The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Cameron Haas, Mateo Hoyos, Emiliano Libman, Guilherme K. Martins, and Arslan Razmi:

“After decades of low and stable inflation, recent global events —such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine —triggered a resurgence in inflationary pressures, prompting central banks worldwide to tighten monetary policy. This paper examines whether monetary policy effectively curbs inflation by employing a trilemma-based identification strategy on a panel dataset of 36 developing and 8 developed economies from 1990 to 2017. Using higher-frequency monthly data, we improve on traditional quarterly or annual approaches by more precisely capturing central bank responses. By applying our theory-driven, trilemma-based identification strategy to a sample of developing countries, we bring novel insights to existing literature. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks have significant but impermanent effects on inflation. A 100 basis point interest rate hike lowers the price level by 3.7% at its peak after six months, with effects fading within 18 months. Crucially, our results do not exhibit the “price puzzle,” reinforcing the credibility of our identification strategy. Additionally, we find that monetary policy effects are state-dependent, with stronger disinflationary impacts during high-inflation periods and in economies with lower GDP per capita or higher commodity export dependence. These findings highlight the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission, underscoring the need for tailored policy responses across different economic contexts.”

From a paper by Andrew Filardo, Mr. R. G Gelos, and Thomas McGregor:

“This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate at short-, medium-, and low frequencies. Next, it assesses the effectiveness of FX intervention depending on the degree of cycle-specific misalignments for 26 advanced- and emerging market economies, covering the period 1990–2018, and using different techniques to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Evidence supports the hypothesis that central banks can lean effectively against short-run cyclical misalignments of the real exchange rate. The effects are present in quarterly data—i.e., at policy-relevant horizons. The effectiveness of intervention rises with the size of the misalignment, and with the duration of one-sided interventions. FX sales appear to be somewhat more effective than FX purchases, and intervention is less effective in more liquid FX markets.”

From a paper by Afees A. Salisu, Rangan Gupta, and Riza Demirer:

“This paper examines the propagation of oil price uncertainty shocks to real equity prices using a large-scale Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model of 26 advanced and emerging stock markets. The GVAR framework allows us to capture the transmission of local and global shocks, while simultaneously accounting for individual-country peculiarities. Utilising a recently developed model-free, robust estimate of oil price uncertainty, we document a statistically significant and negative effect of uncertainty shocks emanating from oil prices on the large majority of global stock markets, with the adverse effect of oil price uncertainty shocks found to be stronger for emerging economies as well as net oil-exporting nations. Interestingly, however, global stock markets exhibit a great deal of heterogeneity in their recovery following oil uncertainty shocks as some experience rapid corrections in stock valuations while others suffer from extended slumps. While the results are sensitive to the oil uncertainty measure utilised, they suggest that country diversification in the face of rising oil market uncertainty can still be beneficial for global investors as global stock markets exhibit a rather heterogeneous pattern in their recovery rates against oil market shocks.”

On cross-country:

• How a mortgage transforms your investment portfolio. They turn retail savers into hedge-fund managers – The Economist
• Why skyscrapers are so short. How to overcome physical, economic and regulatory barriers and build taller – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• The purpose of a building is how it looks. True functionalism combines utility and beauty – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• From Projects to Process. The Promise of Service-Oriented Housing Development – Thesis Driven
• Where Healthcare Meets Housing. A new generation of operators are boosting returns by marrying Medicaid and real estate – Thesis Driven

Working papers and conferences:

• 5th International workshop on rent control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Social media sentiment and house prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese cities – SSRN
• The Effects of Flood Risk Mandatory Disclosure on Housing Markets – SSRN 
• Global Variations of Urban Form: Characterization and Quantification through Intelligent Remote Sensing Image Analysis – Sustainable Cities and Society
• Introduction to Housing – Routledge

On China:

• China Weighs Housing Market Overhaul to Curb Pre-Sales – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] How Housing Became the Third Rail of Australian Politics. Going into a federal election, both major parties are hesitant to tame the sky-high property values that have priced many voters out of the housing market. – New York Times
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Hit Record High Ahead of Saturday’s Vote – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Our Carrie Bradshaw index shows Australia’s housing is in crisis. In most big cities, the average worker struggles to afford their own place – The Economist
• [Australia] Albanese tells crossbench to ‘get out of the way’ on housing as he faces calls for stronger action on environment. PM flags cutting university debts as priority for newly re-elected government as cabinet speculation swirls – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand’s house price crash steepens – MacroBusiness

On other countries:  

• [Belgium] Brussels’ collapsing rental market: How Airbnb is draining the housing supply. In some parts of the city, over 30% of real estate has been converted into tourist accommodation. – The Brussels Times
• [Canada] Canada’s building homes fast─but for how long? – RBC
• [Canada] Canada’s housing markets crack under weight of trade war – RBC
• [Canada] Toronto Home-Price Declines Accelerate Amid Trade War With US – Bloomberg
• [Canada] GTA: Home sales remained depressed in April – National Bank of Canada
• [India] India sees debut listing of residential mortgage-backed securities – Reuters
• [Norway] Norway’s Home Prices Shrink for First Time in Nine Months – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Madrid’s House Prices Rise 24% as Real Estate Crunch Deepens – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] One-of-a-kind ‘Delayed Start’ mortgage launched in UK. The deal, unveiled by Skipton building society, means buyers would not have to make any repayments for the first three months – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK financial watchdog consults on steps to simplify mortgage rules – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK regulator to dilute mortgage lending rules. FCA responds to prime minister’s call for watchdogs to focus on promoting economic growth – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose unexpectedly in April – Halifax – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises – NAHB
• Renters Are Paying More Than Ever—Here’s Where Rents Have Spiked the Most – Realtor.com
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Falling Rents Are Holding the Housing Market Captive. A historic wave of apartment construction has kept rental prices down in much of the US, allowing would-be buyers to put off purchasing decisions. – Bloomberg
• Trump budget would slash rental aid by 40% — and let states fill the gap if they want – NPR
• See Where Home Prices Are Rising and Falling the Most. Markets in Florida and Texas with lots of inventory post biggest price declines, while prices in Northeast and Midwest rise – Wall Street Journal
• Sellers in Sun Belt Cities Are Slashing Home Prices the Most—and the Majority of Cuts Are in Florida – Realtor.com
• High mortgage rates and tariff uncertainty drag on US housing market. Trump’s trade wars and federal job cuts lead to stagnation during what should be peak selling season – FT
• Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase – NAHB
• April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• 3 Reasons Why Houses Are So Expensive Right Now – Redfin
• Could climate change trigger the next subprime mortgage crisis? Climate change is quietly corroding the foundations of the U.S. housing market. The result could be disastrous. – Fast Company

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Canadian Snowbirds Are Selling. Which housing markets are most vulnerable? – Home Economics
• March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips – NAHB
• Federal opportunities to build housing supply and advance affordable homeownership – JP Morgan Chase Policy Center
• Would the Housing Crisis Ease if Boomers Rented Out Their Empty Rooms? Millions of single-family homes are underused, on spacious lots. Refitting them for “roommate houses” or backyard cottages could make a difference. – New York Times
• 69 housing markets where higher inventory is tipping scales to buyers. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 69 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Residential Building Worker Wage Growth Slows Amid Softer Labor Market – NAHB
• Former V-P Mike Pence warns Trump’s tariffs could lead to US shortages – The Straits Times
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• Multifamily Developer Confidence Falls in the First Quarter – NAHB

On other developments:    

• Is Florida’s Downturn Coming for the Rest of the Country? It feels a bit like 2004 – Home Economics
• Americans’ Satisfaction With ‘Good, Affordable Housing’ in U.S. Plunges—Here’s Why – Realtor.com
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March. Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Homeownership further out of reach as rising prices, high mortgage rates widen affordability gap – AP
• Fitch Ratings to Host Webinar on State of the U.S. Housing Economy – Fitch
• Supporting bipartisan policies to tackle the national housing supply shortage – JP Morgan Chase 
• Trump Seeks to End Permanent Supportive Housing for the Chronically Homeless. More than 300,000 people live in such housing, all chronically homeless and disabled. Many are veterans. – New York Times
• Market Volatility Is Already Making the Housing Shortage Worse. What an Arizona land investor is seeing in the market – Bloomberg
• Proposed cuts to housing programs could affect millions, experts warn. The White House proposed slashing funding for Section 8 and other federal programs by about 43 percent, saying it will “fix our broken federal housing policy.” – Washington Post
• Problems With Low-Income Housing Tax Credits. State and local governments should reassess zoning rules, land-use regulations, and permitting requirements that raise costs and slow construction, particularly for multifamily housing. – Cato
• Home Equity Dips Slightly During First Quarter But Remains Near Historic Highs – ATTOM