The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico Mejía, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Alberto Tumino:

“This paper analyzes the redistributive effects of inflation across 18 European economies from
2021:Q3 to 2022:Q2, using unique micro-datasets for this country sample. We estimate inflation’s impact on household welfare through the consumption basket, income, and wealth channels. Our main contribution is incorporating real assets into the wealth channel and accounting for behavioral responses to inflation in both the income and wealth channels. These factors significantly alter inflation’s distributional effects compared to previous literature. The inflation shock is estimated to have caused an average welfare loss equivalent to 18.5 percent of annual household income across our sample, with households in the poorest income quintiles suffering the largest losses. Cross-country differences also widen when real assets are incorporated, with a few economies even showing welfare gains for some or all quintiles because house prices rose faster than inflation.”

From a paper by Claus Brand, Gavin Goy, and Wolfgang Lemke:

“Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r* plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and as the time-varying long-run real interest rate that determines the level of the yield curve. Our estimated r* declines over the last decade, with estimation uncertainty being relatively contained. We show that both macro and financial information is important to infer r*. Accounting for the secular decline in interest rates renders term premia more stable than those based on stationary yield curve models.”

On cross-country:

• 68% of people living in EU households own their home – Eurostat
• MEPs adopt proposals to tackle Europe’s housing crisis – European Parliament
• There are reasons why housing has become the top concern among European citizens. This analysis examines the recent evolution of the European residential market and explores differences between countries in a context where housing has become the main concern among Europeans. What we see is a cycle marked by successive shocks and an insufficient supply, which is now emerging as the main source of tension. – CaixaBank

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing policy, inflation, and monetary policy. An unorthodox view – Brookings
• Understanding CPI shelter inflation: The importance of the new-tenant/all-tenant rent gap – Journal of Housing Economics
• Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5m Neighborhoods – NBER
• Call for Papers: 6th Workshop on Rent Control on June 22-23 – DIW Berlin

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s Rental Affordability Hits Record Low, Property Consultancy Cotality Says – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Will the government finally deliver a housing policy that stops making a bad situation worse? The 5% deposit guarantee has done what everyone expected to housing affordability. But fixing the capital gains tax discount would be a great move – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong reserves 4,000 homes for tenants hit by subdivided flats overhaul – South China Morning Post
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise by most since November 2024, Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Residential Research Update – February 2026 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] UK first-time buyers too pessimistic about securing a property, study says. Building Societies Association finds many are gloomy about their prospects of financing a purchase – FT 

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Sunderji’s Paradox. Why rising incomes never seem to make rent more affordable – Home Economics
• The Condo Crisis. Prices are falling in most major metros – Home Economics
• Hartford tops Zillow’s forecast for hottest housing markets in 2026. Tight inventory is expected to define the most competitive markets in the year ahead. – Zillow
• Homes are on track to be affordable in 20 major US markets by year’s end. After years of strain, buyers should see small affordability wins this year – Zillow
• Inflation Outlook: It Is Not All About Housing – Apollo
• The Housing Markets Seeing the Sharpest Home Price Declines – Realtor.com
• February ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade”. Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater – Calculated Risk
• Weaker Demand, Unchanged Lending Conditions for Residential Mortgages in Fourth Quarter – NAHB
• Trump wants lower mortgage rates. His Fed pick may push the other way. Kevin Warsh has long criticized the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, arguing it distorts markets. Shrinking it could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. – Washington Post
• Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most? – New York Fed

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data – NAHB
• The Sun Belt goes Vertical. A million new apartments, but still behind where coastal cities started. – Home Economics
• 2026 Housing Market Mood: Buyers Are Cautious, Sellers Are Showing Up, and Agents See Signs of Busier Spring Ahead – Redfin
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• Why Building Alone Won’t Solve the Housing Crisis. An imbalance in the kind of housing getting built and rising insurance costs are impeding housing progress, according to two new reports. – New York Times
• Developers are converting empty office buildings to keep up with demand for housing – NPR
• How Hosting the Super Bowl Signals a San Francisco Real Estate Renaissance – Realtor.com 
• Proposed Ban on Investors in the Housing Market Hits a Wall in Congress. White House is pressuring GOP in Congress to add an investor ban to existing housing bills, but lawmakers have pushed back – Wall Street Journal
• Foreclosure Activity Rises Annually for the Eleventh Straight Month, Extending the Trend into 2026 – ATTOM
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• House Passes Major Housing Bill Aimed at Home Affordability and To Speed Up Construction – Realtor.com
• What Is the Housing for the 21st Century Act? – Realtor.com
• On housing, Trump’s problem isn’t willpower. It’s time. Some White House allies acknowledge what they face in the coming months is less a policy fight than a messaging battle on housing. – Politico
• Will Trump’s Order on Housing Help? – New York Times
• The Right Fix for Affordable Housing Finally Hit Congress – Bloomberg  
• California’s blockbuster housing legislation faces rocky rollout. State Sen. Scott Wiener, the author of Senate Bill 79, has not ruled out postponing the July 1 implementation date for the new law because of widespread confusion over what it requires. – Politico
• Unaffordable Housing Impacts How Americans Consume, Work and Invest. As housing prices climb out of reach, discouraged Americans may be reaching for crypto and other risky investments. – Bloomberg
• Maybe America Needs Some New Cities. It sounds a bit kooky to promise a whole city from scratch. But it has been done before — and might just help solve the housing crisis. – New York Times
• Two Decades of Zillow Data Show How the U.S. Housing Market Has Changed Since 2006. How shifting prices, rising housing wealth and a deepening supply gap have reshaped housing over the past 20 years – Zillow
• Homebuyers Are Gaining Leverage as Housing Market Cools—Giving Them More Time To Purchase – Realtor.com
• Is there an affordability crisis? – EconoFact Chats
• Trump housing policy is a mess and it won’t fix the US housing crisis. Deregulation alone can’t make homes affordable when rising inequality, not zoning, is what is driving prices up – The Guardian
• Is the Starter Home Making a Comeback? – Realtor.com
• Hearing on “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market”. History has proven that financial markets will provide funds for housing without the federal government socializing investors’ losses. – Cato

From a paper by Guivis Zeufack Nkemgha, Le Roi Nso Fils, and Ulrich Kevin Kamwa:

“This paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on income inequality across 24 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2000 to 2020. Using IV-Tobit and 2SLS models, we consistently find that greater trade openness significantly exacerbates inequality in the region. Critically, we document an inverted U-shaped relationship between trade and inequality—similar to the Laffer Curve—but this mitigating effect is only observed in high-income, less corrupt, and democratic SSA countries. In addition, trade openness demonstrates a dual, contradictory effect on inequality: the disruptive impact on employment significantly outweighs the mitigating effect of the education channel. This disparity underscores that without robust labour market and social protection policies, the negative employment consequences of trade liberalisation will dominate the potential equalising gains from human capital development.”