The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Abdelkader Aguir:

“The global COVID-19 crisis led to a major recession, following a supply and demand shock severely affecting both developed and emerging economies. Containment measures reduced demand and production, while financial market volatility impacted emerging economies. Countries’ stimulus policies had mixed effects on these economies. The pandemic also disrupted global supply chains, leading to volatility in the prices of raw materials such as oil, metals and agricultural products. These fluctuations had an impact on production costs and, consequently, on the prices of final goods and services. In the wake of rising inflation, some are questioning the effectiveness of inflation-targeting policies. Our study evaluates the performance of this monetary regime in the face of crisis, estimating the efficiency frontier: inflation variability – output variability, which allows us to deduce measures of economic performance and measures of the efficiency of monetary policy in the face of an economic crisis.”

From a paper by Yu Yang, Qi Zhang, A-Min Zhao, and Hui Gao:

“This study investigates whether China’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) can simultaneously achieve carbon emission reductions and economic growth—a dual objective often described as “having the best of both worlds.” Utilizing panel data from 2508 counties spanning 2000 to 2020, we treat the implementation of the ETS as a quasi-natural experiment and employ a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach to evaluate its effects. The results show that the ETS significantly reduces carbon emissions while promoting industry output, confirming the compatibility of environmental and economic objectives. Robustness checks confirm the stability of the estimates. Mechanism analyses reveal that the policy’s success is primarily driven by technological innovation and enhanced environmental regulation. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the ETS’s effectiveness is more pronounced in cities with stronger industrial foundations, higher enforcement capacity, and those located in the Yangtze River Basin. This research contributes to the environmental economics literature by offering evidence at the county level and provides actionable policy insights for the design and regional tailoring of market-based environmental regulation tools.”

From a paper by José Alberto Fuinhas, Daniela Castilho, Volkan Kaymaz, and Matheus Koengkan:

“In this empirical investigation, the influence of tourism on housing prices was studied for 13 European Union countries from 2005 to 2019 using cs-ARDL and Quantile cs-ARDL econometric approaches. The findings reveal a positive effect running from the tourism sector (represented by tourism revenues and the number of arrivals) to housing price indices, indicating that this industry significantly impacts real estate markets. Moreover, the results show that economic growth, bank credit, and population growth drive house prices. These outcomes have significant implications for policymakers, highlighting the dual nature of tourism’s impact and the need for a careful balance between promoting tourism as an economic strategy and ensuring housing affordability for residents.”

From a paper by Heru Wahyudi, Sabila Ramadani, and Ukhti Ciptawaty:

“Human welfare can decrease as a result of a polluted environment. This study aims to examine the relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory in OPEC member countries; besides that, this study also wants to see the effect of GDP per capita and fossil energy consumption on carbon dioxide gas emissions in OPEC countries. Method: this research is included in the descriptive quantitative method using the panel data regression method. The data used in the 2005-2020 period comes from the World Bank and Our World. Namely the GDP per capita variable, the carbon dioxide emission variable and fossil energy consumption. The results obtained from this study are that the hypothesis in EKC theory is relevant or occurs in OPEC member countries. In addition, per capita GDP and fossil energy consumption also positively affected OPEC member countries for the 2005-2020 period. It means that an increase in the economy will cause environmental damage by increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide gas emissions due to the use of fossil energy. However, at some point, a high economy will reduce environmental damage due to an economic orientation that focuses on the environment so that it uses environmentally friendly energy.”

From a paper by Fabio Anobile, Marco Maria Matarrese, Alberto Costantiello, and Lucio Laureti:

“Income inequality poses significant challenges to economic development, social stability, and sustainable growth. While some studies argue that expansionary monetary policies exacerbate inequality by benefiting financial asset holders, others suggest they reduce inequality through job creation and economic stimulation. This study investigates the relationship between monetary policy and inequality, focusing on both conventional (federal funds rate) and unconventional (shadow rate) measures. Given the limitations of traditional interest rate indicators, the shadow rate offers a more comprehensive assessment of monetary policy effects, particularly in zero-lower-bound conditions. Employing a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with Cholesky decomposition, this research analyses the short-run effects of monetary policy on inequality. The findings highlight that the shadow rate provides a more accurate representation of monetary policy’s impact on inequality compared to conventional measures, emphasizing the need for refined analytical tools in economic policy analysis. Policymakers should update models to reflect evolving transmission mechanisms, ensuring more accurate assessments and effective decisions.”