The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Jérôme Creel and Jonas Kaiser:

“This paper introduces a novel application of the Updated Okun Method to estimate fiscal multipliers. By leveraging Okun’s Law to compute potential output and the output gap, we construct a new measure of the fiscal stance that improves transparency and interpretability. Applying this approach to France and Italy, we find that both economies were operating below full potential for most of the sample period, and that fiscal policy was more contractionary than standard estimates suggest. Our analysis reveals significant differences in fiscal multiplier effects across the two countries, with evidence of state-dependence in France, where fiscal policy is more effective during periods of economic slack, while no such variation is observed for Italy. These findings underscore the importance of aligning fiscal policy with economic conditions, particularly in the context of public debt sustainability debates.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• America’s huge mortgage market is slowly dying. Donald Trump’s remedies threaten to inflame a housing crisis – The Economist
• Mortgage lending in America is seizing up. How to revive it. Some rules introduced after the financial crisis have gone too far – The Economist
• The 10 U.S. Cities Seeing the Biggest Home Value Boom Since 2019 – Realtor.com
• Tensions between renters and homeowners challenge Mamdani housing plan. The incoming New York City mayor’s plan relies on higher density in places where some neighbors oppose it. He is scheduled to meet Friday with the president. – Washington Post
• Zillow just revised its home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow upgraded its national home price outlook slightly—predicting that over the next 12 months U.S. home prices are likely to rise 1.5%. – Fast Company
• Where Renters and Owners Face the Highest Cost Burdens – NAHB
• Luxury Homes Are Selling Faster as Prices Tick Down—and One Tropical Enclave Has Seen the Steepest Drop – Realtor.com
• Rents Drop in 5 Key Metros—What You Need to Know – Realtor.com
• NAR Housing Market Forecast for 2026—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September. FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October. Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17% – Calculated Risk
• Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter – New York Fed
• Understanding the Federal Home Loan Bank System: What It Is and Why It Matters – New York Fed 

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Trump needs to tackle housing supply, not mortgage rates. A focus on cutting interest costs only fuels home price inflation, hitting working families – FT
• Existing Home Sales Rise in October – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October. Median House Prices Increased 2.1% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It. More than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut – Wall Street Journal
• Building Material Prices Continued to Rise in September – NAHB
• US Home-Purchase Applications Surge to Highest Since 2023 – Bloomberg
• Pending Homes Sales Climb 1.9% as This Region Outperforms the Rest of the Country – Realtor.com
• The ‘New’ Solution for the N.Y.C. Housing Crisis: Single-Room Apartments. There is a push to revive single-room occupancy housing, where kitchens and bathrooms are shared among apartments as small as 100 square feet each. – New York Times
• Delistings Jump 28% as Sellers Pull Homes Off Market Rather Than Settle For Low Prices – Redfin
• States look for clogs in the housing pipeline. As they seek to lower their residents’ housing costs, states are tweaking land use laws and other regulatory frameworks – Minneapolis Fed

On other developments:    

• The Housing Affordability Crisis Is Accelerating Fastest in Rural America – Redfin
• Job and Housing Stresses Are Caught in a Vicious Loop – Bloomberg
• What incentives are states offering to make houses less vulnerable to extreme weather damage? – Brookings
• Are millennials frozen out of the housing market? The reality may be more interesting. An eye-catching report said the average first-time homebuyer is now 40, but the story is more complex. – Washington Post
• America’s Housing Crisis, in One Chart – New York Times
• Every Housing Down Cycle is “unhappy in its own way” – Calculated Risk
• Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy – Mercatus Center
• Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart – CEPR
• Is the housing market at risk as more homeowners slip underwater? The share of mortgages that are underwater inches up to 1.6%—still far below the 23% seen in 2009. – Fast Company
• Pulte’s Move to Fix Credit Scores Is Bad News for Homebuyers. Bill Pulte declared by tweet that homebuying costs would be lower if FICO had competition—a move that instead risks pushing credit-score prices higher. – Bloomberg
• What it Means for Housing if the AI Bubble Bursts—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Property Taxes by State – 2024 – NAHB
• L.A. Mayor Karen Bass Says You Can Defeat NIMBYism by Building Less – Reason 
• New York Leads Effort to Stop Plan That Could Cut Housing for 170,000. The Trump administration is pushing a new approach to America’s homeless crisis, favoring shelters and rehabilitation centers over long-term housing for people who use drugs and alcohol. – New York Times

From a paper by Puneet Vatsa, Gabriel Pino, Dragan Miljkovic:

“Using partially identified Bayesian structural vector autoregressions, we examine how food price shocks have influenced core inflation and inflation expectations in the United States since 1990. This is important, given the conspicuousness of food prices and the substantial share of food expenditure in households’ budgets. Shocks raised one-year expectations immediately, with effects lasting nine quarters; they increased core inflation with a short delay. Long-term expectations were largely unaffected. Counterfactuals show that one-year expectations would have been lower in 2020 and 2022 without these shocks. The findings suggest food price shocks warrant a measured response, not an overreaction, from central banks.”

From a paper by Zhining Hu, Linus Nyiwul, and Niraj P. Koirala:

“This paper investigates the impact of food price inflation on gender inequality based on a panel dataset of 130 developing countries from 1990 to 2022. Applying the dynamic panel estimation techniques, including the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) and fixed-effects panel instrumental variable (panel IV) approaches, we find that food inflation significantly increases gender inequality, especially in areas such as education, labor market, health, and food security. The inflationary impact on gender inequality is strongest for staple food items like potatoes, wheat, and eggs, which are most fundamental to household consumption and care work activities typically performed by women. Since gender inequality, defined as the unequal distribution of resources, opportunities, and rights between men and women across key social and economic dimensions, is shaped by structural, cultural, and institutional factors, we further conduct heterogeneity analyses. The results reveal that poorer countries and African region are more exposed to the gendered effect of food price inflation, whereas countries with stronger institutional frameworks, such as those in OECD and Latin America, have a buffering influence. Synthetic control studies further show that the 2007–2008 food crisis had a more profound and long-lasting effect on gender inequality compared to the 2021–2022 food crisis, which was mainly driven by labor market differentials in female participation and wage earnings. These consistent results call for gender-responsive policy interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of food price inflation on gender inequality and shield women from escalating burdens induced by food inflation.”

On cross-country:

• Is a Global Housing Bubble About to Burst? It’s unlikely, according to a report by the Swiss bank UBS, but some markets are more vulnerable than others. – New York Times
• New website section puts housing in focus – Eurostat
• Renters bear brunt of housing cost struggles across Europe. Our latest consumer survey highlights rent and mortgage payers’ difficulties in making their monthly payments and reveals how they view overall housing affordability and first-time buyers’ problems – ING
• The solution to Europe’s housing affordability crisis must include building decarbonization. The EU can help tackle Europe’s housing crisis by reducing energy costs, decarbonising buildings and adhering to climate goals – Bruegel 
• Global House Price Index: 1, 5 & 10 Year Changes by Country – Global Property Guide

Working papers and conferences:

• The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Residential Investment and House Prices in Small Euro Area Economies – The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
• Decay, Abandonment, and . . . Profits? An Unlikely Combination in Real Estate Markets – Philadelphia Fed
• Do Lower Mortgage Rates Benefit First-Time Homebuyers? – SSRN
• Sea Level Rise and Effects on House Prices – Richmond Fed

On China:

• How Chinese China investment falls by most since the pandemic. Weak housing prices and slowing industrial output point to flagging economic momentum – FT
• China’s October new home prices fall at fastest pace in a year – Reuters
• Metals Climb as China Weighs New Stimulus for Property Sector – Bloomberg
• Beijing Eyes New Property Stimulus as Housing Slump Deepens – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The 5% first home buyers scheme is a miserable policy failure – and the latest chapter in Australia’s housing disgrace. The government is juicing demand to make houses more expensive for Australians while providing good public housing for … Americans – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market Resumes Gains as Lower Rates Spur Demand – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canadian home sales regain positive momentum in October – Reuters
• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market Resumes Gains as Lower Rates Spur Demand – Bloomberg 
• [Canada] Momentum Continues as Canadian Home Sales Rise in October – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] In-House Podcast: Fall Residential Mortgage Industry Report Insights – CMHC
• [France] Paris Apartment Prices Jump Most in Almost Five Years – Bloomberg
• [Italy] Italy’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide 
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Prices Regain Momentum Ahead of BOK Meeting – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Escasez de vivienda: cuando la oferta no acompaña a la demanda – BBVA
• [Spain] No faltan compradores, faltan casas: el gran bloqueo del mercado inmobiliario – BBVA
• [Spain] Spain’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Residential Real Estate October 2025 Market Overview – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] Average U.K. House Asking Prices Fall in November as Pre-Budget Blues Continue. Budget jitters and a decade-high number of homes for sale are weighing on the market – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Asking prices fall as UK housing market hit by budget speculation, Rightmove says. November drop of 1.8% is biggest for this time of year since 2012, with chancellor’s plans looming – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Multimillion-Pound Home Sales Drop Sharply Before UK Budget – Bloomberg