The Unassuming Economist

From a speech by Sarah Pritchard:

“Financial inclusion, enabled by innovation, unlocks economic opportunity.

I saw this in action myself when I visited a debt charity in Glasgow recently.

Staff told me how clients used to walk in carrying literal shopping bags of paperwork – bank statements, bills, scraps of paper with notes jotted on them.

You can imagine the time it took trying to piece it all together, not to mention how overwhelming it must have been for the clients themselves.

Well now, thanks to the power of open banking, that is a thing of the past. 

With just a few clicks, the charity can access a clear picture of a client’s finances.

Using faster and better-quality information to help them go from drowning in despair to a plan to decrease their debt. 

From struggling, to stability, to shaping their local economy. My visit showed me how innovation can kickstart a virtuous cycle that benefits everyone. 

Because unless people are financially resilient, with access to the products and services they need, they can’t contribute fully to our economy and its growth.

Strategy

So, I really welcome the Government’s proposals to develop a National Financial Inclusion Strategy. 

Particularly because we know that financial inclusion spans broad social issues from education to poverty to digital connectivity.

Areas where the Government can rightly lead a coordinated, coherent, and collaborative approach to this national challenge. 

And it’s a challenge we shouldn’t underestimate. 

Around 14 million adults in the UK have less than £100 in savings. That’s roughly 25% of UK adults vulnerable to even a small financial shock.

As regulators, we don’t have the direct tools to increase incomes and put more money in people’s pockets.

But through things like the Consumer Duty and our Innovation Hub, we do have levers that, in partnership with others, can make a difference.

And consumer resilience will be a key focus in our next 5-year strategy too, which we outlined on Tuesday.  

By enhancing market integrity, protecting consumers, and promoting competition in financial markets, we can ensure wider access, better quality and less costly products and services. 

And through our new secondary growth objective, we see further potential to support the increased investment, innovation and job creation that can boost financial inclusion.”

Continue reading here.

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2024 – BIS
• Home prices set to rise in Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia in 2025 – Yahoo News 

Working papers and conferences:

• Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – NBER
• The Amplifying Effect of Spatial Planning Restrictions on House Prices and Rents – SSRN
• Energy Price Shock and Housing Market Dynamics: Evidence from Germany – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• Zillow’s Housing Market Predictions for 2025. Zillow predicts more buyers will come out ahead in a bumpy 2025, but unpredictable mortgage rates cloud the picture – Zillow
• Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts – Calculated Risk
• 5 housing markets to watch in 2025. The Sun Belt continues to draw the most new residents — and investments – Quartz
• Housing struggles to stave off headwinds. The November Economics Insider deep dives into the impact of high mortgage rates and home prices on the housing market. While some near-term respite is likely, long-term hurdles will remain. – Deloitte
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
• Seventh Straight Month of Yearly Deceleration in Home Prices – NAHB
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index—Home Prices Up 3.9% in September – Realtor.com
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September – Calculated Risk
• US monthly house prices rise strongly in September – Reuters
• Housing market shift: Where home prices are actually falling. Some regional housing markets in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, are experiencing mild home price corrections. – Fast Company
• US Home-Purchase Applications Rise to Highest Since February – Bloomberg
• Best Quarter for Multifamily Missing Middle Construction in 17 Years – NAHB
• Single-Family Home Size Nearing Turning Point? – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales – Calculated Risk
• October 2024 Rental Report: Rents Continue to Fall, With More New Units Expected in 2025 – Realtor.com
• New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October. Median New Home Price is Down 5% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• October New Home Sales Down on Higher Rates – NAHB
• Make it count: Measuring our housing supply shortage – Brookings
• New-Home Sales Cool Down in October – Realtor.com
• Small Gain for Multifamily Built-for-Sale Construction – NAHB
• Apartment Completions Rise Resulting in Slower Absorption Rates – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• N.Y.C. Housing Plan Moves Forward With an Unexpected $5 Billion Boost. A City Council committee passed a major proposal that would ease restrictions on housing growth in New York. The full Council is likely to approve it next month. – New York Times
• Brooklyn Needs Housing. She Has a Vacant Lot. Why Can’t She Build? A property owner’s effort to develop an apartment building in a popular neighborhood has been stymied for years. She may just give up. – New York Times
• HUD’s Authority Rests on a House of Cards. Where in the Constitution is there any authority to govern “housing and urban development”? – Wall Street Journal
• The Enigma of the Slum in Postwar America – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Future of Homebuilding: Domestic Migration Is Driving the Housing Market – Realtor.com
• Could Donald Trump crush the US property market? – Financial Review
• How the Trump administration might affect D.C.’s housing market – Axios
• A Decade of Soaring Home Prices: Where Affordability Still Thrives – National Association of Realtors
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October – Calculated Risk 
• U.S. housing affordability to worsen even as price rises slow: Reuters poll – Reuters
• A Housing Crisis Deepens, and a Reporter Digs In. To really communicate with people about the many problems arrayed across the housing landscape, we needed to cut through the noise. – New York Times 

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Suburbs where home values plunged – and set a trap for buyers – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Sydney and Melbourne house prices tipped to fall in 2025. But SQM research report warns that prices in other Australian capitals are likely to surge, depending on interest rates and population growth rates – The Guardian
• [Australia] New home construction slumps to near 40-year low in Australia as renovation spending booms. ‘This indicates that there is not enough money and resources being attracted to expanding the housing stock,’ urban economist says – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Brazil] A Look Overseas: The Brazilian Real Estate Tech Ecosystem. Trends and lessons from the evolution of real estate tech in Latin America’s largest market – Thesis Driven
• [Germany] German home prices to climb 3% next year on lower rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Ireland] Canadian Relentless house price rises continue with another hike of 10pc – Irish Independent
• [Pakistan] Rebuilding Homes and Strengthening Communities: An Integrated Approach to Pakistan’s Housing Reconstruction – Development Asia
• [United Kingdom] UK property sector hit by fears of resurgent inflation. Big housebuilders have shed billions in value since October Budget – FT

From a paper by Óscar Cabrera García and Carla Marrero Yanes:

“Arthur Okun, in 1962, established a relationship between unemployment and GDP after having
studied the behaviour of these variables in the US economy. To analyze the fulfillment of this
relationship in Spain, we used the specification of the model in differences, estimating it not only in
a static but also dynamic way for the national whole, as well as by sex and age groups. Our study
period is between 2003-2023. The results obtained suggest that the “Okun’s Law” is indeed fulfilled,
not only for the national whole but also for age groups and sex, although there are certain
differences in some groups, as well as depending on the type of analysis carried out.”

From a paper by Yadavindu Ajit and Taniya Ghosh:

“This study examines the effects of inflation targeting on inflation levels, its volatility, and its persistence
in emerging market economies. To better estimate the dynamic treatment effects of inflation targeting,
the study uses a larger set of data, including 59 emerging market economies, an extended sample
spanning 1985-2019, and a methodology that takes into account the staggered adoption of inflation
targeting by these economies. Traditional models used in the literature failed to account for staggered
adoption, resulting in biased estimates. Inflation targeting has been shown to significantly reduce
inflation levels in emerging markets, especially when hyperinflationary economies are excluded. Results
indicate significant reductions in inflation three to four years after adoption. In comparison, the findings
for inflation volatility and persistence are more nuanced. Standard models indicate initial volatility
reductions, but models that account for staggered adoption show no significant long-term impact.
Moreover, inflation targeting has no significant impact on inflation persistence, even in more stable
environments. These findings highlight the effectiveness of using models that account for staggered policy adoption when evaluating long-term policy impacts, and they suggest that, while inflation targeting is a viable tool for reducing inflation in emerging markets, its broader effects on inflation volatility and persistence have been limited.”

From a paper by James Mitchell, Taylor Shiroff, and Hana Braitsch:

“This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households’ inflationary expectations – the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households’ point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combination forecasts are constructed. Tenured households on average produce lower point forecasts of inflation, perceive less forecast uncertainty, round their uncertainty but not their point forecasts, report unimodal densities, and provide internally consistent point and density forecasts.”