The Unassuming Economist

“Housing markets strong with signs of overvaluation to differing degrees. After a brief pause, Canada’s housing market rebounded in 2014, fueled by low and declining interest rates (…). House prices have been rising at 5–6 percent (y/y) nominally through most of 2014 (almost twice the average pace in 2013). Most of the appreciation has been driven by Calgary’s housing market and single-family homes in Toronto and Vancouver (…). Since 2001, house prices have risen significantly—similar to other Commonwealth commodity-exporter countries— though Canada’s cycle seems to be lagging and relatively smoother. Read the full article…

“Property values are up sharply, though valuation risks are not yet evident, and mortgage lending is beginning to rise from a low base. National housing prices rose 16.3 percent y/y in October, with Dublin prices surging 24.2 percent y/y, though they remain 38 percent below their pre crisis peak. New mortgage loans grew about 50 percent y/y in Q3 2014, from a low base, with about half of all residential property transactions in cash. Residential rents are also rising, and house price ratios to rents and incomes do not yet signal valuation concerns. Read the full article…

Here is my presentation on the IMF’s Global Housing Watch and the state of housing markets across the globe that I gave at the International Housing Association Conference. Also, see country specific presentations that were given by other participants at the conference: Australia, Canada, Japan, Nigeria, Norway, and the United States. And here is the link to the agenda.  Read the full article…

A new report by the IMF “(…) examines the experiences of Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain—four countries in which the house-price cycle has been especially large and that share a similar institutional environment (a common monetary policy and the EU’s institutional framework)—with a view to exploring how policies can best support economic recovery in the wake of a house-price bust. (…) These countries’ experiences share similarities, but also important differences. Shocks to house prices, unemployment, Read the full article…

“Despite an overall positive outlook, there are several key macroeconomic vulnerabilities that would impact the financial sector: (…) Sudden decline in asset prices. As more than half of domestic private credit is backed by real estate, continued increases in real estate prices toward the pre-collapse level in 2008 could become a source of vulnerability,” says a new IMF report on Georgia.

Read the full article…