The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro, Ameet Kumar, Khine Kyaw, and Pervaiz Ahmed Memon:

“This paper investigates how financial development and institutional quality influence the negative impact of economic uncertainty on economic growth. Using a panel dataset of 32 countries covering the period 2004–2017, the study examines whether the institutional context can mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty, and through which channels this effect is transmitted. To address potential endogeneity issues, we employ the system-GMM estimation method and margin plot techniques. The overall level of financial development is measured using principal component analysis (PCA). The results show that financial development reduces the negative impact of uncertainty on economic growth through both the investment and consumption channels. Further analysis reveals that access to finance, financial depth, financial stability, and stock market depth all play significant roles in moderating this relationship. In contrast, financial efficiency shows no mitigating effect. Regarding institutional quality, government stability helps to lessen the adverse effects of uncertainty, while bureaucratic quality does not appear to have a significant influence. The findings highlight the importance of institutional context in shaping how uncertainty affects economic growth and contribute to the limited literature on the role of financial development in this relationship. This study also pioneers the analysis of how institutional quality interacts with financial development to influence the uncertainty–growth nexus. From a policy perspective, governments should promote financial system development to cushion the economy against uncertainty, and policymakers should consider the state of financial markets when designing strategies to sustain growth under uncertain conditions.”

From a paper by Dooyeon Cho, and Seunghwa Rho:

“Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.”

From a paper by David Sturrock, and Peter Levell:

“We study the impact of the UK house price boom on the intergenerational persistence of homeownership, housing wealth, location and earnings. Using price variation driven by geographic differences in the elasticity of housing supply, we find that increases in local house prices have a negative effect on homeownership and increase the intergenerational persistence of housing wealth. We show that by age 28 to 37 around 15% of parental gross housing wealth differences are passed through to children’s gross housing wealth. This is not explained by parental housing wealth gains increasing childrens’ likelihood of becoming homeowners, but is largely explained by the children of wealthier parents being more likely to move to and own a home in London. Moving to this high house price and high earning part of the country comes alongside an effect of parental housing wealth on occupation choice and a positive effect of parental housing wealth on the likelihood of being a top earner for men. Increased parental housing wealth causes larger wealth transfers to adult children. We interpret these findings with a model in which wealthier parents help their children overcome liquidity constraints to move to high house price parts of the country. Counterfactual simulations show that the UK house price boom doubled the intergenerational persistence of housing wealth and caused living in London to become more concentrated among the children of the wealthy.”

On cross-country:

• House prices and rents went up in Q3 2025 – Eurostat
• House prices up by 5.1% in the euro area – Eurostat
• Trump’s planned limits on US property investing could spur foray into UK housing market. Ban on private equity firms buying single-family homes in US raises concerns institutions could deepen housing crisis on Britain – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• The Global Macroprudential Database – IMF
• New evidence on the resilience benefit of borrower-based measures when interest rates go up – VoxEU
• Aging and Housing Returns – NBER
• Climate Policies in the Housing Market – Paris School of Economics
• House Prices, Fertility Rates, and Homeownership: Evidence from The UK – SSRN
• Heterogeneous Selection of Price Spillover Channels in Housing Markets – SSRN
• Measuring Housing Market Slack – SSRN
• Mapping excess housing demand using big search data – SSRN

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] It’s getting easier to build a new home – for now. The price gap between building a home and buying an existing one – which has stopped a lot of new projects – has narrowed. But it may not last. – Financial Review
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Set for Slight Gains in 2026, BNZ Says – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market in Winter Freeze as Prices, Sales Decline – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canadians Are Furious After Real Estate Funds Lock Up Their Money. Funds stung by the property downturn limit client withdrawals, after assuring ordinary investors they were safe – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property: Citi lifts forecast after Morgan Stanley’s upgrade – South China Morning Post
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Hit Multi-Year High Despite Recent Lull – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – December 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Residential Project Launch Tracker – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise by least since March 2024, Halifax data shows – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Homes on sale in England should be tested for lead, says water watchdog. Call by Drinking Water Inspectorate comes after FT revealed millions of people may be unknowingly exposed to toxic metal – FT
• [United Kingdom] How the 1990s and 2000s property price boom reduced social mobility – Institute for Fiscal Studies
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s 90s Housing Boom Handed Rich Kids Best Jobs, IFS Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Multimillion-Pound London Homes Hit by Sudden, Gaping Cracks. Londoners face a dangerous acceleration of subsidence risks, as record temperatures fueled by climate change destabilize the clay foundations on which most of the UK capital’s homes are built. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] U.K. House Prices Expected to Rise But London Likely to Straggle. Zoopla report shows that average house prices are likely to increase 1.5% – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Share of London homes sold at a loss higher than anywhere else in England. Lossmaking sales are the latest sign of weakness in the capital’s property market – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Trump says US housing agencies to launch $200bn mortgage bond-buying spree. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to carry out purchases – FT
• Trump announces $200B bond purchase in bid to lower mortgage rates. FHFA Director Bill Pulte says Fannie and Freddie will buy bonds from the public market. – Politico
• Trump Orders Fannie and Freddie to Buy $200 Billion in Mortgage Bonds. The move, a bid to make homes more affordable, would be a back-to-future moment for the two mortgage firms. Buying risky mortgage bonds helped push them to near-bankruptcy in 2008. – New York Times
• Trump orders his ‘Representatives’ to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds – Reuters
• Mortgage Bonds, Home Lenders Jump as Trump Targets Housing Costs – Bloomberg
• Pulte backs away from 50-year mortgage. The Federal Housing director said the president is reviewing between 30 and 50 ideas to bring down housing costs. – Politico
• Will Mortgage Rates Improve More than Expected in 2026? – Zillow
• Mortgage Applications Today: Home Loan Refinancing Rebounds—Soaring 40% After Holiday Slump – Realtor.com 
• Housing Payments Drop to Lowest Level in 2 Years As Mortgage Rates Decline – Redfin
• The top 10 hottest housing markets in 2026: Zillow – The Hill
• Top 5 Metros Where Home Prices Are Falling the Fastest – Realtor.com
• Mamdani’s First Big Move to Help Renters Is Dealt a Blow by Court. Summit Properties USA won an auction on Friday to buy more than 5,000 apartments out of bankruptcy from the Pinnacle Group despite City Hall’s efforts to intervene. – New York Times
• Rent Concessions Are on the Rise in America’s Sunbelt Cities. Cities like Phoenix overbuilt upscale housing when remote workers started showing up during the pandemic. Now that extra inventory means perks for renters. – Wall Street Journal
• Household Real Estate Asset Values Fall in the Third Quarter – NAHB
• Blaming short-term rentals won’t solve the housing crisis. Blaming and banning short-term rental platforms for high housing costs ignores the history of laws that have contributed to the current problem. – Reason
• U.S. Home Equity Dips From Record Highs in 2025Q3, as Home Values Ease – Realtor.com
• Manhattan Rents Hover Near Highs in Sign of Affordability Crunch – Bloomberg

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• The Landlords Are Not the Problem – New York Times
• The Trump-Warren Housing Condominium. Banning investors from buying homes won’t reduce home prices. – Wall Street Journal
• President Trump and Institutional Investors in Single-Family Rentals – AEI
• Trump Blindsides Wall Street Allies With Crackdown on Housing Investors. Move after 2008 housing crash to buy and rent out single-family homes comes under fire – Wall Street Journal
• Do Institutional Investors Raise Housing Prices? – Home Economicus
• Buying a home is 150% more expensive than in 2019. But here’s why Trump’s plan to shut out institutional investors could raise costs even more – Fortune
• Two Fed officials say key to fixing US housing more about supply than financing – Reuters
• Can Trump Lower Home Prices by Taking On Wall Street Buyers? – Bloomberg
• Trump Wants Cheaper Housing. How Pulte Could Pressure Builders to Deliver It. – Barron’s
• Trump Administration Takes Aim at Home-Builder Stock Buybacks. Housing finance chief Bill Pulte says home builders aren’t doing enough to lower housing costs – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October – Calculated Risk
• Residential Construction Softens Amid Ongoing Housing Market Headwinds – NAHB
• Townhouse Construction Share Gains Continue – NAHB
• Why are housing starts still falling despite lower mortgage rates? – Los Angeles Times
• US Housing Starts Fall to Lowest Level Since May 2020 – Bloomberg
• US single-family housing starts rebound in October, building permits dip – Reuters 
• A powerful force has been holding back the housing market. It’s finally easing. The U.S. housing market recently reached a key milestone that could lead to more buying and selling. – Washington Post
• What a New Betting Market for Housing Prices Means for Home Buyers and Sellers. Slower-moving indicators have widely been considered the most reliable data for home buyers and sellers – Wall Street Journal
• Growth for Custom Home Building – NAHB
• How Mamdani and Cea Weaver Plan to End Private Housing. Their proposals would make many apartment buildings impossible to sustain. That’s by design. – Wall Street Journal
• Top 5 Metros Where Homes Are Piling Up on the Market – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk
• Housing markets where homebuyers are gaining power heading into spring 2026
• In total, 17 states are back above pre-pandemic 2019 housing inventory levels. Here’s what that tells us. – Fast Company
• New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October. Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Building Material Price Growth Remains Elevated in November – NAHB
• New York State to Loosen Environmental Rules to Speed Up Homebuilding. Review process can add two years and hundreds of thousands of dollars in costs to housing projects – Wall Street Journal
• US existing home sales accelerate in December – Reuters
• Home Sales in December Jump 5.1%, Biggest Gain in Nearly 2 Years. Easing mortgage rates and slower growth in home prices boosted sales to the highest level since February 2023 – Wall Street Journal
• Existing Home Sales Climb to Near 3-Year High in December – NAHB
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026 – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• Trump officials prepare executive order on housing affordability. More details are expected when President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, later this month. – Washington Post
• As President Trump Tackles Housing Affordability, Progress Emerges — and More Relief Is on the Horizon – The White House
• This Is Not the Way to Make Housing More Affordable – Bloomberg
• How Trump policies are colliding with housing market – Axios  
• Trump is planning to rescue a crucial part of the American Dream. The president is moving to end Wall Street’s grip on housing prices. – Washington Post
• Trump and Affordability. They’re just not that into each other. – Jared Bernstein
• Facing Political Pressure, Trump Seeks Answer to Rising Housing Costs. White House officials have explored a vast array of ideas as the president looks to unfurl a housing affordability plan at an economic conference this month. – New York Times
• Trump’s New Housing Strategy Is All About Boosting Buyers Now. Administration says more proposals are on the way, but it has yet to address the shortage at the root of the affordability crisis – Wall Street Journal
• As Trump Pushes Housing Affordability, His Mortgage Chief Undermines It. Under Bill Pulte, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have pulled away from efforts to help low-income people buy homes. – New York Times
• The cities with the oldest homes in America — and no, they’re not all in New England. Why so many U.S. homes predate 1960, and how aging inventory is reshaping markets, according to Redfin – Quartz
• The Best Markets for First-Time Homebuyers in 2026 – Realtor.com
• The Past, Present, and Future of Public Housing: Dunlop Lecture with Kenzie Bok – JCHS
• The Housing Market’s Lock-In Effects – AEI
• Real-Estate Tech Gets the Message: Focus on Affordability. Venture investors target startups aiming to ease the difficulty of buying a home – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases in 2025 – ATTOM