Friday, February 28, 2025
On cross-country:
Working papers and conferences:
On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
On the US—other developments:
On China:
On Australia and New Zealand:
On other countries:
On cross-country:
Working papers and conferences:
On the US—developments on house prices,
Posted by 5:00 AM
atLabels: Global Housing Watch
Thursday, February 27, 2025
From a paper by Joshua Aizenman:
“A growing share of emerging markets (EMs) uses hybrid versions of inflation targeting that differ from the IT regimes of the OECD countries. Real exchange rate and international reserve changes affect the policy interest rates in commodity countries, aiming to stabilize their real exchange rate in the presence of volatile terms of trade and heightened exposure to capital inflow/outflow shocks. Inflation targeting works well with independent central banks, yet fiscal dominance concerns may hinder the efficacy and independency of central banks. This suggests experimenting with the integration of monetary rules and fiscal rules, possibly linking these rules with the operations of buffers like international reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The global financial crisis validated the benefits of countercyclical management of international reserves and SWFs in reducing the volatility of real exchange rates. Macroprudential policies may complement or even substitute buffer policies by reducing a country’s balance sheet exposure to foreign currency debt, mitigating the risk of costly sudden stops and capital flight. A growing share of EMs is experiencing exposure to new financial technologies (fintech), providing cheaper and faster financial services and extending financial coverage to previously under-served populations. Deeper fintech diffusion may redirect financial intermediation from regulated banks to emerging fintech shadow banks, some of which may have a global reach. These developments, and the diffusion of cryptocurrencies promising anonymized payment systems, may hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy and eventually induce greater financial instability. States may encourage the diffusion of efficient financial intermediation in ways that benefit users while restricting the use of anonymized exchange and global monies to reduce the threat of a shrinking tax base and to maintain financial stability.”
From a paper by Joshua Aizenman:
“A growing share of emerging markets (EMs) uses hybrid versions of inflation targeting that differ from the IT regimes of the OECD countries. Real exchange rate and international reserve changes affect the policy interest rates in commodity countries, aiming to stabilize their real exchange rate in the presence of volatile terms of trade and heightened exposure to capital inflow/outflow shocks. Inflation targeting works well with independent central banks,
Posted by 10:50 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
From a paper by Angela Okeke, and Constantinos Alexiou:
“This paper examines the relationship between public debt levels and income inequality during periods of fiscal consolidation (austerity). Specifically, it investigates two key questions: (a) whether high public debt during fiscal adjustments exacerbates income inequality, and (b) whether the composition of these adjustments influences the debt–inequality link. To address these issues, we apply a panel threshold methodology using annual data from 16 OECD countries over the period 1980–2019. Our findings reveal that public debt significantly affects income inequality, with the impact intensifying during fiscal adjustments, particularly at moderate debt thresholds (30–60%). Furthermore, when comparing the effects of tax-based versus spending-based adjustments, the evidence shows that tax-based consolidations tend to produce more persistent negative effects on income inequality.”
From a paper by Angela Okeke, and Constantinos Alexiou:
“This paper examines the relationship between public debt levels and income inequality during periods of fiscal consolidation (austerity). Specifically, it investigates two key questions: (a) whether high public debt during fiscal adjustments exacerbates income inequality, and (b) whether the composition of these adjustments influences the debt–inequality link. To address these issues, we apply a panel threshold methodology using annual data from 16 OECD countries over the period 1980–2019.
Posted by 10:48 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
Wednesday, February 26, 2025
From a book review by Barry Eichengreen:
“Collier contemplates the fate of left-behind places, such as South Yorkshire in the United Kingdom, devastated by the loss of its steel industry, and the Colombian city of Barranquilla, whose entrepot trade evaporated when its estuary silted up. In these cases and others, he blames centralized decision-making and blind faith in the market for failing to stem persistent decline. But he also highlights exceptions to the rule: left-behind places that rose from economic ruins. Examples include formerly depressed but now vibrant cities, such as Pittsburgh, and once stagnant but now relatively successful developing countries, such as Bangladesh and Rwanda. Keys to economic rejuvenation in these left-behind places are the devolution of decision-making powers to local and regional authorities, as well as having sufficient financial resources to implement the resulting bottom-up decisions. Collier reserves his harshest criticism for his own country, the United Kingdom, which has been singularly unsuccessful in lifting up neglected cities and regions.”
From a book review by Barry Eichengreen:
“Collier contemplates the fate of left-behind places, such as South Yorkshire in the United Kingdom, devastated by the loss of its steel industry, and the Colombian city of Barranquilla, whose entrepot trade evaporated when its estuary silted up. In these cases and others, he blames centralized decision-making and blind faith in the market for failing to stem persistent decline. But he also highlights exceptions to the rule: left-behind places that rose from economic ruins.
Posted by 8:35 AM
atLabels: Global Housing Watch
From a book review by Barry Eichengreen:
“Lawrence considers how government can create high-paying manufacturing jobs, a common goal of the Biden and Trump administrations. In seeking to increase the share of manufacturing in total employment, U.S. policy is pushing against the tide. Although the country’s manufacturing output continues to expand, manufacturing employment does not, reflecting mechanization and other factors that have boosted output per worker. Trade similarly limits manufacturing employment in the United States and other advanced economies since low-income countries have a comparative advantage in manufacturing activities that use semiskilled labor. Advanced countries are more likely to hold on to manufacturing jobs involving specialized tasks, but since these require skilled labor, policies promoting them have the perverse effect of widening income inequality. Lawrence concludes that although industrial policies might aid certain workers and specific U.S. states, they are unlikely to benefit American workers overall. To address low pay and worker displacement, he recommends expanding trade adjustment assistance to workers in declining industries, retraining workers to fill high-wage service-sector jobs, providing federal wage insurance that compensates displaced workers for income losses, and creating a better-targeted tax and transfer system.”
From a book review by Barry Eichengreen:
“Lawrence considers how government can create high-paying manufacturing jobs, a common goal of the Biden and Trump administrations. In seeking to increase the share of manufacturing in total employment, U.S. policy is pushing against the tide. Although the country’s manufacturing output continues to expand, manufacturing employment does not, reflecting mechanization and other factors that have boosted output per worker. Trade similarly limits manufacturing employment in the United States and other advanced economies since low-income countries have a comparative advantage in manufacturing activities that use semiskilled labor.
Posted by 8:34 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
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