The Unassuming Economist

From a book chapter by Ted Schrecker and Clare Bambra:

“‘The inequality machine is reshaping the planet’, wrote the editor of Le Monde Diplomatique in 2013. Rising inequality of income and wealth is one of the distinguishing characteristics of the neoliberal era; we provide descriptions first on a global scale and then on the national, noting the role of labour market transformations and the financial crisis. Poverty is a manifestation of inequality with especially negative consequences for health; we examine trends in the UK and the US, and contrast them with the simultaneous increases in wealth accumulation. We then provide three more focussed case examples: spatial inequalities in health in England; incarceration in the US; and unequal distribution of risks and benefits from the activities that generate climate change. We conclude with a review of evidence that economic inequality makes life worse for almost everyone in the societies affected, not just those at its sharp end.”

From a paper by Charlotte Liotta and Jeroen van den Bergh:

“The long-standing growth-versus-environment debate has centered on national and global scales, devoting little attention to cities despite steadily increasing urban concentrations of population, activities and emissions. This Perspective clarifies how this debate plays out for cities by relating four urban growth dimensions—economic, population, spatial and environmental—to the narratives of green growth, degrowth and post-growth. To this end, we review theoretical and empirical insights about links between growth dimensions. Specific issues addressed include horizontal spillovers among cities, vertical policy integration and local experiments. Thus we connect the abstract growth-versus-environment debate to evidence regarding urban environmental policy.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• U.S. Home Price Growth Cools to Near-Two-Year Low. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months to April – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April –Calculated Risk
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 0.7% from May 2025 to May 2026. – Fast Company
• These 96 housing markets are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, these 96 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis. – Fast Company
• What Trump’s Bomb Strike on Iran Means for Mortgage Rates in the US – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009. There is a consensus among major publicly traded homebuilders that the spring 2025 housing market was softer than expected. – Fast Company
• Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows – NAHB
• Home Prices Stay Steady as Buyers Take Their Time – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s new rating for 250 major markets. Where home sellers—and home buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s updated analysis released in June. – Fast Company
• Real USA Home Prices Flat for 1 Year & 19% Above 2006 Peak – Real Estate Decoded
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 7% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Active Inventory Highest Reached 67-Month High – Calculated Risk
• Home Sales Stay Sluggish in May as Mortgage Rates and Uncertainty Weigh on Market – Realtor.com
• Home Sales Rose in May, but Housing Market Is Still Sluggish. Existing-home sales edge up 0.8%, ending two-month streak of declines – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. New Home Sales Slump as High Mortgage Rates Persist. Sales of new single-family homes fell 13.7% to 623,000 in May – Wall Street Journal
• How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm. To what extent was the construction boom a product of the sometimes-perverse incentives and disincentives facing developers? – Bloomberg
• Homeownership: Not Enough Supply for Middle-Income Buyers. For teachers, nurses and other skilled workers, few options. – New York Times
• California Democrats wage internal war over Gavin Newsom’s late push to build more housing. Governor is drawing heavy resistance to his housing development proposal. – Politico

On other developments:    

• Interactive Tool Charts Pandemic Homebuying Trends – San Francisco Fed
• The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Unease in the Housing Market Amid a Worsening Affordability Crisis – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Zohran Mamdani’s policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC. Progressive ideas still try to defy economic realities. – Noahpinion
• Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible? – NAHB
• Institutional Investors Aren’t the Villains of America’s Housing Market – National Review
• More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater. Some who bought around the market peak in pandemic boomtowns owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – Wall Street Journal
• Buyers in the Priciest Housing Markets Need 80% Down To Afford Monthly Costs – Realtor.com
• Thoughts on the Big, Fascinating, Exciting Mamdani Upset! The affordability crisis is real. Mamdani’s offering solutions where others, including the president, not only have nothing, but are making it worse. – Jared Bernstein 
• New York’s Housing Crisis Is So Bad That a Socialist Is Poised to Become Mayor. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old who campaigned on rent freezes, emerged victorious in the city’s Democratic primary – Wall Street Journal
• Will Zohran Mamdani’s Housing Plan Actually Work in New York City? – Realtor.com
• On Housing, All New York Politicians Are Socialists. Allegedly sane, centrist opponents of New York City’s socialist mayoral candidate are all too happy to regulate rental housing into the ground. – Reason
• New Yorkers Vote to Make Their Housing Shortage Worse. Austin, Texas, and other red-state cities have set an example for how to make housing markets work – New York Times
• A New Rail Line May Come to New York. Will a Housing Boom Follow? The Interborough Express, a rail line connecting Brooklyn and Queens, could spur the building of tens of thousands of homes. Obstacles await. – New York Times
• Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales – NAHB
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Confronting the affordable-housing crisis – McKinsey
• Why Do Republicans Support the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit? Publicly funded homes in some cities are costing taxpayers more than $1 million per unit, but Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would increase funding for these inefficient projects. – Reason
• San Francisco’s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming Again Thanks to AI Wealth. A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty says the top end of the market has undergone a renaissance. – Bloomberg
• Affordability Crisis Worsens as Home Prices Hit ‘Shocking’ New High—5 Times What the Typical Household Earns – Realtor.com
• Where Are the Least Competitive Housing Markets? – Zillow
• Housing Department to Move Headquarters, Booting National Science Foundation. The plan to depart Washington and take over the science agency building in Virginia raised questions about where N.S.F. employees would go. – New York Times

From a paper by Boyang Lia, Runze Chena, and Yuqin Dua:

“The power generation mix in China heavily relies on fossil energy sources, impeding
the advancement of clean power generation and emission reduction efforts. This paper
presents a macroeconomic model incorporating Emissions Trading Systems (ETS),
clean energy subsidies, and intertemporal learning behavior. It examines how carbon
pricing and clean subsidy policies influence the power generation sector and emission
reduction goals. The findings indicate that (1) pricing strategies based on total
emissions effectively drive emission reductions but may not adequately incentivize
cleaner energy transitions. (2) Increasing clean energy subsidies encourages a shift
towards cleaner technologies, although the impact on emission reductions is moderate.
(3) Combining both policies proves to be more effective than implementing either one
alone. (4) There exists a gap in understanding the clean power generation industry, with
both policies contributing to knowledge accumulation in this sector. The insights from
this study are valuable for countries employing ETS mechanisms.”

From a paper by Christos A. Makridis  and Saurabh Mishra:

“The share of artificial intelligence (AI) jobs in total job postings has increased from 0.20% to nearly 1% between 2010 and 2019, but there is significant heterogeneity across cities in the United States (US). Using new data on AI job postings across 343 US cities, combined with data on subjective well-being and economic activity, we uncover the central role that service-based cities play to translate the benefits of AI job growth to subjective well-being. We find that cities with higher growth in AI job postings witnessed higher economic growth. The relationship between AI job growth and economic growth is driven by cities that had a higher concentration of modern (or professional) services. AI job growth also leads to an increase in the state of well-being. The transmission channel of AI job growth to increased subjective well-being is explained by the positive relationship between AI jobs and economic growth. These results are consistent with models of structural transformation where technological change leads to improvements in well-being through improvements in economic activity. Our results suggest that AI-driven economic growth, while still in the early days, could also raise overall well-being and social welfare, especially when the pre-existing industrial structure had a higher concentration of modern (or professional) services.”