The Unassuming Economist

From the Energy Institute at Haas:

“New research examines the role of individuals versus places in determining household carbon emissions.

The average household in San Francisco emits 36 percent less CO2 from residential and transportation energy use than the average household in Houston. Within the San Francisco Bay Area, the top 10 Census tracts with the highest household carbon emissions emit, on average, 5.6 times more per capita than the 10 lowest emissions Census tracts. Researchers and policy makers have recently highlighted the tremendous spatial variation in household carbon emissions, both within and across cities. See e.g. here and here.

Some of these differences can be explained by household characteristics, such as household size and income; some can be explained by gas versus electric heating or type of automobile. The remaining variation has historically been attributed to characteristics of the places themselves and how various amenities (e.g., climate, density, public transit, walkability) correlate with average carbon footprints.

This spatial variability could present an opportunity – perhaps we can learn from these places with low carbon footprints to better design and implement similar policies and practices nationwide in a quest to decarbonize the US economy.

A new paper by the Energy Institute’s own Eva Lyubich, available here as a new Energy Institute working paper, explores these issues in detail. The starting point of her paper is to recognize that people make choices about where they live, so different types of people live in different types of cities. Some people want to live in cities where they can drive to work, others prefer to commute via public transit or bike or walking. Some people want to live in a 3-bedroom house with a yard and others prefer an apartment building near lots of other people and restaurants. Through this lens, one quickly starts to realize that a lot of the differences we see in household carbon emissions across the US come from a mix of the characteristics of a particular place and the characteristics and preferences of people who choose to live there.”

Continue reading here.

*Note that this post will be updated as links to papers and presentations become available. Last updated: January 9, 2022.

On Covid-19 and health

• Can Stay-at-Home Orders Create a Pandemic Housing Boom? – Paper and Presentation
• How Resilient is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic – Paper and Presentation
• COVID-19, Housing Prices and Macroprudential Policies – Paper and Presentation
• Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-Induced Revaluation of Urban Real Estate – Paper and Presentation 
• The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on New York City Real Estate: First Evidence – Paper and Presentation
• Living On My Own: The Impact of an Epidemic on Housing Preferences – Paper and Presentation
• Cleanliness is Next to Income: The Impact of COVID-19 on Short-Term Rentals – Paper and Presentation
• The Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Those Lacking Housing Basics, 2010-19 – Paper and Presentation
• Marital Transitions, Housing, and Long-Term Care in Old Age – Paper and Presentation
• Stuck at Home: Housing Demand During the COVID-19 Pandemic – Paper and Presentation 
• Housing as a Human Right: Alternative Institutional Structures and Covid-19 – Paper and Presentation
• Racial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic – Paper and Presentation
• COVID-19 Rental Eviction Moratoria and Household Well-Being – Paper and Presentation
• Impact of COVID-19 on Residential Real Estate – Paper and Presentation
• The Effects of Free Housing on Children’s Health and Healthcare Use – Paper and Presentation
• Health Implications of Housing Programs: Evidence from a Population-Wide Weatherization Program – Paper and Presentation 
• The Health Consequence of Rising Housing Prices in China – Paper and Presentation 

On house prices

• Internal Migration and House Prices in Australia – Paper and Presentation
• Old Age Savings and House Price Shocks – Paper and Presentation       
• The Economic Burden of Pension Shortfalls: Evidence from House Prices – Paper and Presentation
• The Effect of School Redistricting on Housing Markets – Paper and Presentation
• Match Quality and House Price Dispersion: Evidence from Norwegian Housing Auctions – Paper and Presentation
• The Effect of School Redistricting on Neighborhood Sorting and House Prices – Paper and Presentation   
• House Prices, Investors, and Credit in the Great Housing Bust  – Paper and Presentation 
• House Price Contagion and United States City Migration Networks – Paper and Presentation 
• Housing Market Segmentation – Paper and Presentation 
• House Prices, Home Equity, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. Census Micro Data – Paper and Presentation
• What Do Hedonic House Price Estimates Tell Us When CAP Rates Vary? – Paper and Presentation

On mortgage market

• Reinforcement Learning for Household Finance: Designing Optimal Policy for Mortgage Market – Paper and Presentation
• Reluctant Savers and Mortgage Subsidies – Paper and Presentation
• The Consumption Response to Borrowing Constraints in the Mortgage Market – Paper and Presentation
• The Industry Expertise Channel of Mortgage Lending – Paper and Presentation
• Can Time‐Varying Risk Premia and Household Heterogeneity Explain Credit Cycles? – Paper and Presentation
• Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy – Paper and Presentation
• Appraisal Inflation and Private Mortgage Securitization – Paper and Presentation
• Opioid Epidemic and Mortgage Default – Paper and Presentation
• The Impact of Interest Rate Declines on Distressed Borrowers: Evidence from the 2000s Housing Bust – Paper and Presentation
• The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth through Amortization – Paper and Presentation
• Mortgage Delinquency and Default: A Tale of Two Options – Paper and Presentation
• Is There Crowd-Out in Mortgage Refinance? – Paper and Presentation
• Do Mortgage Lenders Compete Locally? Implications for Credit Access – Paper and Presentation
• How Costly is Noise? Data and Disparities in the United States Mortgage Market – Paper and Presentation

On rental market

• Are Housing Rental Markets that Competitive? A Dynamic Monopoly Approach – Paper and Presentation
• Objectified Housing Sales and Rent Prices in Representative Household Surveys: the Impact on Macroeconomic Statistics – Paper and Presentation
• Eviction Risk of Rental Housing: Does It Matter How Your Landlord Finances the Property? – Paper and Presentation
• Macroeconomic Statistics based on Surveys: Circumventing Subjectivity in Housing Sales and Rent Data – Paper and Presentation
• Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence – Paper and Presentation

On inequality

• Land Prices and the Persistent Effects of Wealth Inequality – Paper and Presentation
• Racial Disparities in Housing Returns – Paper and Presentation 
• Housing Market Channels of Segregation – Paper and Presentation
• Using High Frequency Evaluations to Estimate Discrimination: Evidence from Mortgage Loan Officers – Paper and Presentation
• Boomtowns: Local Shocks and Inequality in 1920s California – Paper and Presentation
• Do Credit Policies Affect Racial Groups Differently? Evidence from the Mortgage Market – Paper and Presentation 
• The Impact of Federal Housing Policies on Racial Inequality – Paper and Presentation 
• A Field Experiment on Racial Discrimination in the Rental Housing Market of Hawaii – Paper and Presentation 
• The Intergenerational Transmission of Housing Wealth – Paper and Presentation 
• The Impact of Federal Housing Policies on Racial Inequality – Paper and Presentation

On climate change and natural disasters

• Tsunami Risk and Information Shocks: Evidence from the Oregon Housing Market – Paper and Presentation
• Mortgage Markets with Climate-Change Risk: Evidence from Wildfires in California – Paper and Presentation
• Who Benefits from Water Quality Control? The Unequal Impacts of Environmental Regulation on Housing Wealth and Consumption – Paper and Presentation
• Peer Effects in Residential Green Infrastructure Adoption – Paper and Presentation

On housing supply and affordability

• Why Are More Young Adults Living With Their Parents? A role for housing affordability – Paper and Presentation
• How to Reduce Housing Costs? Understanding Local Deterrents to Building Multi-Family Housing – Paper and Presentation
• How to Build Affordable Housing? The Role of Local Barriers to Building Multi-Unit Housing – Paper and Presentation
• Reclaiming Local Control: School Finance Reforms and Housing Supply Restrictions – Paper and Presentation
• Sorting into Neighborhoods: The Role of Minimum Lot Sizes – Paper and Presentation
• Student Housing, Gentrification and Affordability: The US context – Paper and Presentation

On other papers

• The Long-Run Effects of Low-Income Housing on Neighborhood Composition – Paper and Presentation 
• The Housing Phillips Curve – Paper and Presentation 
• Who’s Right, Weber or Glaeser? – Paper and Presentation
• Estimating Housing Rent Depreciation for Inflation Adjustments – Paper and Presentation
• Housing Exclusion in Westchester County, NY – Paper and Presentation
• Who Gains from Housing Market Stimulus? Evidence from Housing Assistance Grants with Threshold Prices – Paper and Presentation
• Overconfidence and Personal Bankruptcy: Evidence from Mispricing in Singapore’s Private Housing Markets – Paper and Presentation 
• Heirs’ Property in an Urban Context – Paper and Presentation 
• Price Diffusion across International Private Commercial Real Estate Markets – Paper and Presentation 
• Corporate Real Estate Holdings, Firm Value, and Returns: Evidence from a Dynamic Partial Adjustment Model – Paper and Presentation 
• Retirement, Housing Mobility, Downsizing and Neighbourhood Quality-A Causal Investigation – Paper and Presentation 
• The Value of School Social Climate Information: Evidence from Chicago Housing Transactions – Paper and Presentation
• The Impact of Public Housing on Student Academic Outcomes – Paper and Presentation
• Does Airbnb Reduce Matching Frictions in the Housing Market? – Paper and Presentation
• The Nexus between Fuel, Income, and Housing Poverty: Evidence from Egypt – Paper and Presentation
• What Determines the Success of Housing Mobility Programs? – Paper and Presentation
• Mandatory Pension Saving and Homeownership – Paper and Presentation 
• Dynastic Home Equity – Paper and Presentation 
• The Amenity Effects of Low-Income Housing Development – Paper and Presentation 
• Decoupling Homes and Schools: Assessing the Impact of Forced School Choice on Residential Change – Paper and Presentation 
• Does Financial Distress Affect Workers’ Productivity? Evidence from Real Estate Agents – Paper and Presentation 
• Impact of Institutional Investors on Real Estate Risk – Paper and Presentation 
• Tax Subsidies and the Cost of Homeownership: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – Paper and Presentation 
• New Listing Alert: Alternative Theory of Housing Search – Paper and Presentation
• Zero Price Effect and Consumer Welfare: Evidence from Online Classified Home Service – Paper and Presentation
• Breaking the Commitment Device: The Effect of Home Equity Withdrawal on Consumption, Saving, and Welfare – Paper and Presentation 

On cross-country:

• Some Economics of Place Effects – Conversable Economist
• A Convenient Representation of the Wealth Distribution and More Evidence on Homeownership and Wealth Inequality in Euro Area Countries – IZA

On the US:   

• Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to Back Home Loans of Nearly $1 Million. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for government backing will jump to $970,800 next year in high-cost markets – Wall Street Journal
• US lifts upper limit on government-backed home mortgages to almost $1m. Value of mortgages for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rises 18% after ‘exceptionally fast’ price increase – FT
• Supply-Chain Woes Snarl Attempts to Tame House Prices.Rising costs of construction materials, labor shortages complicate efforts to cool some of the world’s hottest property markets – Wall Street Journal
• The Housing Gang Is Getting Back Together for Another Bust. Fan and Fred will buy mortgages up to $1 million, repeating the mistakes that led to the 2008 crash. – Wall Street Journal
• Renters strike back as cities cap price hikes by landlords.The revival of rent control policies long derided by economists, including one of President Joe Biden’s top advisers, comes as officials scramble to contain rising prices across a range of goods and services. – Politico
• Racial Discrimination and Housing Outcomes in the United States Rental Market – NBER
• Have More People Moved During the Pandemic? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• An Economy That Works for All: Fostering Low-Income Homeownership – New York Fed
• Individual and Local Effects of Unemployment on Mortgage Defaults – Philadelphia Fed
• Austin’s Texas-Size Luxury Housing Boom. The capital city has one of the hottest high-end real-estate markets in the country, with entry-level list prices for the top 5% of the market hitting $2.34 million in 2021, a rise of nearly 33% over 2020 prices – Wall Street Journal
• Individual and Local Effects of Unemployment on Mortgage Defaults – Philadelphia Fed

On China

• China Home Sales Slump Deepens as Easing Shows Little Effect – Bloomberg
• China Evergrande’s electric-vehicle unit gets US$200 million from returning undeveloped land.The Hong Kong-listed carmaker says the money will be used to fund construction projects and pay wages. Its cash-strapped parent, China Evergrande, is hoping to transform its business focus from property development to car manufacturing – South China Morning Post
• China property bond fears remain as house prices fall. Evergrande’s missed payments have led to a reckoning across the country’s real estate industry – FT
• Even in tech hub Shenzhen, China’s property market succumbs to chills – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Want to solve the housing crisis? Address super-charged demand – The Conversation  
• [Czech Republic] Czech central bank gets tougher in mortgage lending rules amid property boom – Reuters
• [Germany] German banks vulnerable to housing bubble; should build buffers: Bundesbank – Reuters
• [Germany] Price rises in German housing market to ease but affordability worsen – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices ease for 2nd month after record high – Reuters
• [Ireland] Irish house prices undervalued? Shows how misleading stats can be. European Commission report saying houses undervalued relies on outmoded statistics – The Irish Times
• [United Kingdom] Surge in stamp duty refunds on second-home surcharge. Property stock levels decline during the pandemic, say agents – FT
• [United Kingdom] The big picture: the decline and fall of a utopian social housing scheme – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London Housing Market Poised to Lag Behind U.K. Regions in 2022 – Bloomberg

From the IMF’s latest report on Mongolia:

From New Geography:

“The Urban Reform Institute has published the 2021 edition of Demographia United States Housing Affordability, which rates middle-income housing affordability in the third quarter 2020. Demographia United States Housing Affordability is a supplement to Demographia International Housing Affordability, which covers 92 major housing markets (1,000,000 or more population) in 8 nations (Australia, Canada, China [Hong Kong only], Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States). The Demographia United States Housing Affordability provides ratings in 188 markets, including the 56 major metropolitan areas included in the earlier report.

Over the past year, housing affordability has deteriorated. Urban Reform Institute President Charles Blain noted: “It is not surprising that housing affordability — given the large influx of new buyers, particularly in suburban and outlying areas — has continued to deteriorate. As a result, many low-income and middle-income households who already have suffered the worst consequences from housing inflation will see their standards of living further decline.”

Rating Housing Affordability (The Median Multiple)

Demographia rates middle-income housing affordability in four categories, ranging from the most affordable (“affordable”) to the least affordable (“severely unaffordable”), as is indicated in Figure 1. As late as the 1990s price-to-income ratios were at or below 3.0 in Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, in markets rated “affordable. Since then, there has been a substantial divergence in affordability between major markets, which research has associated with stronger land use regulation (especially urban containment). The range between least affordable and most affordable markets rose by more than four times from 1969 to 2020 (Figure 2).”

Continue reading here.