Housing View – May 10, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Global Housing Shortages Are Crushing Immigration-Fueled Growth. Households go backwards in 13 developed economies as record immigration runs into a housing crisis. – Bloomberg
  • Rents Set to Be Last Domino to Fall in Global Inflation Battle. Immigration and housing shortages fuel rents in Australia, UK. Sticky inflation prevents central banks from cutting rates – Bloomberg
  • With China’s Property Market Struggling, India, Korea and Vietnam Are Hot. Rents in cities across Asia are rising fast as multinationals shift away from the mainland. – Bloomberg
  • Fix Europe’s housing crisis or risk fuelling the far-right, UN expert warns. Unaffordable rents and property prices risk becoming a key political battleground across the continent – The Guardian
  • Higher costs and cramped conditions: the impact of Europe’s housing crisis. Affording a home has become a political issue as rents and prices soar and supply plummets – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

  • Estimating the importance of monetary policy shocks for variation in the U.S. homeownership rate – FED
  • Mortgage Rate Lock‑In and Homeowners’ Moving Plans – New York Fed
  • How Are They Now? A Checkup on Homeowners Who Experienced Foreclosure – New York Fed
  • Owner-occupied housing costs, policy communication, and inflation expectations – National Bank of Belgium
  • The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model – Bank of England
  • Discrimination Against Housing Vouchers: Evidence from Online Rental Listings – SSRN
  • Total Returns to Residential Rental Housings – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Housing Price Growth Expectations Increase; Renters Express Concern for Ability to Own a Home – New York Fed
  • Housing Market Update: For the First Time in Nearly 2 Years, There’s No Major American Metro Where Home Prices Are Falling – Redfin
  • This Popular Spot for Homebuyers Has Nearly 57% of the U.S. Housing Inventory—and It’s Affordable – Realtor.com
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
  • The mortgage reform that could unleash the next big US stimulus. Freddie Mac wants to enter the secondary home equity loan market in a win-win for the government, Wall Street and consumers – FT
  • Housing market inventory is shifting. Here’s what the data shows. The housing market saw a 30% increase in active inventory in April, but that’s still 35% below pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
  • US Home Price Insights – May 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Mortgage Activity Remains Lower Midway Through Spring Buying Season – NAHB
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales might be up slightly Year-over-year – Calculated Risk 
  • Homeowners are getting rich. Renters? Not so much – Axios
  • ‘Seriously Underwater’ Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US. Southern states see jump in share of very underwater homes. A dozen states have at least 2,500 more than last year: ATTOM – Bloomberg

On the US—other developments:    

  • The US housing ‘lock-in effect’ –quantified. And can US mortgages be made portable or assumable? – FT
  • Wealthy Homeowners Aren’t Selling. A Look at the Tightest Luxury Markets. A supply crunch is affecting markets across the country, as the mortgage rate lock-in takes control of the high end – Wall Street Journal
  • Want to Reduce the Cost of Housing? Build More of It. Everyone agrees that the rent (or the mortgage) is too high, but the best ways to make it more affordable aren’t very popular. – Bloomberg
  • Affordable Housing Won’t Come From Bullying the Fed. Democrats who want to coerce the central bank into lowering rates to ease mortgage costs are asking for trouble. – Bloomberg
  • How Immigration Restrictions Reduce Housing Construction and Exacerbate Shortages. A new study shows deportation of undocumented migrants reduces housing construction by diminishing the supply of workers needed to do it. – Reason
  • Rent Control Remains the Wrong Solution to Housing Woes. Restricting the price of housing kills incentives to supply places to live. – Reason
  • Housing Deregulation as Poverty Policy – Cato
  • How the NAR settlement impacts real estate in D.C. – Axios
  • Return of the Housing Godzillas. Freddie Mac and its Biden regulator want to guarantee second mortgages. What could possibly go wrong? – Wall Street Journal
  • Residential Building Wages Continued to Rise – NAHB
  • April 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • It Really Is ‘Almost Impossible’ for New Homebuyers – Bloomberg
  • CoreLogic Southern California Housing Market Update: May 2024 – CoreLogic 
  • Housing Sentiment Again Shows Signs of Plateauing – Fannie Mae
  • FACT SHEET: Vice President Harris Announces $5.5 Billion to Boost Affordable Housing, Invest in Economic Growth, Build Wealth, and Address Homelessness in Communities Throughout America – The White House
  • It’s Budget Season in Philadelphia. How Will the New Administration Choose to Fund Its Housing Priorities? Local dollars, partnerships, and evaluation needed to advance the city’s housing agenda – Pew 

On China:

  • Chinese homebuyers favour ‘second-hand’ houses as property crisis bites. With tens of thousands of new developments yet to be completed, buyers are looking again at older buildings – FT
  • China’s Economic Bump Fades but Not Worry Over Jobs and Property Prices – Barron’s
  • Chinese megacity Hangzhou, home to Alibaba, lifts all home purchase curbs – The Straits Times 

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s housing crisis to worsen with ‘significant shortfall in supply’, Labor’s expert council says. Report predicts numerous factors, including migration, mean housing affordability and inequality, will continue to deteriorate – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australia’s Housing Rent Hits Record High in Headache for RBA – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia’s Housing Rent Hits Record High in Headache for RBA. Data add to evidence that price pressures remain stubborn. New households due to migration outpacing supply of dwellings – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] The Reserve Bank’s bleak news on housing. The RBA is concerned that housing supply continues to fall short of underlying demand, which is keeping upward pressure on house prices and rents. – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Pace of house price growth to cool as risks emerge – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Key Toronto Homebuying Season Turns in Buyers’ Favor This Year. Number of properties put up for sale soars from year ago. Many would-be buyers may wait for BOC rate cuts, Pearce says – Bloomberg
  • [Germany] GREIX Q1 2024: Real estate prices volatile, number of transactions low – KIEL
  • [Hong Kong] The painful slump in Hong Kong property. Prices and rents have fallen amid higher interest rates and a slowdown in China. Some experts warn that recovery could be elusive – FT
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong authorities urged to focus on quality over quantity of public housing flats. Our Hong Kong Foundation think tank expects government will meet public housing supply goal as an average of 35,000 flats set to be completed annually over next five years. ‘We can see that we are entering a ‘harvest phase’ in land supply in the next few years, hence the prospects of [housing] supply will continue to improve,’ think tank’s vice-president says – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property: mainland Chinese buyers snapping up 8 out of 10 new homes in some sales, agents say. Mainland Chinese buyers account for anywhere from 30 per cent up to 80 per cent of the sales in some recent launches, according to agents. The strong return of mainland Chinese buyers is boosting hopes of price stability in the residential property market – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property: most middle-income households see prices rising now restrictions are in the past, Citibank survey finds. Most respondents considered the dropping of stamp duties to be the most important of the moves to stir the market. Citibank itself forecasts a 10 per cent drop in home prices this year because of high interest rates and inventories – South China Morning Post
  • [Germany] German Residential Real Estate Recovery Remains Elusive. Apartment valuations fell, single-family home prices were flat. Multi-family home prices slid 10.5% in first months of 2024 – Bloomberg
  • [Mexico] Improving housing and urban development policies in Mexico – OECD
  • [United Kingdom] Number of new homes in England predicted to drop to half of official target. Savills calls on government to take action to boost housebuilding – FT
  • [United Kingdom] United Kingdom’s housing market woes persist – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Stagnate in April as Mortgage Costs Climb. Halifax says prices up just 0.1% compared to a month earlier. Market bets on delayed start to BOE rate cuts hamper market – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Arrears Rise as Borrowing Rates Squeeze Homeowners. Loans in arrears climbed 3% in the three months through March. Homeowners behind on payments up 26% from a year earlier – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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