Friday, May 30, 2025
From a paper by Suale Karimu, and Attahir B. Abubakar:
“Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced significant structural change and economic growth in recent decades; however, inequality levels remain high, raising concerns that the growth is not inclusive enough to reduce inequality levels. This study explores the effect of economic growth and structural change on income inequality using a panel dataset of 40 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2001–2015. The study employs the iterated Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator for analysis. The findings suggest that although increased income levels in the region fuel inequality, the transition of the economies towards the services sector could reduce income inequality. However, the overall contribution of structural change to reducing inequality levels has been minimal suggesting that the growth experiences of the region, especially over the last two decades, may not have been inclusive; hence, the need for enhanced redistributive policies to deepen inclusivity of the growth process.”
From a paper by Suale Karimu, and Attahir B. Abubakar:
“Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced significant structural change and economic growth in recent decades; however, inequality levels remain high, raising concerns that the growth is not inclusive enough to reduce inequality levels. This study explores the effect of economic growth and structural change on income inequality using a panel dataset of 40 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2001–2015. The study employs the iterated Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator for analysis.
Posted by 8:30 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
On prices, rent, and mortgage:
On sales, permits, starts, and supply:
On other developments:
On prices, rent, and mortgage:
Posted by 5:00 AM
atLabels: Global Housing Watch
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
From a paper by Jassim Aladwani:
“Using standard GARCH-type, Markov Switching GARCH-type, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this study employs quarterly dataset from 1995 to 2023 to investigate the volatility shifts of macroeconomic variables, incorporating crude oil prices in Spain. The empirical results of the study clearly confirm that MSGARCH-type models extend beyond the capabilities of standard GARCH-type models, providing enhanced flexibility in modeling the volatility process. The estimated MSGARCH-type models effectively identify breakpoints in all macroeconomic variables volatilities, specifically during significant events such as the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, the European debt crisis in 2011, and the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. In addition, our results indicate that high crude oil price shocks during the global events are important drivers of uncertainty. There is strong evidence that the effects of crude oil price shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty are highly dependent on the prevailing regime. These impacts vary based on investor sentiment and the level of perceived volatility within financial markets. The responses of economic uncertainty to crude oil shocks appear to experience a dramatic change in the major global events, such as the post-global financial crisis (GFC), COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukrainian war.”
From a paper by Jassim Aladwani:
“Using standard GARCH-type, Markov Switching GARCH-type, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this study employs quarterly dataset from 1995 to 2023 to investigate the volatility shifts of macroeconomic variables, incorporating crude oil prices in Spain. The empirical results of the study clearly confirm that MSGARCH-type models extend beyond the capabilities of standard GARCH-type models, providing enhanced flexibility in modeling the volatility process. The estimated MSGARCH-type models effectively identify breakpoints in all macroeconomic variables volatilities,
Posted by 10:38 AM
atLabels: Energy & Climate Change
From a paper by Marko Senekovič, and Jani Bekő:
“There is a lack of research concerning the influence of economic inequality on the size of fiscal multipliers. To address this, we apply a VAR methodological framework to assess the magnitude of fiscal multipliers for 47 economies, using a new quarterly dataset spanning the period from 1995 to 2021. We then gauge the impact of the battery of income and wealth inequality measures on the size of government consumption multipliers. To ensure the robustness of the results, a yearly panel data sample was also tested. The key findings of our empirical exercise can be outlined as follows. First, the estimated government consumption multipliers exhibit a generally positive trajectory throughout the forecast horizon in approximately 66% of the countries analysed, while in 19% of the sample, they remain largely negative, and in the remaining 15% of cases, they display a mixed pattern, being positive only during certain periods. Second, in 53% of the countries examined, the fiscal multiplier exceeds the threshold of one at least once during the forecast period, suggesting a greater output effect of fiscal expansion in these countries. Third, the more pronounced the income and wealth inequality in a country, the higher the value of the fiscal multiplier. This research outcome supports the proposition that higher economic inequality, especially income inequality, will generate greater government spending effects.”
From a paper by Marko Senekovič, and Jani Bekő:
“There is a lack of research concerning the influence of economic inequality on the size of fiscal multipliers. To address this, we apply a VAR methodological framework to assess the magnitude of fiscal multipliers for 47 economies, using a new quarterly dataset spanning the period from 1995 to 2021. We then gauge the impact of the battery of income and wealth inequality measures on the size of government consumption multipliers.
Posted by 10:33 AM
atLabels: Inclusive Growth
From a paper by Markus Brueckner, Gabriele Ciminelli, and Norman Loayza:
“We examine the relationship between oil revenue shocks and labor market regulation empirically in a sample of 83 economies spanning 1970–2014. We find that oil revenue gains lead to a deregulation of the labor market in autocracies but have no effects in democracies. Oil revenue losses instead cause a sizeable deregulation in democracies but have limited effects in autocracies. We then consider possible transmission channels. Democracies appear to use the rents stemming from a positive oil revenue shock to increase government expenditures. Rent extraction and economic efficiency considerations are instead both plausible deregulation drivers following oil revenue gains in autocracies, as expenditures are not raised, while gross domestic product and employment gradually increase. Finally, the deregulation following oil revenue losses in democracies is consistent with the crisis-induced-reform hypothesis, as such losses deteriorate the current account and budget balances and increase the probability of a systemic banking crisis.”
From a paper by Markus Brueckner, Gabriele Ciminelli, and Norman Loayza:
“We examine the relationship between oil revenue shocks and labor market regulation empirically in a sample of 83 economies spanning 1970–2014. We find that oil revenue gains lead to a deregulation of the labor market in autocracies but have no effects in democracies. Oil revenue losses instead cause a sizeable deregulation in democracies but have limited effects in autocracies. We then consider possible transmission channels.
Posted by 10:29 AM
atLabels: Energy & Climate Change
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