The Unassuming Economist

David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, and Henrietta H Fore, Executive Director of UNICEF write about mitigating educational challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic in a recent opinion piece (December 2021) for Project Syndicate. Excerpts from the article:

“According to World Bank estimates, pandemic-related school closures could drive up “learning poverty” – the share of 10-year-olds who cannot read a basic text – to around 70% in low- and middle-income countries. This learning loss could cost an entire generation of schoolchildren $17 trillion in lifetime earnings. Throughout the pandemic, marginalized children have struggled the most. When classrooms around the world reopened this fall, it became clear that these children had fallen even further behind their peers. Before the pandemic, gender parity in education was improving. But school closures placed an estimated ten million more girls at risk of early marriage, which practically guarantees the end of their schooling.”

Further, they discuss prospects for higher investment in education, some best practices, and access to digital learning as a “great equalizer”.

Click here to read the full article.

In a column for VoxDev ( December 2021), economists Eeshani Kandpal and Elina Pradhan of the World Bank Development Research Group, Madhulika Khanna from Yale University, and Benjamin Loevinsohn of The Global Fund explain results from an experiment in Nigeria. “Providing operating funds to public health facilities can be as effective as alternative pay-for-performance models, at half the cost”, they write.

The authors discuss some factors besides poor effort put in by healthcare workers, such as lack of control on operational budget by PHCs which causes delays and other inefficiencies to build a case in favor of decentralized financing. The study compares outcomes from two interventions- pay for performance and decentralized facility financing. It presents conclusions about the performance of both interventions in areas like quality of service delivered, immunization of children, use of contraceptives, antenatal care-seeking. The article also discusses several policy insights.

Click here to read the full column.

The latest report by World Health Organization, Global expenditure on health: Public spending on the rise? (2021), highlights interesting statistics about expenditure in high income, low income, and low middle-income countries on primary healthcare, the correlation between government spending and out-of-pocket expenditure, trends in public investment patterns, etc. It analyzes data over a 20 year period, from 2000 until 2019, and provides crucial policy insights alongside recent developments.

“Overall, global spending on health has doubled in real terms over the past two decades, reaching US$ 8.5 trillion in 2019 and 9.8% of GDP (up from 8.5% in 2000). Spending on health remained highly unequal—and more unequal than the distribution of global GDP. High income countries accounted for nearly 80% of global spending on health (with the United States of America alone accounting for more than 40%), and their average spending per capita was more than four times the average GDP per capita of low income countries. In countries for which data were available, about half of health spending went towards primary health care (PHC), representing about 3% of GDP on average. Nearly half of PHC spending was funded by private sources, the same as for non-PHC services. Among the low income countries for which data were available, about one-third of PHC spending came from external aid and one-fifth came from government sources, whereas the composition was reversed for non-PHC spending. Further analysis from a set of low and middle income countries indicates that the share of PHC spending that went to infectious diseases was significantly higher than the share that went to noncommunicable diseases and injuries.”

Click here to access the full report.

OECD’s latest report, Pensions at a Glance (2021), discusses in detail the financial pressures arising out of rapidly ageing global populations. Although life expectancy gains in old age have slowed since 2010, the pace of ageing is projected to be fast over the next two decades. The size of the working-age population is projected to fall by more than one‑quarter by 2060 in most Southern, Central and Eastern European countries as well as in Japan and Korea.

Pension finances deteriorated during the pandemic due to lost contributions, and shortfalls have been mainly covered by state budgets. The report emphasizes the fact that the biggest long-term challenge for pensions continues to be providing financially and socially sustainable pensions in the future. Many countries have introduced automatic adjustment mechanisms (AAM- adjusting retirement ages, benefit levels and contribution rates and using an automatic balancing mechanism) in their pension systems that change pension system parameters, such as pension ages, benefits or contribution rates when demographic, economic or financial indicators change. Putting pensions systems on a solid footing for the future will require painful policy decisions.

Click here to read the full report.

The recent McKinsey American Opportunity Survey (2021) highlights interesting observations about American beliefs on the availability of economic opportunity, obstacles, and the path ahead to create a more inclusive economy. A sample of 25,109 adults aged 18 and older from the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English and Spanish. Excerpts from the report’s findings:

“Americans report that their financial situations have deteriorated over the past year, and at the time of our survey, only half of all respondents reported being able to cover their living expenses for more than two months in the event of job loss. Americans reported facing numerous barriers to economic opportunity and inclusion—among them, inadequate access to health insurance and physical and mental healthcare, as well as to affordable childcare. Moreover, many respondents said that they feel their very identity limits their access to jobs and to fair recognition and reward for their work.

Yet amid the challenges, our survey also revealed optimism. First- and second-generation immigrant respondents were among the most optimistic respondents about economic opportunity. Black and Hispanic/Latino respondents were also among the most optimistic respondents, despite being more likely to report barriers to opportunity.”

Click here to read the full report.