The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Housing costs making UK households much poorer than US peers, study finds. Report says wealth gap would be wider if not for over-priced or ineffective services such as healthcare in US – The Guardian
• Global Residential Update – Knight Frank

Conference/Working Papers

• Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership – IDEAS
• Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve – Richmond Fed
• Monetary policy transmission with adjustable and fixed rate mortgages: The role of credit supply – VoxEU 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro – Dallas Fed
• The “New Normal” Mortgage Rate Range – Calculated Risk
• Gen Z’s Housing Anguish. To afford rent, young American adults are making tough choices. – New York Times
• Builder Confidence Falls on Rising Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• US Housing Affordability Hits Worst Point in Nearly Four Decades. A surge in borrowing costs is making home purchases more expensive with little relief in sight. – Bloomberg
• US housing starts surge in boost to economy – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift – Calculated Risk
• 2023 Q2 Cross-Market Demand Report: A Growing Number of Home Shoppers Are Looking for Homes in Other Markets – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Local Market Data Suggests July Sales Rate Close to June Sales Rate – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August – Calculated Risk
• July Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Increased to 1.452 million Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
• US homebuilders defy interest rate rise as Buffett buys in. New construction makes up 30% of market with current homeowners clinging to cheaper mortgages – FT
• Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market – Fortune
• CoreLogic: US Home Investor Share Remained High in Early Summer 2023 – Calculated Risk
• US housing market in gridlock, with risks emerging – ING
• Why Wall Street is Gung-ho on the Housing Market. Despite mortgage rates hitting multidecade highs and jitters in the bond market, demand for new homes is strong and prices are rising. – New York Times  

On China:

• China’s deepening property crisis threatens trouble. Country Garden is on the edge of default. What would a worst-case scenario look like? – The Economist
• China Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace as Downturn Worsens. Second month of declines adds to evidence of weaker market. Government is trying to rekindle demand in housing sector – Bloomberg
• China’s Housing Slump Is Much Worse Than Official Data Shows. Property values show variance between agents, official data. Uncertainty over data could have implications for policy – Bloomberg
• China’s housing market is . . . not good. How long until it bans property data releases as well? – FT
• China’s Economic Woes Deepen With Housing Market Slump – Bloomberg
• Contagion fears spread as China property sector cash crunch intensifies – Reuters
• China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China drop after developer Country Garden flags more debt problems – Wall Street Journal  
• The moment of reckoning looms large for China’s property market as crisis deepens. There are signs China’s real estate party is coming to an end, and the moment of reckoning is looming large for property developers, homeowners and the government. China’s move to allow home ownership in the late 1990s unleashed a spectacular property market boom, leading to phenomenal wealth creation – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian PM Offers Cash to States to Help Ease Housing Crisis. Rents recorded biggest increase in 14 years in second quarter. Government’s signature housing laws remain stuck in the Senate – Bloomberg
• [Australia] National cabinet agrees to build 1.2m new homes in bid to tackle housing crisis. Albanese announces ‘new home bonus’ of up to $3bn for states and territories but continues to reject Greens calls for rent freeze – The Guardian
• [Australia] Back yard blitz: are Australia’s heritage laws thwarting housing density? Urban density advocates say heritage laws are being weaponised to constrain development at a time of housing crisis, but experts say the two can live side by side – The Guardian
• [Australia] The regional housing markets where prices are set to surge – Financial Review
• [Korea] South Korea house prices snap 13 months of decline – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge higher, buyers returning to market – Reinz – New Straits Times 
• [Sweden] Swedes Signal Optimism on Home Prices for Third Straight Month – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Sweden’s Depressed Housing Starts Exacerbate Shortage of Homes. Dwelling component of Byggfakta indicator is at nine-year low. Decline in home construction follows housing market slump – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Housing Boom Starts to Spread to the City’s Outskirts. Apartment prices rise at record pace amid strong demand. Demand rises in secondary districts where values had lagged – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] The UK Housing Market Hangs in the Balance – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Global Home Prices Reveal Interest-Rate Pain Ripe for FX Traders. Weak housing markets may spur premature end to hiking cycles. Strategists see pain for Swedish, New Zealand currencies ahead – Bloomberg
• Recovery? Crisis? Where you stand on the state of housing markets depends on where you sit. Housing prices are rising in several countries, even those with high levels of household debt and large proportions of floating rate mortgages. However, the persistence of acute vulnerabilities means global property markets will continue to emit mixed signals and perception depends on one’s stake – South China Morning Post

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• How High Mortgage Rates Fuel Inflation. It’s costlier to move, so fewer houses are on the market. Less supply means higher prices and rents. – Wall Street Journal
• The impact of 7% Mortgage Rates – Calculated Risk
• Home-equity loans make a comeback. Mortgage tool led to risks before the financial crisis but it is now increasing in demand again – FT
• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Month-to-month to New Record High in June. “Pretty safe bet” that now is the “worst affordable market” – Calculated Risk
• Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed? – San Francisco Fed
• Rising Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Put a Damper on Housing Affordability – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• Our Carrie Bradshaw index calculates where Americans can afford to live alone. In many cities even the most basic apartments are unaffordable – The Economist
• Meet America’s disguised property investors. They do not live in the homes they have bet on. Can they live with the bets they have made? – The Economist
• Converting Brown Offices to Green Apartments – NBER
• July 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Real Estate Helped Drive Wealth Gains during the Pandemic – St. Louis Fed
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down Less YoY in July than in June NSA – Calculated Risk
• Atlanta Fed: Home Ownership Affordability Monitor – Calculated Risk
• The Average American Homeowner Has Nearly $200,000 in Home Equity, Thanks to Rising House Prices – Realtor.com
• The Anti-California, How Montana performed a housing miracle – The Atlantic
• First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing. The Minneapolis area has seen an increase in rental units, thanks to a regional effort that included new zoning rules. – Bloomberg  

On China:

• Another Big Chinese Property Domino Is Wobbling. Bonds of Country Garden, China’s largest developer by contracted sales, have been in free fall – The Guardian
• How social housing could get China’s economy and population growing again. Policymakers have enacted easing measures for the property sector, but the impact is likely to be limited and fail to address the underlying causes. Looking to the Singapore model of social housing could be the best way to get China back on track – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Denmark] House Prices in Denmark Rise as Wages Go Up And Interest Rates Stabilize. House prices are up 4% since February following big slump. Denmark set to avoid same decline seen in neighboring Sweden – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong: cheaper homes show city is Central no more. Property market slump in mainland China is partly to blame and locals are in no position to pick up the slack – FT
• [United Kingdom] Housebuilders: rate rises hit profits like a ton of bricks. Yet Taylor Wimpey’s share price is up, despite a fall in pre-tax profits – FT
• [United Kingdom] Lenders cut mortgage rates despite latest BoE rate rise. Pain of higher interest rates is having an uneven effect on the housing market that looks set to persist – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for fourth consecutive month, Halifax figures show. Property market displays resilience in face of sharp rise in interest rates with modest declines – FT
• [United Kingdom] Four large UK lenders announce mortgage rate cuts. Reductions by Nationwide, HSBC, TSB and Halifax come as competition in home loan market intensifies – FT

Conference

• CALL FOR PAPERS — 2024 Conference on Low-Income Housing Supply and Housing Affordability – AREUEA

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.4% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations – NBER
• Rate-Locked Homeowners Nearly Twice as Likely to Not Consider Selling. A recent Zillow survey found that homeowners who report buying their home at lower mortgage rates are less likely to sell their home and move. – Zillow
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June to New High; Up 1.7% Year-over-year. Boise leads Cities with 11.7% decline from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2024? – Calculated Risk
• Unaffordable Prices & Bidding Wars Hold Buyers Back – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• How to nudge Americans to reduce their housing exposure to climate risks – Brookings
• Home Insurers Are Charging More and Insuring Less. Industry tries to rebound from years of losses owing to storms, fires and inflation – Wall Street Journal
• Lots of US Homeowners Want to Move. They Just Have Nowhere to Go. Locked into cheaper borrowing costs and unable to find a new place that fits their budgets, countless people are opting to remain in their current homes, adding to an acute shortage of available properties. – Bloomberg
• US Homeowner Equity Climbs to a Record High – Bloomberg 
• Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces Actions to Lower Housing Costs and Boost Supply – White House
• Housing Affordability Expectations Slide Back, Again – NAHB 
• Some Buyers Remain Engaged, Despite Lower Affordability – NAHB
• Majority of Americans prefer a community with big houses, even if local amenities are farther away – Pew Research Center

On China:

• Top China Housing Official Urges Fresh Property Aid Efforts. China’s housing minister met with developers amid downturn. Beijing has pressed lenders to help builders complete projects – Bloomberg
• China has to stabilize its housing market and address risks to its economy if it wants to avoid ‘Japanification’, JPMorgan says – Business Insider
• China’s Housing Ministry Urges More Property Rescue Efforts – Wall Street Journal
• Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou officials vow support for China’s struggling property market, stocks surge. Authorities in Beijing and Shenzhen to ‘satisfy the rigid demand and improvement demand for housing’ and help ‘stabilised and healthy development’ of housing market. Local newspaper reports say Guangzhou Municipal Commission of Housing will soon roll out loosening measures – South China Morning Post
• China’s property problems appear poised to improve, but can ‘much more risky’ real estate still drive economic growth? Beijing vows restrictive property policies will be further relaxed, but investors do not seem to have the same speculative mentality they used to. Some analysts say the property sector cannot be the ‘old growth driver’ it once was, while others say it will nonetheless remain a critical pillar of the economy – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian house prices look set to rise despite the rate hikes. This isn’t great given how expensive they already are. Existing mortgage holders are likely to be spared more interest rate rises after the latest RBA meeting, but first home buyers will find the task ever more difficult – The Guardian
• [Canada] Soaring Housing Costs Threaten Political Consequences for Trudeau. Canada’s benchmark house price has doubled since 2013. Immigrants arriving outpace housing units started by 4.5 times – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property prices have room to fall before mortgage peak heralds return of buy-to-let investors. Commercial banks raised mortgage rates for the second time this year as the city’s cost of money rose to the highest level since December 2007. More than half of property sales are to investors who use debt to part finance their purchases and costly debt keeps them away – South China Morning Post
• [Singapore] How to Singapore Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Three Years. Final government figures confirm first drop since early 2020. Tax hikes, high interest rates contributed to slowdown – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] How the ghost of the 1990s property crash returned to haunt Sweden – Reuters
• [Sweden] Sweden House Prices Eke Out Gain, Defying Higher Borrowing Costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How UK house prices left the middle class behind. New data confirms that unaffordability is entrenched, with almost all housing now the preserve of the rich – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Falling mortgage rates usher borrowers towards shorter-term deals. Many lenders are trimming rates — though not all – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals rise unexpectedly. Increase comes despite BoE raising interest rates sharply to 5% – FT  
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009 after interest rate rises. Nationwide says cost of a typical home is £260,828 after 3.8% year-on-year drop in July – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• 3rd Workshop on Rent Control on June 22 and 23, 2023 – DIW Berlin
• Africa’s housing crisis: developers seek to scale solutions. Africa’s enormous housing shortage has few easy answers. Can innovative construction methods help, or does everything come back to finance? – African Business

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Home Prices in US Rise for Fourth Month With Inventory Tight. Data bolsters case that January was final month of declines. ‘Strength’ of May data bodes well for future, Lazzara says – Bloomberg
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – July 2023 – Freddie Mac
• How The Housing Bears Got the Last Year All Wrong. The huge mortgage shock didn’t hurt prices and there still aren’t any homes for sale. – Bloomberg
• US consumer confidence races to two-year high; house prices rising – Reuters
• Interest for New Homes Strengthens – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing-Market Rebound Poses Challenge for Fed’s Inflation Fight. Demand for homes continues to outpace supply, lifting prices. More stubborn inflation could require higher rates for longer – Bloomberg
• Robert Shiller—who called the 2008 housing bubble—thinks he knows how the housing market will exit its latest period of exuberance – Fortune
• Why We May Be About to See the Shortest Housing Cycle Ever. How long can house prices withstand the gravity of higher rates? – Bloomberg 
• Housing Demand Slows on Higher Rates and Prices – NAHB
• Foreclosure Rates Are Surging: These 10 U.S. Cities Are Where They’re Up the Most – Realtor
• Housing-Market Rebound Poses Challenge for Fed’s Inflation Fight. Demand for homes continues to outpace supply, lifting prices. More stubborn inflation could require higher rates for longer – Bloomberg
• Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in June. CoreLogic: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in May – Calculated Risk

On China:

• China Holds Off on Major Stimulus as It Signals Property Easing. Politburo promises ‘counter-cyclical’ policy in July meeting. Readout doesn’t include big fiscal, monetary policy loosening – Bloomberg
• China property giants tumble as cash crunch bites – Reuters
• Is China property for speculating? Xi’s Politburo lets real estate off leash after 6 long years. Real estate policies across China will be adjusted faster to help nation cope with ‘setbacks’ from the ebb and flow of economic development in a post-Covid climate. For years, President Xi Jinping said houses were for living in, not speculating – but the Politburo made no mention of that on Monday – South China Morning Post
• China Property Woes Causing ‘Downward Spiral,’ BofA Says – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] How to Fight Inflation When Consumers Think Home Prices Can Only Go Up. The Bank of Canada is running up against optimistic homebuyers in its efforts to tame inflation, offering a glimpse of what might be in store for central banks around the world. – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Why the hot Canadian housing market keeps rising. A game of chicken between central bankers and consumers is playing out in one of the hottest housing markets in the world. – Financial Review
• [United Kingdom] Sunak tilts housing drive to inner cities to meet 1mn new homes pledge. Gove is set to cut red tape as PM insists target will not be met ‘by concreting over the countryside’ – FT
• [United Kingdom] Be angry about the rigged housing market. The UK property market is stacked against parents trapped in rented accommodation, says Karen Murphy – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Bomadland: How the Bank of Mum and Dad helps kids buy homes – Bank of England
• [United Kingdom] Generation Rent is at the sharp end of rate rises. Landlords with buy-to-rent mortgages are passing on their pain – FT
• [United Kingdom] The answer to Britain’s housing crisis lies in its towns and cities – not the countryside. The Conservatives are right about making urban areas denser, but their proposed planning reform is an undemocratic mess – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Number in temporary housing in England hits 25-year high. Homelessness rising sharply as rental and mortgage costs soar, official figures show – FT
• [United Kingdom] Higher mortgage costs threaten surge of UK buy-to-let property sales. Landlords look to get rid of financial ‘headache’ by exiting rental market, further depressing the housing market – FT

On cross-country:

• The housing supply problem. A four-part series on housing affordability in the UK and US – FT
• The Global Housing Inspection Report – 2023 Edition – Seeking Alpha
• How to reduce the damage done by gentrification. We cannot let our cities descend into islands of privilege amid seas of disadvantage. With the right policies and investments, a better future is possible – The Guardian

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The 30-Year Mortgage Is Saving the US Economy … or Is It? Long-term fixed-rate home loans help keep the housing market from collapse, but they make the overall economy less dynamic. – Bloomberg
• Higher Interest Rates Hit Home Prices Again. U.S. existing-home prices fell in May from a year earlier by the most in more than 11 years – Wall Street Journal
• Fraudulent Covid Aid Drove Up U.S. House Prices, Report Says. Researchers found that people who defrauded the government for pandemic relief poured money into housing markets, driving inflation in some areas – Wall Street Journal
• Small Mortgages Are Too Hard to Get. A shortage of loans for homes priced below $150,000 bars many American families from homeownership – Pew Charitable Trusts
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Decreased 0.2% year-over-year in April. “U.S. house prices rose in April, up 0.7 percent from March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®).” – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.4% below recent peak – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• What Is Happening in the Housing Market? Home construction surged in May and prices have ticked up, even with interest rates at a 15-year high. The resilience has surprised some economists. – New York Times
• Only Zoning Reform Can Solve America’s Housing Crisis. By making it impossible to build enough homes in places where people want to live, local governments hurt the economy and democracy. – Wall Street Journal
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Home Builders Learn to Love High Rates. Low supply of homes is giving builders ample reason to step up construction, despite high interest rates – Wall Street Journal
• Buying a home in the US is expensive – and that isn’t changing anytime soon. Even if there are fewer home buyers and prices have been falling slightly, they’re still much higher than pre-pandemic and for many, more unaffordable than ever – The Guardian
• US existing home sales edge up but prices drop by most since 2011 – Reuters
• Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in May: Single Family Declined, Multi-Family Increased – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales increase to 763,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 16.2% from the Peak – Calculated Risk

On China:

• How to escape China’s property crisis. Lessons from a city that is flourishing – The Economist

On other countries:  

• [Germany] German house prices fall by record 6.8% as higher mortgage costs deter buyers. First-quarter drop in Europe’s largest property market is biggest since index began in 2000 – FT
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong may relax mortgage loan-to-value ratios amid sluggish property market: Financial Secretary Paul Chan. The government, along with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, will balance financial stability and the interests of first-time buyers, Paul Chan says. Chan’s comments come as Hong Kong’s residential market is showing fresh signs of weakness after a short-lived rebound in the first quarter – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] Irish Home Prices Post First Year-on-Year Decline Since 2020. Average prices slip 0.5% in the second quarter from a year ago. Once-hot market still on edge after quarterly gain of 2.4% – Bloomberg   
• [Ireland] Strong Irish mortgage market unmoved by higher interest rates – Reuters
• [Turkey] Turkish property prices are soaring. A crazy interest-rate policy is mostly to blame – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] The Bank of England Owes Mortgage Payers a Big Apology. UK living standards are being hit by 8.7% CPI and 6% mortgage rates. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] The Guardian view on mortgages: the crunch is coming. Westminster is forever blowing property bubbles. What happens when they burst? – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Making downsizing easier could help Britain’s housing crisis. Shuffling the pack by liberating under-occupied homes will have a bigger impact than building new ones – FT
• [United Kingdom] The UK mortgage market may need an overhaul, not handouts. There need to be longer-term questions about the peculiarities of housing borrowing in Britain – FT
• [United Kingdom] Young adults pay heaviest price for Britain’s exploding mortgage timebomb. Rising interest rates expose widening generational gulf, with millennials facing large increases in monthly payments – FT 
• [United Kingdom] Have We Reached the Tipping Point for UK House Prices? As mortgage rates rise, the most vulnerable areas are also the most expensive. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why higher rates risk reigniting intergenerational conflict. A cohort of people in their mid-30s have probably been pummelled twice by monetary policy over the past decade – FT
• [United Kingdom] Cut Stamp Duty to fight inflation and expand housing supply. – IEA