy. Using a simple Panel-VAR
model we find that declining aggregate demand and real wages were key drivers of this productivity
collapse. Our findings support theories of technological change that emphasize output growth and
the cost of labor as fundamental determinants of productivity growth.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Home Prices: Sept Update – Home Economics
• Zillow upgrades its outlook—here’s its home price forecast for more than 400 housing markets. Zillow slightly upgrades its national home price outlook—predicting that over the next 12 months, U.S. home prices are likely to rise 1.9%. – Fast Company
• The cities where home prices have changed the most (and least) over the past 130 years. Did your grandparents and great-grandparents really pay less for their homes than you did, even after inflation? The Department of Data might have the answer. – Washington Post
• Zohran Mamdani’s Socialist Housing Plan Could Crash New York’s Rickety Rental Market. The city has the nation’s most regulated housing sector and the largest stock of government-owned and subsidized housing, and yet progressives blame its real estate troubles on the free market. – Reason

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Non-Conventional Financing for New Home Sales Loses Ground in 2024 – NAHB
• California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September – Calculated Risk
• Median Age of Construction Labor Force Holds at 42 – NAHB
• Where are Porches Most Common for Newly-Built Homes? – NAHB
• The Outlook for US Housing Supply and Affordability – Goldman Sachs

On other developments:    

• Housing Market Stalls as Government Shutdown Drags On – Realtor.com
• Judge Blocks Federal Layoffs During Shutdown, Including Deep Cuts at HUD’s Fair Housing Office – Realtor.com
• New Housing Options Emerge for Older Americans. As people live longer, they are reimagining where and how they want to live – Wall Street Journal
• Is It Bad to Buy Into a Gentrified Neighborhood? I can finally afford to live in the area I once only dreamed of calling home. But I’m torn. – New York Times
• We Found a Solution to Homelessness. Now the Trump Administration Wants to Throw It Out. – New York Times
• September 2025 Rental Report: Rental Affordability Improved Compared to a Year Ago – Realtor.com
• My Generation: Blame the Rich, Not the Boomers – CEPR
• California’s Housing Market Amid Shutdown: 5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• A real estate boom is coming — are you ready? – The Hill
• How COVID-19 Reshaped the U.S. Labor Market and Housing Demand – NAHB
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Are You Paying More Than 30% of Income on Housing Costs? Recent census data shows that owning a home that is considered affordable is impossible in some areas. – New York Times