Housing View – May 31, 2024

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2023 – BIS
  • Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
  • Is your rent ever going to fall? Too often politicians tout awful solutions for helping tenants – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

  • 2024 AREUEA National Conference on May 29 – AREUEA
  • Inflation and the Housing Market. Professor Susan Wachter looks at ongoing issues in the housing market and how they connect to inflation. – Wharton
  • Persistence of house-price growth highlights geographic, credit factors – Dallas Fed
  • Houston, you have a problem: How large cities accommodate more housing – Real Estate Economics
  • Tracking Our Footprint: CO2 Emissions from US Single-Family Homes – FHFA
  • Housing Price Volatility in China: A Pervasive Pattern with Geographic Disparity – SSRN
  • Up or Out: The Effects of Washington, DC’s Height of Buildings Act – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Mortgages Stuck Around 7% Force Rapid Rethink of American Dream. Rates have defied expectations to come down, upending major life plans in the process. – Bloomberg
  • US Mortgage Rates at 7% Reshape Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • ‘Not Gonna Be Pretty:’ Covid-Era Homebuyers Face Huge Rate Jump. Adjustable-rate mortgages are due to reset for many borrowers. Some 70% of holders are worried about payments, survey finds – Bloomberg 
  • US labor market remains strong; housing market losing momentum – Reuters
  • Home prices stay elevated as inventory lags: Redfin – Yahoo Finance
  • Watch Months-of-Supply! – Calculated Risk
  • Why a California Plan to Build More Homes Is Failing. Only a few dozen people have built housing under a law allowing them to construct duplexes alongside single-family houses – Wall Street Journal
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.5% year-over-year in March. FHFA: House Prices Increased 0.1% in March, up 6.6% YoY – Calculated Risk
  • Home Price Growth Slows in March – NAHB
  • Home Prices Just Hit a New Record High, and These Cities Are Leading the Pack – Realtor.com
  • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index—Home Prices 6.5% in March – Realtor.com
  • US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Annual Growth Flattens at 6.5% in March, While Seasonal Price Gains Surge. Monthly appreciation in March continued to heat up beyond the typical seasonal uptick, pushing prices up by 1.3% – CoreLogic
  • April 2024 Rental Report: Median Asking Rents Continue To Drop – Realtor.com
  • Skyrocketing rents and home prices may be pivotal in the 2024 election. Skyrocketing rents and home prices are a dire issue for voters in swing states. – Washington Post
  • Mortgage applications dropped as the housing market keeps getting uglier. Mortgage rates ticked up again last week, putting a damper on refinancing and purchase applications – Quartz

On the US—other developments:    

  • US Housing Outlook: Recovery Continues – Apollo
  • A New Age of Construction Materials. Meet the companies pioneering new construction materials promising benefits on cost, climate, and capabilities – Thesis Driven
  • Thousands Of U.S. Homes Foreclosed In April As Market Shows Mixed Recovery Signs – Yahoo Finance
  • Secret #10 – The Economics of Houses are Different Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #11 – The Supply of Houses Grows More Slowly than the Supply of Gold – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #14 – Higher House Prices Can INCREASE Current Demand. The Ignored Economic Fundamental – Price Expectations – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #15 – More Reasons Why House Prices Can Increase Surprisingly Fast – Real Estate Decoded
  • The Week in Review. Week of May 20th — Sales Stumble, Tennis Tribulations – Home Economics
  • Black mortgage applicants are denied more than twice as much as white applicants. 24% of applications from Black borrowers are denied, a Zillow report found – Quartz

On China:

  • China Has a Plan for Its Housing Crisis. Here’s Why It’s Not Enough. A new approach by China’s top leaders is bold but pales against the problem: a vast number of empty apartments no one wants to buy. – New York Times
  • China’s middle class still jittery about spending – especially on property, survey finds – South China Morning Post
  • China’s property stimulus raises risks for banks in smaller cities, S&P Global says – Reuters
  • China’s Property Rescue to Deliver Modest GDP Boost, Survey Shows. Seven of 12 economists see up to 0.3 ppt growth lift this year. Analysts expect cut to reserve requirement ratio by end-June – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] House prices and rents hit record highs in regional Australia – rising faster than in capital cities. Batemans Bay, Bunbury and the Sunshine Coast post biggest quarterly rental increases – The Guardian
  • [Indonesia] Insights into Indonesia’s Premium Residential Market: Trends and Opportunities – Knight Frank
  • [New Zealand] House prices won’t return to 2021 peak until after 2029, forecaster says – RNZ
  • [New Zealand] RBNZ to Introduce Mortgage Lending Restrictions as Debt, Home Prices Climb. The policy is aimed at ensuring that house prices remain at sustainable levels – Wall Street Journal
  • [Portugal] Portugal’s house price growth continues, despite weak demand – Global Property Guide
  • [Singapore] The Architect Who Made Singapore’s Public Housing the Envy of the World. With a focus on affordability, community, convenience and light, Liu Thai Ker replaced squalid slums with spacious high-rises. A recent spike in some sale prices, however, has saddened him. – New York Times
  • [Spain] Britain’s Madrid Leads European House Price Gains With Double-Digit Surge. Prices jumped almost 11% in April compared with a year earlier. Property shortage is particularly acute in the Spanish city – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] Spain’s dysfunctional housing market finally offers some opportunity. People desire homes but financing conditions are stunting demand and supply – FT
  • [South Africa] ‘People have died on the waiting lists’: South Africa’s housing crisis casts a shadow over election. The hopes raised by the ANC coming to power in 1994 have, 30 years on, been dashed for millions still without a decent roof over their heads – The Guardian
  • [United Arab Emirates] UAE’s housing market growth accelerating – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] House price growth in rural areas outstrips towns in Great Britain. Countryside semis are strongest-performing property type, with average price up 22% over five years – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Rent controls will not fix Britain’s housing crisis. Addressing property taxes that favour owner-occupation would be more productive – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Airbnb and Booking.com allowing illegal social housing sublets, say English councils. Social housing providers claim platforms are refusing to cooperate with requests to remove illegally listed holiday lets – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Homeownership for Young Britons Rebounds to Highest Since 2010. IFS analysis shows 6 percentage-point recovery since 2015. But ownership rates still well below those at start of century – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Homeownership for young adults has recovered to its 2010 level – Institute for Fiscal Studies
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing and Mortgage Affordability Hits Lowest Point in 2023 – Fitch Ratings

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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