The Unassuming Economist

A new IMF study on says that:

“Low interest rates and abundant liquidity globally has led to significant demand pressures on housing markets around the world. Economies have tackled growing imbalances with the continued tightening of prudential-based tools and, in some cases, targeted tax measures. While the outcomes of these policies are not straightforward to assess, and up-to-date empirical evidence is not readily available for the individual economy cases, the measures likely have slowed down increases in house prices and household indebtedness, and improved the resilience of the financial sector to housing market related shocks. The trend towards coordinating prudential measures with tax-based measures is likely to improve the overall effectiveness of macroprudential policy in cases when speculative and investment demand play a major role.”

Another IMF study on Canada says that:

“The aim of this paper is to assess which macroprudential policy measures have been effective in containing house price and mortgage credit growth in Canada and other economies. Our analysis indicates that macroprudential policy measures have had a moderating effect on house prices and mortgage credit in Canada since 2010. International experience suggests that lower caps on debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratios and loan-to-value ratios could be effective in containing both mortgage credit and house price growth.”

 

 

IMF’s latest report on Germany says that:

“At the aggregate level, housing affordability remains good, and price developments moderate in international comparison, but growing regional differences warrant close monitoring. House prices have continued to accelerate but their level remains moderate, as do various indicators of mortgage affordability (price-to-rent, price-to-income). However, the picture is different when regional developments are considered. While house prices continue to fall in some rural areas, price growth has reached double-digits in large cities and university towns. In certain urban areas, overvaluation may amount to 30 percent according to the Bundesbank’s latest estimates. While there is no comprehensive data available on regional mortgage growth, there is some anecdotal evidence of looser underwriting standards in some areas.

Relaxing housing supply constraints would help mitigate price pressures. Last year the government adopted a package of measures to address supply shortages and improve affordability. The plan is progressing in coordination with local authorities and includes stepping up the sales of federally-owned land and properties below market price for affordable housing projects, more funds for social housing, and the promotion of building code harmonization. However, the authorities estimate that the supply of new housing units remained below demand in 2016. To significantly boost supply in the short term, these measures must be complemented by further encouragement for local authorities to relax zoning and height restrictions in areas under pressure. Lowering the effective transaction tax rate on new construction, as recommended by staff in the past, would also be helpful in this regard.

New legislation introducing macroprudential instruments for the real estate market was approved, but left the toolkit incomplete and important data gaps unaddressed. The new legislation broadens the macroprudential toolkit to include loan-to-value and amortization requirements, but does not include either debt-to-income or debt-service-to-income limits— instruments designed to limit borrower vulnerability to income and interest rate shocks, and ensure affordability. Most importantly, the new law does not include any provision for a granular, loan-by loan database, a central tenet of past staff recommendation to ensure the effective implementation of macroprudential tools. At a minimum, a regular (at least annual) survey should be conducted in hotspots to collect information on individual loans, and assess household leverage, loan affordability and the concentration of banks’ exposure.”

On cross-country:

• Global Residential Cities Index – Q1 2017 – Knight Frank
• Economic Activity, Credit Market Conditions, and the Housing Market – Macroeconomic Dynamics

On the US:

• FED Governor Jerome H. Powell on The Case for Housing Finance Reform – Speech, Event Video, and Coverage: Financial Times
• Are Home Prices Really Above Their Pre-Recession Peak? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Housing Sentiment at Record High as Consumers’ Confidence in Home-Selling Environment Strengthens – Fannie Mae
• What you want to know about California’s failed housing affordability law – Los Angeles Times
• It’s time for cities to start building their fair share of housing – Los Angeles Times

On other countries:

• Australian Housing ‘Bubble’ Fears Overblown, HSBC Economist Says – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Rental Ownership Structure in Canada – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
• [Canada] Ontario’s One Cylinder Economy: Housing in Toronto and Weak Business Investment – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Restrictive Land-Use Regulation: Strategies, Effects and Solutions – Frontier Centre for Public Policy
• [China] Relationship between the Chinese housing and marriage markets – VoxDev
• [China] The bubble dynamics of China’s housing boom – VoxDev
• [Germany] Cheap credit not fuelling German real estate bubble for now- central banker – Reuters
• [Norway] Are House Prices Overvalued in Norway? – IMF
• [Switzerland] UBS and Credit Suisse cut back on domestic mortgages – Financial Times

IMF’s latest report on Lithuania says that: “Housing price developments in Lithuania are not an immediate concern, but the Bank of Lithuania rightly keeps an eye on possible overheating and froth in certain market segments. Macroprudential tools are in place to step in if needed. The strength of some small non-systemic financial institutions needs continued attention and credit union reform should be completed in line with current plans.”

From a new IMF paper on: Are House Prices Overvalued in Norway? – A Cross-Country Analysis:

 

 

“High and overvalued house prices are a source of vulnerability in Norway, in view of the importance of the housing market to both financial and macroeconomic stability. A large correction of house prices, driven by slower real income growth, a reverse in sentiment, or interest rate hikes could weaken household balance sheets and depress private demand, and in turn adversely affect corporate and bank earnings. The authorities have been vigilant about the risks and have implemented a list of measures to strengthen the resilience of banks and households, including additional bank capital buffer requirements in line with Basel III/CRD IV, higher risk weights on residential mortgages using IRB models, tighter mortgage regulations, and the introduction of the debt-to-income limit of five times the borrower’s gross annual income to complement the loan-to-value (LTV) limits and affordability tests. Nevertheless, further targeted macroprudential measures should be considered to help contain systemic risks if vulnerabilities in the housing sector intensify, including: tighter LTV limits, a reduction in banks’ scope for deviating from mortgage regulations, and/or higher mortgage risk weights.

In the longer term, the macro-financial resilience of the economy to housing market shocks should be enhanced through tax reform and structural measures. A stable housing market (without pronounced boom-bust cycles) would contribute to smoother economic development. While macroprudential measures play an important role in containing the buildup of financial imbalances, a holistic approach is needed to fundamentally address the issue: (i) reducing the generous tax preferences for housing investment would help prevent demand distortions and excessive leverage, thereby dampening housing cycles; (ii) while the recent streamlining of building codes―which shortened the time needed to obtain a building permit and finish construction—is welcome, relaxing land-use and remaining constraints on new property construction, including at the municipal level, should facilitate a more efficient use of land and a flexible adjustment of housing supply, which will mitigate house price growth; and (iii) a more developed rental market would help relieve demand pressures—especially in view of the recent large influx of asylum seekers―as well as support labor mobility across regions as the economy goes through structural change.”