The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Thao Le:

“This study examines the long-term impact of the Great Recession on employment in residential construction, and consequently housing supply. Using regional variation in house price declines during 2006–2009, I find that more severely impacted areas experienced a persistent reduction in construction employment but higher wage growth post-recession, consistent with a downward shift in construction labor supply. This contraction has a causal negative effect on housing production output. A 10% decrease in house prices during the crisis induced a 17%–20% reduction in 2019 construction employment, which in turn led to a 3.0%–5.7% decline in housing construction.”

From a paper by by Óscar Peláez-Herreros:

“We develop the first disaggregation of Okun’s law that quantifies all of the information that is subsumed within its coefficients. The proposed method decomposes the coefficients into the sum of the direct effect of the change in output upon the unemployment rate, plus the indirect effects of the variations in the output per hour worked, the hours worked per employed person, the participation rate, and the size of the working-age population. With quarterly data for the United States from 1948 to 2024, we found that the value of the intercept in Okun’s relation is determined by the increases in working-age population and output per hour of work, along with the decrease in the number of hours worked per employed person, plus the growth of the participation rate until the 1990s and its subsequent decline. For its part, the slope, that is, the value of Okun’s coefficient, depends mainly upon the variations in output per hour of work and the hours per employed person. The other factors were scarcely relevant. Changes in these components caused the Okun’s relation to vary over time, showing a greater sensitivity of the unemployment rate to variations in production since the 2008 crisis.”

From a paper by M.D.J.W. Wijesinghe, Michael P. Cameron, Susan Olivia, and Les Oxley:

“This study aims to provide a comparative analysis of the impacts of three significant pandemics – the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and the COVID-19 pandemic – on life expectancy and lifespan inequality. Using cause-eliminated life tables and the Theil Index, we examine changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality globally. The findings reveal that each pandemic uniquely altered demographic patterns. The 1918 influenza pandemic caused the sharpest immediate reductions in life expectancy, particularly affecting young adults, and led to a significant rise in lifespan inequality. In contrast, the HIV/AIDS epidemic had a more gradual and enduring impact, disproportionately affecting young and middle-aged adults in its early stages and exacerbating health disparities, especially in regions with limited access to antiretroviral therapy. COVID-19 primarily impacted older populations, resulting in smaller reductions in life expectancy compared to the 1918 influenza but with a distinctive decrease in lifespan inequality due to concentrated mortality among older adults. Furthermore, gender specific effects varied across the pandemics. While the 1918 influenza pandemic and COVID19 showed relatively uniform impacts across genders, HIV/AIDS revealed pronounced disparities, with women experiencing greater reductions in life expectancy and heightened lifespan inequality. By examining the unique mortality patterns and impacts of these pandemics, this study provides valuable insights to policymakers, emphasizing the need for tailored public health strategies to address inequalities and improve resilience in future global health crises.”

From China Daily:

“Manufacturing is the central focus of the industrial and trade policies being implemented by China and many other countries. The sector gets special treatment because of its crucial role in providing the hardware for national defense, decarbonization, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Policymakers also seek to promote manufacturing because it has traditionally been important in generating good jobs for less-educated workers.

But despite manufacturing contributing to national prosperity in both developed and developing countries, with most research and development focused on the sector, it is increasingly unable to create enough jobs for workers who need them. In the United States, for example, less than 10 percent of workers work in manufacturing and even if President Donald Trump’s policies succeed in eliminating the US trade deficit through higher tariffs, the impact will not do much to change the prospects of workers without college degrees.

Inverted U-curve in manufacturing employment

Moreover, since many countries are focused on technological improvements, the skill-based nature of the new industrial policies could further disadvantage less-educated workers. This means additional policies are needed to achieve shared prosperity by creating more jobs for less-educated workers through the promotion of economic activity in services.

The misconceptions about manufacturing today are widespread. It is widely understood that as countries develop, the employment share in farming will decline and the employment share in services will rise. But it is not understood that in almost all countries the employment share in manufacturing follows a humped path — rising in the early stages of development and then declining. All developed and many emerging economies have now passed the peak and are moving along the downward side of the hump.”

Continue reading here.

From China Daily:

“Television broadcasts of fireworks displays with dragon and lion dances around the world celebrating Chinese New Year indicate the spread of Chinese communities to the most far-flung places on the planet. Travelers with a taste for Chinese cuisine fear not, there is a Chinese restaurant wherever you go.

The Chinese are among the most significant migrants, seeking new pastures to spread a culture that dates back more than 3,000 years. One of the migrations dates back to the Ming Dynasty when Zheng He (1371–1435) became the envoy of the Ming emperor, Yong Le. He sent people — many of them Cantonese and Hokkien — to explore and trade in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

There are now an estimated 50 million Chinese spread to every continent in the world, many of whom have taken leading roles in their communities and local politics. Many, with their antecedents being of the Chinese race, have become heads of state, business leaders, notable entertainers, and academics. Winners of international competitions in mathematics, science, and technology, as well as sporting contests, are now seen as nationals of Chinese descent. Overseas Chinese are known as “Huaren” or “Huaqiao” (ethnic Chinese residing outside China).

The Chinese diaspora is thriving, sharing their cultural traditions with the residents of their adoptive homes. The largest overseas Chinese population is in Asia (34.6 million), followed by the continent of America (about 9.8 million). As a testament to their global reach, there has been steady growth in total numbers in every continent since 2010. The overseas Chinese population of Europe (1.32 to 2.38 million) and Oceania (0.95 to 1.77 million) has nearly doubled. However, the most significant growth occurred in Africa, with an increase from 0.24 to 1.18 million—a surge of almost 500 percent in just 12 years, reflecting the dynamic nature of the Chinese diaspora in a developing economy.”

Continue reading here.