The Unassuming Economist

A list of papers that study the economic effects of rent control

1. Housing market spillovers: Evidence from the end of rent control in Cambridge, Massachusetts – Autor, Palmer, and Pathak (2014)
2. The effects of rent control expansion on tenants, landlords, and inequality: Evidence from San Francisco – Diamond, McQuade, and Qian (2018)
3. Robbing Peter to pay Paul? The redistribution of wealth caused by rent control – Ahern and Giacoletti (2022)
4. Rent control effects through the lens of empirical research: An almost complete review of the literature – Kholodilin (2024)

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

Cross Country

• Canada’s Housing Market Starts to Strengthen After Rate Cut – Bloomberg
• Canada real estate: Home prices continue to rise despite slumping sales, says Royal LePage – Yahoo Finance
• Are We in a Housing Bubble in 2024? – Norada Real Estate Investments
• The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Europe: Biggest Price Drops in Germany, Finland, Sweden, Austria, France, Denmark – Wolf Street
• Vietnam’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide

US

• Better news on housing construction plus a methodological improvement pushes up the forecast – The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
• A Discussion of the Housing Market with Lance Lambert (ResiClub) – CalculatedRisk Newsletter
• Home Insurance Rates in America Are Wildly Distorted. Here’s Why – New York Times
• NAHB Urges Congress to Address Housing Affordability Crisis – NAHB
• Rate cuts won’t fix housing affordability, economist says – Yahoo Finance
• Florida is bucking the national housing trend, real estate firm says – Fox Business
• America’s most livable small cities revealed, with locals loving their reasonable housing costs, plentiful jobs and great amenities – Daily Mail
• Could policies solve US housing affordability crisis? – MPA Mag

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

Cross Country

• Investment in UK student housing climbs 245 per cent to record high – Yahoo Finance
• Germany’s Urban Housing Recession Is Coming to an End – Bloomberg
• House prices and rents rose between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 – Eurostat
• Hong Kong’s talent pass program drives up housing rents – Nikkei Asia
• China’s property bust won’t be fixed without the intervention of the state – East Asia Forum

US

• The Geography of Housing Affordability – Aziz Sunderji
• Six Lessons from Six Months of Thesis-Driven Courses – Paul Stanton and Brad Hargreaves
• When will the housing market crash again? – Yahoo Finance
• These Fast-Growing Florida And Texas Cities Have 2024’s Slowest Housing Markets—Here’s Why – Forbes
• Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again? – Forbes
• Current mortgage rates as of July 4, 2024 – Fortune
• Want to buy or sell a home? How to get a 3% mortgage rate, negotiate fees, and more – USA Today
• Real Estate Experts Say These Will Be the Best US Cities To Buy Property in the Next 5 Years – Yahoo Finance
• Housing Market Entering ‘Crash Stage’ in Multiple Cities – Newsweek
• These 15 housing markets have the highest correction risks – Fox News

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

On Cross-Country

• Why house prices are surging once again – The Economist.
• Ottawa housing market ranked as ‘severely unaffordable’ in global survey – CTV News

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• House Prices In Pandemic-Era Boom Towns Are Going Bust As Prices Fall – Yahoo Finance
• You Might Be Buying Your House at the Top of the Market – WSJ
• FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in April; Up 6.3 Percent from Last Year – FHFA
• Texas House Prices Fall in Multiple Cities – Newsweek
• California House Prices Plunge Up to $400k as Insurance Crisis Deepens – Newsweek
• US consumer confidence retreats slightly; house prices remain elevated – Yahoo Finance
• Mortgage rates fall slightly to 6.86% – FoxBusiness
• Mortgage rates just dropped to a 2-month low. Here’s why you may want to buy now – CBS News
• Here’s where U.S. rents are rising — and falling — the fastest – CNBC
• Strain of rent on wages in WA is among highest in U.S., report finds – Washington State Standard
• Rents Surged in These U.S. Cities in June – Mansion Global
• MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, MAY 2024 – US Census

On China:

• China’s big housing correction is not over – FT
• China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek
• China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus – WSJ
• China Home-Price Slump Accelerates Despite More Stimulus – Bloomberg
• China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters

On cross-country:

• Why house prices are surging once again. In America, Australia and parts of Europe, property markets have shrugged off higher interest rates – The Economist
• European Residential Update – Knight Frank
• These cities are now so expensive they’re considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’ – CNN

Working papers and conferences:

• The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006 – Philadelphia Fed
• Rent Guarantee Insurance – NBER
• Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-Covid Boom – NBER
• Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data – NBER
• A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation – Boston Fed
• Paying Too Much? Borrower Sophistication and Overpayment in the U.S. Mortgage Market – Philadelphia Fed
• Affordable home ownership can lead to stronger relationships – VoxEU
• Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-COVID Boom – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Rent Hikes Loom, Posing Threat to Inflation Fight. Rents in several Northeast, Midwest cities are rising this year; Fed chair calls housing situation complicated – Wall Street Journal
• The U.S. is now short 4.5 million homes as the housing deficit grows – Zillow
• High Mortgage Rates Act as a Drag on Builder Confidence – NAHB
• Secret #30 – Mortgages Are Phenomenally Riskier Today Than When the U.S. Home Ownership Rate Increased the Fastest – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #33 – Easier Mortgages Easily Turn Into Higher House Prices – Real Estate Decoded
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in May; California Home Sales Down 6% YoY in May – Calculated Risk
• The federal government’s new plan to (maybe) give renters straight cash. A bold experiment to help tenants is advancing. – Vox
• When will housing prices drop? – Yahoo Finance
• Cities with empty commercial space and housing shortages are converting office buildings into apartments – here’s what they’re learning – The Conversation  
• 87% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• Secret #31 – All Those Decades of “Affordable” Mortgages Didn’t Increase Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #32 – “Affordable” Mortgages are Affordable for the Government – Real Estate Decoded
• Housing Starts Retreat in May – NAHB
• Home Flipping Activity and Profits Both Rise Across U.S. in First Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period – Calculated Risk
• The Week in Review. Week of June 10 — taking stock of home price changes – Home Economics
• Residential Building Material Prices Remain Relatively Unchanged in May – NAHB
• Housing costs are clouding an otherwise glowing economy – CNN
• The Divisive Housing Perk Adding Thousands of Dollars to Lawmaker Pay. Some in Congress turn down the allowance for fear of a political backlash – Wall Street Journal
• Is U.S. Housing Becoming (A Little) More Affordable? – S&P Global
• Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Least At-Risk of Declines in Q1 2024 – ATTOM
• ‘The most challenging home buying market we’ve ever seen’ – Politico
• The Connections Between Rental Deserts, Segregation, and Restrictive Zoning – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Amazon Promised to Deliver Affordable Housing. How’s It Doing? As the tech giant adds $1.4 billion to its Housing Equity Fund, developers and advocates in Seattle, Nashville and DC reflect on the company’s local impact. – Bloomberg
• ‘I Live in Hell’: Anti-Growth Fervor Grips US South After Pandemic Boom. Local groups are pushing for restrictions on new developments, saying an influx of residents has strained resources. – Bloomberg

On China:

• China Property Drag Is Getting Worse, Factory Output Disappoints. Industry expansion lost momentum in May as tariff threats loom. Retail spending picked up but remains weak by past standards – Bloomberg
• China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed – Bloomberg   
• Early repayments shrink China’s mortgage-backed securities market by 65%. Property owners rush to pay down debts or refinance at lower rates in absence of other investment options – FT
• China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters
• China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus. Home prices declined at a faster pace in May in major cities, while other data show a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy – Wall Street Journal
• China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek  
• China new home prices drop at fastest rate in nearly a decade. Property glut holds down prices despite government attempts to revive market – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Unpacking multi-speed conditions in Australia’s housing markets – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Australia’s NSW State to Increase Duties on Foreign Home Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Vancouver housing is ‘impossibly unaffordable,’ says new report. Vancouver has been the first, second or third least affordable major market for each of the last 16 years – Vancouver Sun
• [Canada] Canada Housing Starts Hit Highest Level in Seven Months – Bloomberg
• [Dominican Republic] The Dominican Republic’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [France] France’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] What investors should learn from a Berlin housing saga. Corporate boards might be surprised by some of the ideas floating around on Europe’s left-leaning political wing – FT
• [Ireland] Irish house prices now 10% above their boom-time peak. Latest official barometer indicates house prices rose an average rate of 7.9 per cent in the 12 months to April this year – The Irish Times
• [New Zealand] House prices continue to fall, with Auckland’s dropping the most – RNZ
• [Portugal] The Mayor Who Sees Airbnb as an Agent for Good. In Portugal’s second-largest city, officials are banning new short-term units in busy areas while allowing them as a basis for urban regeneration in neglected quarters. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Housing demand wanes as buyers bank on rate cut – BBC
• [United Kingdom] Does it make more sense to buy or rent a property in the UK? On average, buying a home with a capital and interest mortgage is 11 per cent more expensive than renting – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices remain near record high with little sign of election impact. Rightmove says demand from buyers up 5% with caution detected only among would-be sellers at top of market – The Guardian