The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan Ostry and Loredana Pisano:

“In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989-2022). We find that (CO 2 ) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation.”

From a paper by Surjit S. Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Prakash Loungani:

“There seems to be a consensus that the inflation targeting framework adopted in India in 2016 has been successful in taming inflation. A comprehensive analysis of inflation targeting should be based on the impact on inflation dynamics, expectations and implications for growth. We illustrate the strong downward time-trend in India’s inflation dynamics coinciding with the inflation targeting regime. Trend inflation levels in India and other emerging market economies also suggest a downward trajectory regardless of the adoption of inflation targeting. Thefore, it is difficult to conclusively establish that adoption of inflation targeting in India led to a moderation in inflation or anchoring of inflation expectations. On expectations, there is some evidence of anchored household expectations, however, this anchoring predates the formal adoption of inflation targeting. Long-term expectations in India have remained firmly anchored since early 2000s. In terms of growth, the high real interest rates policy followed during the initial years of inflation targeting to establish credibility of IT regime adversely affected India’s growth dynamics.”

From a paper by Cristian Mogo Castro:

“This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in Germany during the period 1990-2019, aiming to determine whether there has been absoulute and sufficient decoupling to meet the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. The results suggest that Germany experienced strong decoupling between GDP ans CO₂ emissions, associated with technological transformations, climate policies, and improvements in productive efficiency. However, the observed decoupling rate is insufficient to meet the climate targerts of limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5ºC, 1.7ºC, and 2ºC.”

From a paper by Zhongxia Zhang:

“This paper presents a comprehensive panel dataset of 41 Inflation Targeting (IT) countries from 1990 to 2024 regarding their inflation targets, bands, and track records. First, data on inflation targets and bands are collected through each central bank’s historical documents. Second, several rules-based track record measures are calculated for inflation targeting countries over specific past periods to assess actual inflation outcomes with respect to the central banks’ stated policy objectives. The dataset, which covers both developed and developing countries, is useful for empirical research in economics and finance. Potential reuse areas of this dataset include studies on central banks’ adjustments of inflation targets and bands, the interplay between inflation targeting and economic performance, and the relationship between inflation targeting and financial markets.”

On cross-country:

• Luxury property’s final frontier. There is a boom in ultra-prime apartments in Africa’s megacities – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing Affordability, Supply, and Spatial Misallocation – University of Washington

On China:

• China Taps $1.5 Trillion Fund to Boost Home Market Support – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s rental crisis at home also cost its reputation abroad. Migrants drawn by Australia’s inclusive image encounter discriminatory rental practices that damage the nation’s soft power. – Lowy Institute
• [Australia] Average Australian home passes A$1m amid housing crisis – BBC

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Early signs of renewed housing market confidence emerge in Canada – RBC
• [India] India housing outlook steady but cracks from demand slowdown start to widen – Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Ireland] Ireland modifies rent controls as it seeks to revive homebuilding – Reuters
• [South Africa] Do too many people want a slice of Cape Town? South Africa’s second city is at a crossroads: those flocking to live there are powering the economy, but also driving up house prices and exacerbating a strained market and local infrastructure. For a city surrounded by ocean and mountains, the expansionist path forwards is a complex one – FT
• [United Kingdom] Residential UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty. Average property price drops 0.4% month on month in May to £296,648, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices slid in May following stamp duty tax hike, Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty. Average property price drops 0.4% month on month in May to £296,648, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Rachel Reeves plans ‘housing bank’ to deliver cheaper financing for builders. UK chancellor also considers funding settlement of up to £25bn for social housing in Wednesday’s spending review – FT
• [United Kingdom] Labour’s housing dreams exceed UK developers’ reality. Industry still faces slow build despite hopes for action in government’s spending review – FT
• [United Kingdom] England’s social housing funds ‘less generous’ than £39bn settlement suggests. Analysis indicates spending of about £3bn a year until 2029, similar to AHP’s money for current financial year – FT