The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Ali Moridian, Hassan Heidari, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, and Heshmatolah Asgari:

“This study investigates the asymmetric effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Oil Price Uncertainty (OPU) on inflation in Iran, using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression method. Given Iran’s oil-dependent economy, the research aims to understand how global and domestic uncertainties impact inflation dynamics, particularly during economic turbulence. Traditional models often neglect the non-linear and heterogeneous effects of uncertainty on inflation, prompting the use of the QQ approach to capture the varying impacts across different quantiles.”

From a paper by Samina Iqbal, and Muhammad Faisal Khan:

“Inflation targeting (IT) has emerged as a dominant monetary policy framework adopted by central banks to enhance price stability and macroeconomic credibility. This study empirically examines the impact of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, focusing on inflation control, output stability, and economic growth. Using cross-country evidence from inflation targeting and non-inflation-targeting economies, the analysis evaluates whether IT frameworks deliver superior macroeconomic outcomes. The findings suggest that inflation targeting is associated with lower inflation volatility and improved policy transparency, though its effectiveness depends heavily on institutional strength, fiscal discipline, and financial market development. The study contributes to ongoing policy debates by highlighting both the benefits and limitations of inflation targeting in emerging and developing economies.”

From a paper by Deepak Kushawaha, Abhishek Gorsi, Ankit Singh Kharwar & Abhishek Singh:

“This paper explores the impact of renewable energy (RE) generation on energy inflation in India using an ARDL model with data from 1974 to 2023. The findings show that RE generation has a significant long-term positive effect on energy inflation, probably due to the high initial infrastructure costs. These results challenge the divine coincidence hypothesis, suggesting that while RE helps cut emissions, it might also drive-up inflation. This analysis does not critique RE development but highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of its economic impacts. To counteract these inflationary pressures, policies should focus on increasing investments in RE research and development, implementing effective energy storage solutions, and upgrading grid infrastructure to balance economic growth, inflation control, and environmental sustainability.”

From a paper by Afees A. Salisu & Abeeb O. Olaniran:

“This study evaluates the predictability of energy uncertainty in relation to economic activity across the global and the large open economy of the United States. Two distinct objectives guide the research: first, to explore the nexus between energy uncertainty and economic activity using various metrics, and second, to examine how well energy uncertainty enhances the forecast performance of economic activity across three different benchmark models, including a random walk with and without drift, and a historical average. The analysis incorporates two lag structures to capture additional dynamics, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between energy uncertainty and economic activity. Results indicate that heightened energy uncertainty generally stifles economic activity, although this effect weakens over a longer lag structure. This finding is consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts, and remains robust even when certain fundamentals are incorporated as controls, highlighting the strength of the research. These findings hold significant implications for both micro- and macroeconomic perspectives, underscoring the potential contribution of this research to the field of economics. The implications for policymakers are particularly noteworthy, as they provide valuable insights for decision-making in the energy sector.”

On cross-country:

• Housing Europe President: the answer to a structural crisis caused by a market failure cannot be entrusted to the market itself. At the start of 2026, a year crucial for housing policy, Housing Europe’s President, Marco Corradi shares his thoughts on how we can guide Europe home. – Housing Europe
• Many Victorian cities grew by tenfold in a century. Could ours do the same? – The Works in Progress Newsletter

Working papers and conferences:

• Seminar: Competitive Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Housing Prices and Educational Expenditures on February 20 – Stanford University
• 5th Workshop on Residential Housing: Research Frontiers in Climate Risks and Affordability – University of Cambridge
• Creating High-Opportunity Neighborhoods: Evidence from the HOPE VI Program – NBER
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Neighborhood Policies: a Dynamic Analysis – NBER
• Housing Affordability and Housing Demand – San Francisco Fed

On China:

• China’s measures to shore up its indebted property sector – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia spends more on tax breaks for landlords than social housing, homelessness and rent assistance combined – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices hit 30-month low as buyers hold back – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] The numbers don’t lie: The housing crisis is not caused by a supply shortage. Financialization, not demographics, caused the cost of housing to explode – Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Housing Market Rebounds With Renewed City Buzz – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Apartment Prices Have Risen Every Single Week for a Year in Seoul. Seoul’s real estate rally is frustrating young workers who see the bottom rung of the property ladder float out of reach. – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Prices Rise Further Even as Lee Hardens Resolve – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Brussels admits that Portugal is “one of the countries most affected” by the housing crisis in the EU. Brussels estimates that housing prices in Portugal are overvalued by 25%, the highest percentage in the European Union – ENR
• [Sweden] Erik Thedéen: Weak consumption and the housing market – causes and lessons learnt – Sveriges Riksbank
• [United Kingdom] London’s high land prices need ‘market adjustment’, says housing minister. Matthew Pennycook says far-reaching reform is needed to ‘get more volume out of the system’ and deliver more homes – FT
• [United Kingdom] Leaseholds and fleeceholds are a blot on the UK housing market. If more homes are to be built, the problem of rogue estate management companies has to be addressed – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rebound at Start of 2026, Nationwide Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Santander launches 98% mortgage for first-time buyers. Move by one of the biggest UK lenders broadens options available to low-deposit borrowers – FT
• [United Kingdom] Who killed the British flat? The government needs to revive the appeal of flats — but capping ground rents at £250 a year won’t cut it – FT
• [United Kingdom] Demand for UK rental properties drops as buying becomes more affordable. Falling levels of immigration also reduce competition among tenants – FT