The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Is the global housing slump over? Why rising interest rates have not yet triggered property pandemonium – The Economist
• Global Residential Real Market Report – Q1 2023 – Global Property Guide

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Is the rent still too damn high? – FT
• Renters Are About to Get the Upper Hand. New-lease rents are poised to fall on an annual basis for only the second time since 2008 financial crisis – Wall Street Journal
• Lawler: Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• The “Home ATM” was Closed in Q1. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) turns negative in Q1 2023 – Calculated Risk
• Climate Change and Homeowners’ Insurance Are on a Collision Course. As escalating catastrophes take a toll on profitability, insurance companies are getting better at looking forward. The results aren’t pretty. – Bloomberg
• Public Education and Intergenerational Housing Wealth Effects – NBER
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 2023 Q1 Cross-Market Demand Report: Homeownership, Affordability, and Warmer Climates Influence Moving Patterns – Realtor
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June – Calculated Risk
• Affordable Housing Woes Paint a ‘Bleak Picture’. So many developments have been sidetracked or delayed that some experts expect a “production cliff” to hit in a year or so, meaning fewer new homes coming onto the market. – New York Times

On China:

• Why China’s housing policies have failed – Peterson Institute for International Economics
• China’s property sector set to be persistently weak for years -Goldman – Reuters
• Iron Ore Sheds Nearly 5% After Goldman’s China Property Warning. Real estate weakness to be multiyear growth drag, bank says. Steel-making ingredient halts eight-day advance in Singapore – Bloomberg
• Economists posting their Ls. If a Chinese property market falls in the forest, could it not make too much of a noise? – FT
• Gold bars used to lure Chinese homebuyers amid market slowdown. Property developers struggle to rebuild confidence in housing market after three years of economic pain – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Australia] New Insights into the Rental Market – Reserve Bank of Australia
• [Australia] Forget death and taxes, the real certainty in Australia is rising house prices. A record number of interest rate rises has failed to take the wind out of the property market – but it’s good news for negative gearers – The Guardian
• [Ireland] Irish developer says up is the only way out of Dublin’s housing shortage. Johnny Ronan came to symbolise the country’s property-driven boom-to-bust cycle – FT
• [Italy] Wealthy Buyers Are Turning This Region Into One of Italy’s Hottest Home Markets. Once an impoverished area, Puglia has seen an influx of high-end buyers willing to spend millions on historic farmhouses and villas – Wall Street Journal
• [Korea] Bank of Korea Warns of Financial Risk as Real Estate Loans Fail. BOK flags delinquencies on real estate loans, non-bank risk. Governor Rhee Chang-yong says in text of speech Monday – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand must free up land, expand housing supply to ease home affordability, IMF says – Reuters
• [Sweden] Swedes’ View on Housing Market Brightens as Rates May Soon Peak – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How stubborn inflation has undermined the UK housing market. Lenders have continued to raise mortgage rates, leaving buyers and homeowners struggling with costs – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market strains grow as mortgage rates creep higher – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] ‘This is just ruinous’: the Britons unable to afford their homes. Millions are finding themselves priced out of renting and buying amid high inflation and mortgage rates – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Find out where you can afford to buy or rent in Great Britain. In nearly half of postcode districts the typical household cannot afford to buy a home, while in others a sustainable rent is also out of reach. Use the map below to see where is affordable for you – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Summer Rate Hikes Threaten to Push UK Housing Market to Breaking Point. Inflation and the BOE are increasing strains on the market – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Rishi Sunak under pressure as HSBC raises mortgage rates for second time in week. Brokers warn that other lenders will follow suit in blow to households – FT

On cross-country:

• (Can) cities save the world!? Brussels Urban Summit 2023 – Euro Cities
• Global housing outlook brightens despite pressure from higher rates – Reuters poll – Reuters
• Amoral cities are flourishing in a turbulent geopolitical era. Our index ranks economic performance over the past three years – The Economist

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Housing Market Update: Mortgage Rates Are Up, Home Sales Are Down, Prices Are Resilient – Redfin
• Could 6% to 7% 30-Year Mortgage Rates be the “New Normal”? – Calculated Risk
• Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate. Asking Rents Likely to be Down year-over-year in June or July – Calculated Risk
• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Month-to-month in April; Prices Unchanged YoY. Credit Tightening: “April purchase credit scores were the highest on record” – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Hidden Costs of Homeownership Can Add Up to Nearly $15,000 Annually – Zillow
• The Housing Supply is Tight. How About a Texas Ghost Town for $100,000? There’s a catch—the buyer has to have a plan. ‘Do you respect what I call the soul of Lobo?’ People are flocking to the outpost to present their ideas – Wall Street Journal
• Covid Housing Relief, Forever. The FHA wants to cover mortgage arrears that it helped to cause. – Wall Street Journal
• Early Look at Local Housing Markets in May. Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down Less YoY in May than in April NSA – Calculated Risk 
• Housing Affordability Posts Solid Gain but Still Much Lower from a Year Ago – NAHB

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia UK House Prices Are Falling Again — And There’s More Pain Ahead. Consumer budgets squeezed by inflation and interest rates. Outlook poses a danger for Rishi Sunak before next election – Blomberg
• [United Kingdom] British home prices to slip but won’t come crashing down, Reuters poll shows – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decade. Property prices down 1% last month compared with May 2022, the first annual fall since December 2012 – FT

On cross-country:

• How Falling Home Prices Could Strain Financial Markets as Interest Rates Rise. Countries with elevated housing prices and high household debt issued at floating rates are particularly vulnerable to monetary policy tightening – IMF
• Statistical release: BIS residential property price statistics in Q4 2022 – BIS
• Institutional investors and house price growth – European Central Bank

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Is immigration raising rents in America? No, but in a few big cities it might be. – Noahpinion
• US monthly home prices increase in March, surveys show – Reuters and Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Increased 0.7% year-over-year in March. “FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.6 percent from February.” – Calculated Risk
• US home prices to fall less than expected despite high borrowing costs, Reuters poll shows – Reuters
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in April; Up 0.3% Year-over-year. Boise leads Cities with 11.3% decline from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.2% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.3% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Marginal vs. Average Mortgage Rates – St. Louis Fed

On the US—other developments:    

• The Housing Credit Crunch. How the US Housing Market is Surviving the Rapid Increase in Mortgage Rates Over the Last Year – Apricitas Economics
• Total Housing Completions will Likely Decrease Slightly in 2023; The Mix will Change. Multi-family completions should increase sharply this year – Calculated Risk
• Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in April: Single Family Declined, Multi-Family Increased – Calculated Risk
• America Needs More Housing, But Not More Public Housing. Instead of building more units, governments should focus on making construction easier for the private sector. – Bloomberg
• Lawler: Census Finally Releases 2020 Census Demographic Profile and Demographic and Housing Characteristics File – Calculated Risk

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia Briefing: Housing Markets Diverge – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s rental affordability drops to worst levels in nearly a decade. New report shows average households are spending a third of income on rent while lower income families pay more than half their earnings – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why house prices are sending a false signal. The stunning turnaround in house prices hides some worrying issues in the housing sector and the broader economy. – Financial Review
• [Denmark] Danish Housing Is Stable After ‘Quite a Fall,’ Governor Says. Prices rose for two months in a row, provider Boligsiden said. Central bank chief spoke in interview on Bloomberg Television – Bloomberg
• [Germany] Germany home prices to fall modestly this year and next, Reuters poll shows – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices to Rise Earlier Than Expected, ANZ Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Agreed house sales in UK at highest point this year, says Zoopla. But property website warns that rebound in activity could be hit by rising mortgage rates – The Guardian  
• [United Kingdom] Fixing Britain’s broken housing market. To raise home ownership, blockages in the planning and tax system need to be removed – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices extend falls as mortgage repayments soar. Rising interest rates drive drop in prices in May and highest net repayment of loans outside pandemic – FT

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Biden Courts Another Mortgage Crisis. Housing officials double down on the policies that preceded the crash of 2008. – Wall Street Journal
• The house price slump might be nearly over despite soaring mortgage rates, Goldman Sachs says – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

• A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors. They were offered the benefits of owning apartment-building rentals without any of the work, in real-estate investments that have already left some people empty-handed – Wall Street Journal
• Existing Home Sales Retreat Amid Mortgage Rate Volatility – NAHB
• US housing: homeowners are the successful hedge funds of the pandemic era. The big winners are those who are happy with their present locations – FT
• Similar Number of Housing Units started in Q1 as ‘Built-for-Rent’ as ‘Built-for-Sale’. Quarterly Housing Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design – Calculated Risk
• New Single-Family Home Size Trending Lower – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April. California Home Sales down 36% YoY in April, Median Prices Down 7.8% YoY – Calculated Risk
• Just Build the Homes. Public housing is ready to make a comeback. – Slate
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Fannie Mae
• Two Key Housing Themes: Low Inventory and Few Distressed Sales – Calculated Risk

On China:

• Effects of the Implementation of the Broadband China Policy (BCP) on House Prices: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China – EconPapers

On other countries:  

• [Australia] ‘Significant turnaround’ in Australian house prices defies predictions as demand rises. CoreLogic says if increase is maintained, prices will be 4% higher at the end of 2023, defying forecasts of falls of 10% or more – The Guardian
• [Austria] It Might Look Like Vienna. Soaring real estate markets have created a worldwide housing crisis. What can we learn from a city that has largely avoided it? – New York Times
• [Germany] German Housing Push Falters as Building Permits Slump by a Third. Lobby calls for construction stimulus to prevent job losses. ‘People willing to build are losing heart,’ ZDB lobby says – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Treasury Now Sees House Prices Declining Into 2024 – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] The Face of Sweden’s Property Bust Fights for $13 Billion Empire. Ilija Batljan’s struggles illustrate the risk of debt-fueled real estate expansion – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] The Era of Huge UK House Price Rises Is Ending, Economist Says. David Miles is on the UK budget watchdog’s top committee. He says slower population growth among factors to cool prices – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] House prices need to fall relative to income, Keir Starmer says. Labour leader accuses Conservative government of killing the dream of home ownership – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices: Is This a Lull, or The Bottom? House price falls have paused in many markets across the globe. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why Britain doesn’t build. The history of attempts to reform planning in Britain is proof that political willpower is not enough: you need to be smart, not just brave. – Work in Progress
• [United Kingdom] How can we make homes more affordable? – London School of Economics

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• A problem for the housing market: People won’t quit their cheap mortgages. Fewer homes are available because homeowners are hanging onto coveted rates of 3 or 4 percent – Washington Post
• The Great Pandemic Mortgage Refinance Boom – New York Fed
• First-Time Buyers Did Not Drive Strong House Price Appreciation in 2021 – New York Fed
• Year-over-Year Decline for Single-Family Permits in March 2023 – NAHB
• US Housing Starts Rise in Sign Home Construction Is Stabilizing. Beginning construction rose 2.2% in April to 1.4 million rate. Gain in one-family homebuilding due to surge in West region – Bloomberg

On the US—other developments:    

• US cities must beware the ‘donut effect’. Many of America’s urban centres are struggling to lure workers back post-pandemic, but the suburbs are thriving – FT
• Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations – NBER
• Income Gains and the Geography of the US Home Ownership Boom, 1940 to 1960 – NBER
• A debt ceiling default would send the U.S. housing market back into a deep freeze. A debt default is very unlikely, but new scenario projections from Zillow show sales would decrease sharply as mortgage costs balloon – Zillow
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April – Calculated Risk
• The US city where ‘desert palaces’ are sprouting as affordable homes dwindle – The Guardian
• The Fed Hiked Rates and Housing Is as Broken as Ever. The weird housing market gets weirder. – Bloomberg
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• Coastal Cities Priced Out Low-Wage Workers. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too. – New York Times
• Economists Hate Rent Control. Here’s Why They’re Wrong. Half of Americans, namely homeowners, already have rent control. It’s time to expand it to everyone. – The American Prospect
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April. Distribution of Interest Rates on First-Liens Mortgages Outstanding – Calculated Risk
• April Housing Starts: Near Record Multi-Family Under Construction. Housing Starts at 1.401 million Annual Rate in April – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Markets in April. Expect the NAR to Report Sales of around 4.33 million for April – Calculated Risk
• Seven of 10 Riskiest US Climate Locations Are Appreciating Faster than National Rate. Exploring climate change risks on the housing market with CoreLogic Climate Risk Analytics as a guide – CoreLogic
• NAHB Debuts New Index for Multifamily Activity – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY. Record Low for Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales in April – Calculated Risk

On China:

• China Housing Rebound Fizzling Shows Risks to Economic Recovery. High-frequency data suggests a short-lived housing recovery. Waning property recovery may limit China’s growth this year – Bloomberg
•  China’s Home-Price Growth Slows as Housing Rebound Fizzles. Prices of new homes rose 0.32% in April, slowing from 0.44%. Adds to signs that the property recovery is weakening – Bloomberg
• China’s developers keep their investment powder dry even as home sales improved in the first 4 months of 2023 – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Going halves: are shared equity schemes the answer in Australia’s pricey property market? – The Guardian
• [Australia] The great divide: even if millennials could afford a home, there aren’t enough to buy. The affordability gulf between Australia’s generations is due to demographic luck and policy decisions. But the crux of the problem is supply – The Guardian
• [Austria] Vienna Becomes Epicenter of Europe’s Housing Woes. Bloomberg’s housing tracker shows the Austrian capital is showing some of the steepest declines in Europe – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts – Reuters
• [Korea] S. Korean house prices fall in April for 11th straight month – Reuters
• [Turkey] Istanbul Gets Caught Between Housing Crunch and Earthquake Risk. Soaring housing prices and political squabbling in Turkey’s largest city are hampering efforts to rebuild unstable homes. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Renters’ reform must close loopholes for unfair evictions, campaigners say. Experts warn Michael Gove lack of detail would allow landlords to circumvent legal overhaul – The Guardian