The Unassuming Economist

From a book chapter by Ayse Kaya:

“Employing text data analysis on over 6,500 International Monetary Fund (IMF) documents from different operational units of the organization, this chapter first finds that the IMF’s approach to inequality has changed over the past two decades, but in a manner that is uneven across the different constituent parts of the organization. This evidence lends further support to the notion of IMF and IO “fragmented change” developed by Kaya and Reay (2019). Second, the chapter finds that while inequality now is more prominent in the IMF’s policy advice, it matters only insofar as inequality is related to core macroeconomic issues—institutional change has occurred in a “mission-consistent” manner. Thus, the IMF has more focus on inequality in institutional thinking but less in institutional output.”

From a paper by Shehla Arif:

“In this chapter, we examine larger systems of oppression encapsulating all aspects of life including engineering practice and education. We describe a direction for engineering education with the goal of building a socially just and peaceful society. The particular focus is on ‘transitions’ from ‘business-as-usual’ to equitable societies living within the planetary limits, termed ‘just’ by multiple intersectional grassroots social movements. We uncover the underlying assumptions in current engineering practice and associated education building on ideas expressed in Chap. 1 and demonstrate how engaging with social movements in the realm of engineering education provides a pathway towards creating a just and peaceful world.”

On cross-country:

• Rising housing costs in the EU. Rising housing prices and rents are a big concern for many Europeans. – European Parliament
• Golden Passports and Visas: How Investment Migration Works – Council on Foreign Relations

Working papers and conferences:

• Event: 13th Annual Housing Center Conference on November 21 – AEI
• The housing consumption channel of mortgage demand – VoxEU
• Housing markets in Portugal and Spain: Fundamentals, overvaluation and shocks – Banco de Portugal
• Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom – SSRN
• Prime Locations, Hidden Costs: Measuring the Impact of Amazon Distribution Centers on Housing Prices – SSRN 
• Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments – SSRN
• Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets – SSRN
• The Racial Dynamics of U.S. Neighborhoods and Their Housing Prices from 1950 Through 1990 – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed’s Big Cut. What’s the link between benchmark rates and home loans? – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Rates Surge, Putting a Damper on Home Buying and Refinancing – Realtor.com
• Redfin Reports Rising Mortgage Rates Haven’t Yet Slowed Pending Sales – Redfin 
• Mortgage rates were supposed to come down. Instead, they’re rising. Here’s why – NPR
• Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.44%, Yet ‘Buyers May Be Feeling Ready To Act’ – Realtor.com 
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – October 2024 | Spotlight: First-Time Homebuyers – Freddie Mac
• Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey – Fannie Mae
• Home Sales on Track for Worst Year Since 1995. September sales fell 3.5% from a year earlier. In 2023, home sales hit their lowest point in 30 years. – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.354 million Annual Rate in September – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Starts Trend Higher in September – NAHB
• Housing market shift: 6 major markets where home prices are actually falling. Some regional housing markets in states, such as Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, are experiencing mild home price corrections. – Fast Company
• America Is Primed for a Home-Renovation Resurgence. Falling interest rates are expected to make it easier to pay for big home-improvement projects – Wall Street Journal 
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low. Median House Prices Increased 3.0% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall to 14-Year Low in September – NAHB
• The Multifamily Housing Conundrum – Atlanta Fed 

On the US—other developments:    

• How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis – Agglomerations
• Housing costs are rising everywhere — but especially in swing states. America’s housing affordability crisis is weighing heavily on the nation’s most sought-after voters in places like Wilmington, N.C., where home prices have risen 65 percent since 2019. – Washington Post
• As Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way. Shuttered factories and trade deals helped turn working-class Midwesterners against Democrats. Will the high cost of housing do the same in the Sun Belt? – New York Times
• Can Million-Dollar Apartments Solve California’s Housing Crisis? – Cato  
• Where do the estimates of a “housing shortage” come from? – Brookings
• High Prices, Low Supply: Three Swing State Cities Show the Housing Crunch. Middle-class housing pain is especially acute in Las Vegas, Philadelphia and Atlanta areas – Bloomberg
• POLITICO’s Affordable Housing: The New Agenda – Politico   
• Down Payments Are Dropping From Historic Highs—See How Much Homebuyers Can Save Today – Realtor.com
• California’s Unaffordable Housing Plans. Ballot measures would let localities impose rent control and evade property-tax limits. – Wall Street Journal
• California Home Sales Up 5% SA YoY in September – Calculated Risk
• How Developers Are Catering to Would-Be Homeowners With Rental Amenities. Families are choosing to rent for the foreseeable future  — some out of necessity, others for amenities. – New York Times
• Housing Cost Burdens Across Congressional Districts – NAHB
• Home Equity Gains Level Off as U.S. Housing Market Cools Down During Third Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On China:

• China Home Price Slump Drags On Despite Revival Efforts – Bloomberg
• China Ramps up Spending on Housing Projects to $562bn. Minister vows to expand its “white list” of housing projects for priority funding, while banks boost lending for developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) by year-end – Asia Financial
• China will win ‘tough battle’ to preserve property sector: housing minister. China’s housing ministry unveiled its plan to support the country’s property sector, with an expansion of funding to 4 trillion yuan – South China Morning Post
• China’s home prices see biggest drop in 9 years despite efforts to revive market. New home prices in September fell 6.1 per cent year on year in 70 mainland cities, widening from a 5.7 per cent slump in August – South China Morning Post
• China cuts mortgage rate in ‘encouraging sign’, but heavy lifting still needed. Five-year loan prime rate lowered from 3.85 per cent to 3.6 per cent, the People’s Bank of China said on Monday – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Making sense of housing policy proposals – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Why does big business want Australia to spend billions on not building houses? Housing developers have a keen financial interest in drip-feeding new homes into the market to maximise their returns – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia is getting serious about the housing crisis. Young people, parents and grandparents should all have a stake in fixing arguably Australia’s No.1 economic and social challenge. – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Canada] ‘In the Red Pretty Deep’: Canadian Housing Investors Try to Sell to Stanch Losses. Outlook ‘not great’ for housing investors, RBC economist says. Rental rates have flatlined recently as immigration slows – Bloomberg
• [Malaysia] In a Malaysian Pop-Up City, Echoes of China’s Housing Crash. Forest City was an audacious $100 billion project by a top Chinese developer. Today, the project is a fraction of what had been planned and the developer is broke. – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Crisis Has a Back-to-the-Future Fix. New towns are the forgotten half of a social contract that helped to transform living conditions after the war. Labour’s plan to revive them is overdue. – Bloomberg

From a paper by Fahmida Mostafiz:

“This paper explores the connection between industrial policy and New Structural Economics (NSE) from the perspective of a transitioning economy. The NSE emphasizes that by leveraging comparative advantages, investing in infrastructure and human capital, diversifying the industrial base, and enacting institutional reforms, transitioning economies can achieve sustainable economic development. For industrial policy to be effective, it must align with these principles. Using Bangladesh as a case study, this paper proposes a theoretical framework that links industrial policy with NSE to foster sustainable economic growth. The framework emphasizes the critical role of government intervention in resource allocation, benefit distribution, and industrial growth, all of which are driven by targeted industrial policies. Additionally, it categorizes Bangladesh’s industries into five groups, prioritizing leading-edge sectors focused on technological advancement and skill development over catching-up industries that address productivity gaps. This paper contributes to the understanding of Bangladesh’s industrial policy through the lens of NSE, shedding light on the underlying dynamics that shape the country’s industrial structure, competitiveness, and future economic trajectory.”

From a paper by Jeisson Riveros and Muhammad Shahbaz:

“Nowadays, nobody can deny the relationship between economic growth and sustainability; however, the tendency to un-match a linear relationship between those two has acquired the name of “decoupling” economy, which means that the consumption of energy not necessarily has to rise at the same rate of gross domestic product, in order to reduce carbon emissions in a country or certain area. Then this document aims to study the Colombian decoupling, analyzing the economic structure and energy consumption between 1975 to 2021, applying the TAPIO model and the logarithmic mean Divisa index (LMDI) using the KAYA identity as a conversion factor (TAPIO+KAYA+LMDI) to analyze the trends per economical sector. Finding that, the Colombian economy has a predominant status of weak decoupling with randomly switches to strong decoupling, positioning it as a sustainable economy; although this condition is environmentally favorable, under a comprehensive public policy, energy consumption by economic sector can be increased to improve economic productivity and achieve better production levels on the sectors of agriculture, mines, and commerce whose energy consumption according to the data is substantially low.”