The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Remi Jedwab, Brian Blankespoor, Takaaki Masaki, and Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán:

“What are the spillover effects of foreign conflicts on regional economies, and what local factors can help mitigate the impact of such economic shocks? Adopting a difference-in-difference framework leveraging the breakout of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009, we study its effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities until the mid 2010s. We find strong negative effects on regional economic activities – proxied by reductions in nighttime lights – particularly amongst areas within 200 km from the Boko Haram area. This negative impact is concentrated in urban areas, as trade was impacted and economic uncertainty rose. The rise of Boko Haram also resulted in more agricultural burning. Foreign conflict shocks can thus accentuate pressure on domestic resources. Focusing on the heterogeneity of the impacts, we find smaller resilience effects in those areas with a worse geography, less agricultural development, more limited infrastructure, and weaker markets and institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that conflicts may have larger spillover effects in geographically challenging and/or economically poorer regions, as is the case in various regions of Africa.”

From a paper by Seyed Kamal Sadeghi , and Obaida Amer Khudhair:

“Inflation is one of the challenging and vital issues of economics that undeniably affects economic stability in countries all over the world. For this reason, many researchers and policymakers have always sought to identify factors affecting inflation. In the meantime, oil price, as one of the global and strategic variables, can have a significant effect on inflation, especially in countries dependent on oil revenues, such as Iran. Accordingly, considering the importance of inflation and the need to identify the causes and factors affecting it on the one hand and the prominent role of supply-side factors on the other hand, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations on the inflation rate considering the threshold effect of economic growth. To identify the other supply-side factors affecting the inflation rate, including technology and labor market dynamics during 1375-1401, this research applied the threshold regression of time series. According to the results, the oil price has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate when economic growth is lower than 4.303%. This effect is also positive and significant in the economic growth above the mentioned threshold, but its amount is less. In addition, unemployment and technology have negative and significant effects on the inflation rate, which respectively confirms Phillips’s theory and Solow growth theory. However, population size has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate.”

From a paper by Pietro Bomprezzi, Silvia Marchesi, and Rima Turk-Ariss:

“This paper investigates the dynamic aggregate response of firm investments to the approval of an IMF arrangement, distinguishing between General Resource Account (GRA) and Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). Using a stacked difference-in-differences estimator and leveraging firm-level characteristics, we find that firms relying more on external finance, those more exposed to uncertainty, or those with domestic ownership tend to increase investments significantly following a GRA agreement. In contrast, the effect is much more limited in the case of PRGT financed programs. The results contribute to the growing literature on the channels through which IMF programs influence the real economy, offering nuanced insights into how these interventions shape private sector dynamics and broader economic development.”

Working papers and conferences:

• Is there club convergence in the European housing markets? – IDEAS
• Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards – IMF
• Why Is Geographic Mobility Declining? – Richmond Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Labor wants to fix Australia’s housing issues – but there’s little hope for those not already on the ladder. Without genuine reform, experts predict house prices to ‘climb by 6-10% in 2025’ and the gap between homeowners and those locked out of market to widen – The Guardian
• [Australia] Housing policy outlook clears after Federal Election in Australia – Oxford Economics

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto home sellers are slashing prices, offering big discounts – Bloomberg
• [Germany] Real estate prices on the rise, especially in major cities – KIEL
• [Germany] German property prices rise sharply across seven biggest cities – Yahoo Finance
• [Mexico] El precio de la vivienda en México crece 8,2% en 2025, más del doble que la inflación. El precio promedio de una propiedad es de 1,8 millones de pesos, pese a que se ha desacelerado el incremento de precios – El Pais
• [Singapore] Forum: Housing agents not to blame for unrealistic price expectations – The Straits Times
• [Spain] BBVA Research: La escasez de oferta y la presión de la demanda impulsarán el precio de la vivienda un 7,3% en 2025 y un 5,3% en 2026 – BBVA
• [Sweden] Swedes’ Housing Optimism Weakens With Lower Consumer Confidence – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Map Shows Where Prices Are Dropping for Newly Built Homes as Builders Target Smaller Floor Plans – Realtor.com
• Widespread softening: Almost every major housing market is seeing softer pricing. Among the nation’s 50 largest metro-area housing markets, 49 have a weaker year-over-year home-price shift this spring than a year ago. – Fast Company
• Mortgage Rates for New Homes Are Typically Lower, New Research Finds – Realtor.com
• Residential Mortgages Experience Weaker Demand in First Quarter – NAHB
• Rent Prices Are Falling—but These 5 Coastal Cities Remain the Least Affordable – Realtor.com
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025 – Calculated Risk  
• Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase – Calculated Risk
• 2 Southern States Lead the U.S. With the Highest Number of Foreclosures – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• 37 housing markets where sellers hold the most power heading into summer 2025. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, 37 still have significantly less housing inventory than they did in April 2019. – Fast Company
• The Spring Home Sales Season Is Shaping Up to Be a Dud. Inventory is rising, but high home prices and mortgage rates are putting off buyers during the prime selling season – Wall Street Journal
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 3, 2025 – Realtor.com
• Home Listings Surge to 6-Year High—but Cautious Buyers Hold Back – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• New-Construction Insights: Builders Deliver Smaller and More Affordable Homes in These Metros, but Tariffs Threaten Progress – Realtor.com
• Highest Paid Occupations in Construction in 2024 – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Permit Activity Declines in March 2025 – NAHB
• First-Time Home Buyers Are Struggling. That’s Bad News for Builders. Even with construction companies offering cheap mortgages, youngish people are finding it difficult to enter the market – Wall Street Journal
• What is driving up housing costs across the US? – Brookings
• Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence – NAHB

On other developments:    

• What Abundance Lacks. A bestselling progressive book gets its policy all wrong. – Foreign Policy
• US House to Claw Back Biden’s Climate Law to Fund Trump Tax Cuts – Bloomberg
• What’s new in building beautifully. Interesting developments from the last two decades – The Works in Progress Newsletter