The Unassuming Economist

“Real estate remains dynamic. Real mortgage credit expanded by 9 percent (y/y) in April, and house prices, following some deceleration, are rising again though with large regional variation,” says the IMF’s annual economic report on Chile. 

Moreover, in terms of real estate exposure, the report says that “Mortgage loans represent about one-quarter of banks’ loan portfolio and the share of mortgages with elevated (80 percent or higher) loan-to-value (LTV) ratios has stabilized at a relatively high 60 percent. Prompt implementation of regulation underway linking mortgage credit provisioning to LTV levels would be important, and further action (hard limits on LTVs and debt-to-income ratios) might need to be considered. The mission also encouraged the authorities to address real estate data gaps, in particular for commercial real estate.”

“After several years of stagnation, German housing prices have been picking up, especially in large cities. They have increased by 18 percent in nominal terms since the trough of 2009:Q2 (Figure 1). Recent housing price inflation has been stronger in the largest cities, in particular Hamburg and Munich where the appreciation since early 2009 has been greater than 50 percent in the apartments segment. Simple valuation measures such as price-to-disposable-income-per-capita and price-to-rent ratios have remained almost flat, except in a few hot spots where an upward trend is evident (Steininger, 2014). Analysis by the Bundesbank suggests that housing prices in Germany as a whole are currently close to their fundamental value, but that apartment prices in large cities may be overvalued by about 25 percent (Bundesbank, 2014),” according to a new IMF report on Germany. 

House prices are starting to rise in Iceland, according to a new report by the IMF. 

“House prices dropped by a third and the correction continues,” says the latest IMF’s economic report on Spain.

“(…) residential property prices in Dubai have been increasing quickly, though the momentum appears to have slowed in recent months. Some data sources suggest that Dubai’s residential sale prices have already reached their previous peak in nominal terms. The recovery in Abu Dhabi’s residential market has started much later than in Dubai and the price level is still well below its peak, says the IMF’s new economic report on United Arab Emirates.