The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by by Luis I. Jácome, Nicolás E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura, Martin Uribe:

“As inflation targeting (IT) turns 35, it has become a key institutional monetary framework by central banks. Yet, this paper shows that stark differences exist among inflation targeting countries in the conduct of monetary policy. Behind such heterogeneity, the legacy of a high inflation history appears as a preponderant factor. We propose a model that diverges from existing IT workhorse models by adding path-dependence (to a forward-looking model) and potentially imperfect central bank credibility. We show that achieving low inflation (hitting the target) requires more aggressive monetary policy, and is costlier from an output point of view, when individuals’ past inflationary experiences shape their inflation expectation formation. In turn, we provide empirical evidence of the need for these two theoretical additions. Countries that experienced a high level of inflation before adopting the IT regime tend to respond more aggressively to deviations of inflation expectations from the central bank’s target. We also point to the existence of a credibility puzzle, whereby the strength of a central bank’s monetary policy response to deviations from the inflation target remains broadly unchanged even as central banks gain credibility over time. Put differently, a country’s inflationary past casts a long and persistent shadow on central banks.”

From a paper by Antonis Tsitouras & Harry Papapanagos:

“Few studies have explored the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, economic growth, education, and inflation influence income inequality in developed economies. This study examines these factors in Greece using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The novelty of this research lies in its application of three distinct measures of income inequality: (a) the Gini index, (b) the income share of the poorest 20% quantile, and (c) the income share of the top 20% quantile. The results have significant theoretical and policy implications. First, GDP per capita elasticities strongly support Kuznets’ theory. Second, while FDI does not significantly affect on income distribution in the short term, it predominantly improves income distribution at the upper and median levels in the long term while reducing the income share of the lowest 20% quantile. Third, trade openness initially increases income inequality but primarily improves distribution at the lower and median levels over time. Fourth, although education initially exacerbates economic inequality, it significantly supports lower and median income levels in the long run. Finally, inflation negatively impacts income equality in both the medium and long term, boosting the earnings of the top 20% quantile over time. These findings suggest that governments should address income inequality by focusing on sustainable growth, improving education, implementing reforms to attract FDI, boosting exports, and adopting measures to control inflation.”

From a paper by Antonis Tsitouras & Harry Papapanagos:

“Few studies have explored the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, economic growth, education, and inflation influence income inequality in developed economies. This study examines these factors in Greece using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The novelty of this research lies in its application of three distinct measures of income inequality: (a) the Gini index, (b) the income share of the poorest 20% quantile, and (c) the income share of the top 20% quantile. The results have significant theoretical and policy implications. First, GDP per capita elasticities strongly support Kuznets’ theory. Second, while FDI does not significantly affect on income distribution in the short term, it predominantly improves income distribution at the upper and median levels in the long term while reducing the income share of the lowest 20% quantile. Third, trade openness initially increases income inequality but primarily improves distribution at the lower and median levels over time. Fourth, although education initially exacerbates economic inequality, it significantly supports lower and median income levels in the long run. Finally, inflation negatively impacts income equality in both the medium and long term, boosting the earnings of the top 20% quantile over time. These findings suggest that governments should address income inequality by focusing on sustainable growth, improving education, implementing reforms to attract FDI, boosting exports, and adopting measures to control inflation.”

From a paper by Amir Mohammad Moghani, and Reyhaneh Loni:

“Energy plays a critical role in the economic advancement of nations. The reliance of oil-rich countries on energy revenues underscores the importance of ensuring the security of this vital resource. Safeguarding the security of energy resources is a top priority for the national security of the producing countries. The current geopolitical landscape is heavily influenced by energy considerations, making energy governance a key factor in enhancing national security. This review paper aims to discuss and present the role of energy governance impacts on the national security of oil-rich countries based on energy governance literature. The scientific publications selected to be studied are from 2010 to 2024. The findings suggest that effective energy governance plays a crucial role in enhancing the national security of countries abundant in oil resources. It is imperative to tailor energy governance to bolster national resilience in the energy sector, given the interconnectedness of energy governance, energy security, and national security. As such, pivotal aspects of energy governance encompass revenues and resources management, stakeholder participation, global politics and international relations, and the culture and value of societies.”

On cross-country:

• Which countries most love working from home? And what has it done to their economies? – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing and inequality: A critical link in economic disparities – VoxEU
• When Developers Hold Office: Shaping Housing Supply Through Local Politics – CEPR
• Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in Us Housing Markets – SSRN
• Wealth and Risk Attitude: Evidence from House Price Increase in Korea – SSRN
• Mortgages for Second Residences and Housing Markets – SSRN

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Why Labor and the Coalition’s housing policies could make the crisis worse – The Guardian
• [Australia] Sydney Boarding Homes Threatened by Luxury Builds as Prices Soar – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australians could be waiting more than 70 years for affordable housing if prices follow path pushed by major parties. Labor and the Coalition have launched policies to tackle the crisis, but they shied away from the idea of falling house prices – The Guardian
• [Australia] The electorates where house prices rose (and fell) the most – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Canada] ‘My home is worth millions – but my own kids are priced out of this city’ – BBC
• [Canada] Homebuilding in Canada stalls despite population explosion – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Newfoundland and Labrador’s population growth dwarfs homebuilding rate – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Canada’s Prime Minister Pushes Country to Become the Housing Factory of the World. Mark Carney is banking on factory-built homes to alleviate the country’s housing crisis. But will it work? – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada’s Million-Dollar Housing Crisis. Soaring housing costs, with many homes nearing $1 million, have sparked an exodus from cities like Vancouver, and Canadians want their next prime minister to do something about it. – New York Times
• Why Greater Toronto Could Decide Who Wins Canada’s Election. The Conservatives had enjoyed a lead over Liberals in the region largely because of rising housing and food costs. But President Trump’s tariffs have shifted the equation. – New York Times
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market was poised for a comeback. Then trade war jitters set in – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Housing Market Monitor – National Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Carney Pushes Canada to Become the Housing Factory of the World – Bloomberg
• [Canada] The housing crisis is made worse by a policy mismatch. Serious social and economic consequences could unfold unless deficient housing policy is addressed and better aligned with immigration policy. – Policy Options
• [Greece] Decoding Housing Affordability in Greece – Alpha Bank 
• [India] Mumbai’s Rush to Rebuild Comes With a Warning. The redevelopment frenzy in India’s commercial hub is dangerously close to peaking – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] Netherlands a ‘cautionary tale’ for Coalition’s mortgage deduction scheme, expert warns. Cody Hochstenbach says the scheme in his country has driven up home prices and weighs heavily on taxpayers – The Guardian
• [South Africa] Backyard Micro-Flats Aim to Ease South Africa’s Housing Crisis. A startup is fronting the costs for homeowners to become landlords as part of a broader effort to expand affordable housing in poor townships. – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Spain to speed up industrial construction of social housing with EU funds – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage completions rose by 50% in March as UK buyers rushed to beat stamp duty deadline. Barclays says March was busiest month in property market since 2021, driven by scramble to avoid higher costs – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London Rents Surge. Why Are Landlords Miserable? The rapid increase should attract investor capital, but new environmental rules have undermined the laws of economics. – Bloomberg