The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Oguzhan Cepni, Abdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Enes Olgun, and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz:

“This paper investigates whether inflation forecasting in emerging economies can be improved with the inclusion of a global inflation component. Focusing on the headline inflation rate of Türkiye, we implement a forecasting exercise using a large dataset describing domestic macroeconomic as well as global inflation dynamics. Our factor-augmented predictive regression results show that incorporating global inflation factors derived from other emerging markets’ inflation rates enhances forecasting accuracy of the local headline inflation rate. The results are robust to using alternative dimension-reduction methods, including the elastic net technique. Our findings contribute to the current methodological toolkit available to policymakers for predicting inflation in an emerging market context.”

From a paper by Yushi Xu, Baifan Chen, Jionghao Huang, Qingsha Hu, and Shuning Kong:

“This study innovatively combines the structural vector autoregression model with a novel frequency connectedness approach to explore the dynamic connectedness between heterogeneous oil price shocks and inflation across both developed and emerging economies. By investigating the connectedness relationship between oil shocks and inflation from the G7 (Group of Seven countries) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries, our findings reveal a significantly dynamic heterogeneous oil–inflation nexus. Firstly, our analysis reveals that oil supply shocks predominantly serve as receivers of inflation, whereas aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks primarily act as transmitters. Additionally, the connectedness between oil price shocks and inflation is mainly driven by long-term factors and exhibits notable time-varying characteristics, with significant increases in connectedness strength observed during periods of oil and financial crises. Lastly, our study shows that developed economies are more inclined to transmit shocks to the global crude oil market, while their vulnerability to external shocks from the international crude oil market is markedly heightened by greater resource dependence and a lack of self-sufficiency. This study not only provides a new perspective on understanding the intricate relationship between oil price shocks and inflation but also offers a crucial theoretical framework and empirical evidence to assist policymakers and investors in navigating the fluctuations of the global energy market.”

From Torsten Sløk:

“The Consumer Price Index is 22% higher than in January 2020, see chart below.

This means that the prices of all goods and services that consumers spend money on are up, on average, 22%.

For example, since January 2020, the price of cereal is 30% higher, household electricity is 32% higher, and car insurance is 52% higher.

The bottom line is that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, namely year-over-year inflation, may be back near 2%, but the living costs for households are still dramatically higher than four years ago.

From UNDP:

“The African Union Commission and the United Nations Development Programme, represented by the Regional Bureau for Africa, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to provide a framework for cooperation and facilitate development activities. The MoU will foster the principle of ‘One Framework, Two Agendas’ within the existing coordination and planning mechanisms across the continent – including the Africa Regional Collaborative Platform, planning mechanisms of AU Member States for national and local authorities, and UN sustainable development cooperation frameworks in the Member States.  

H.E. Dr. Monique Nsanzabaganwa, Deputy Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) noted the MOU is a critical milestone enabling the AU, UNDP, and other UN entities to drive Africa towards collective progress. “We, therefore, look forward to UNDP pushing the sustainable development envelope within the framework of this MOU and enhancing synergies to ensure the integration of the two Agendas into subnational, national, regional and continental plans,” she added.

The three-year Memorandum details UNDP and AUC’s commitment to cooperating in areas of common interest by advancing bold Moonshots for inclusive growth, integration, and empowerment. With only six years left to meet the SDG targets, Africa is aligning its agenda with accelerated pathways. The renewed partnership between AUC and UNDP is a significant step towards aligning resources, expertise, and strategies to accelerate Africa’s development agenda. It will proceed within the AU-UN Framework to implement Agenda 2063 priorities and the UN’s Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development at the national and regional levels.

Ms. Ahunna Eziakonwa UN Assistant Secretary General and UNDP Regional Director for Africa said AUC and UNDP have transformed the Regional Collaborative Platform from simple information exchange sessions into a more structured, deliberate, and results-oriented partnership. 

“Over the past four years, UNDP has co-created initiatives and programmes with the African Union that exceed $100 million across our collaborative areas. We are proud to partner with Africa’s premier continental body to collectively realize the Africa we want and the continent that the world needs. Through efforts like the African Young Women Leaders Programme, the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT), and our support for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), we are proud to advance inclusive growth, regional integration, and empowerment.” She added.

Under the Memorandum, AUC and UNDP commit to harmonised mechanisms for domesticating, awareness creation, monitoring, reporting and delivering the Second Ten Year Implementation Plan (STYIP) of Agenda 2063 alongside the SDGs in support of all Stakeholders, including but not limited to Member States, development partners, private sector, Regional Economic Communities, citizens of African Union Member States, and civil society. AUC and UNDP also pledge to consult and keep each other informed of matters of common interest and review the progress of partnership implementation through various initiatives.”

From the North Africa Post:

“Morocco has offered to support the Republic of Guinea in sustainable and inclusive socioeconomic development within the frame of solidarity- based South-South cooperation spearheaded by King Mohammed VI.

The offer was made by Head of Govt. Aziz Akhannouch during talks he held Thursday in Rabat with Guinea’s Prime Minister Mamadou Oury Bah in presence of foreign minister Nasser Bourita.

The Moroccan offer also includes support to the West African country, particularly in agriculture, fisheries, healthcare, and industry.

Mr. Akhannouch hailed the bonds of brotherhood, friendship, and solidarity existing between the two African countries. He also recalled the visits paid by King Mohammed VI to Guinea in 2014 and 2017 to bolster cooperation ties with Conakry.

Heads of government of the two countries also discussed ways of strengthening economic cooperation, trade, and investment in priority strategic sectors.

In 2020, Guinea opened a consulate in Moroccan Saharan city of Dakhla, a diplomatic move reflecting recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara by this African country.”