The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Heru Wahyudi, Sabila Ramadani, and Ukhti Ciptawaty:

“Human welfare can decrease as a result of a polluted environment. This study aims to examine the relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory in OPEC member countries; besides that, this study also wants to see the effect of GDP per capita and fossil energy consumption on carbon dioxide gas emissions in OPEC countries. Method: this research is included in the descriptive quantitative method using the panel data regression method. The data used in the 2005-2020 period comes from the World Bank and Our World. Namely the GDP per capita variable, the carbon dioxide emission variable and fossil energy consumption. The results obtained from this study are that the hypothesis in EKC theory is relevant or occurs in OPEC member countries. In addition, per capita GDP and fossil energy consumption also positively affected OPEC member countries for the 2005-2020 period. It means that an increase in the economy will cause environmental damage by increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide gas emissions due to the use of fossil energy. However, at some point, a high economy will reduce environmental damage due to an economic orientation that focuses on the environment so that it uses environmentally friendly energy.”

From a paper by Fabio Anobile, Marco Maria Matarrese, Alberto Costantiello, and Lucio Laureti:

“Income inequality poses significant challenges to economic development, social stability, and sustainable growth. While some studies argue that expansionary monetary policies exacerbate inequality by benefiting financial asset holders, others suggest they reduce inequality through job creation and economic stimulation. This study investigates the relationship between monetary policy and inequality, focusing on both conventional (federal funds rate) and unconventional (shadow rate) measures. Given the limitations of traditional interest rate indicators, the shadow rate offers a more comprehensive assessment of monetary policy effects, particularly in zero-lower-bound conditions. Employing a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with Cholesky decomposition, this research analyses the short-run effects of monetary policy on inequality. The findings highlight that the shadow rate provides a more accurate representation of monetary policy’s impact on inequality compared to conventional measures, emphasizing the need for refined analytical tools in economic policy analysis. Policymakers should update models to reflect evolving transmission mechanisms, ensuring more accurate assessments and effective decisions.”

From a paper by Glen Biglaiser , Ibrahim Kocaman , Sebastian M Saiegh , and Ronald McGauvran:

“The association between tax havens and income distribution in home states of multinational corporations has attracted much attention. However, studies have not empirically investigated whether there is also a relationship between low-tax jurisdictions and income inequality in host countries. Our findings, based on data from 152 countries spanning 1972–2020 and a range of econometric strategies, reveal a robust positive relationship between tax haven status and domestic income inequality, with tax havens associated with higher market-income (i.e. pretax and pretransfer) Gini indexes, and estimated postadoption Gini coefficients being larger by an average of 0.54 compared to what would be expected based on global trends, country characteristics, and observable economic factors. We also observe that compensatory tax policies, as well as the type of economic activities attracted by tax havens and their implications for labor markets, seem to mediate this relationship. Our results suggest that low-tax jurisdictions economically harm lower income groups in host countries.”

From a paper by İrfan Çerçil, and Gorkem Aksaray:

“Income and wealth inequality have been steadily rising in developed countries since the 1970s. Unconventional monetary policy has recently come under increasing scrutiny for its role in exacerbating this trend. In response to the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks in many developed countries have started to engage in large-scale asset purchase programs (APPs), also known as quantitative easing (QE), to stimulate their economies. This paper investigates how these policies have influenced inequality. Using panel data from 49 countries between 1999 and 2019, we apply Jordà’s (2005) local projections (LP) method to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) of APPs on income and wealth inequality. To deal with endogeneity, we use propensity scores and the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our results reveal a discernible relationship between APPs and increased inequality. Specifically, we find that while the impact of APPs on income inequality fades over time, their effect on wealth inequality are more pronounced and persistent. Our research contributes to the ongoing debate about the distributional consequences of unconventional monetary policy and offers practical insights for policymakers.”

On cross-country:

• 2025 Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook Mid-Year Update – Fitch
• A broken housing market is driving inequality right across Europe – and fuelling the far right. From Lisbon to Amsterdam, housing policy has led to haves and have-nots. But, as our new series uncovers, it doesn’t have to be this way – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• Mortgage Market Structure and the Transmission of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation – VoxEU
• Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations – SSRN
• Housing Market Spillovers in China via Trading Volume: A Comparison of Two Spillover Indexes – SSRN
• Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative Ai Approach – SSRN 
• Residential real estate (RRE) lending standards: determinants and financial stability implications – ECB

On China:

• China rolls out official ‘property supermarkets’ to prop up creaking housing market. Proponents say these property hubs make transactions more centralised and trustworthy as they are vetted by local governments – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Home construction must double over next decade to restore 2019 affordability: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing shortages in Canada – CMHC
• [Canada] Updating Canada’s housing supply shortages: new housing supply gap estimates – CMHC
• [Canada] CMHC gives up on comparing housing affordability to 2004 levels – Globe and Mail  
• [Canada] Doubling Home Construction Will Barely Improve Affordability in Canada: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada home prices to decline 2% as trade war hits homebuyer confidence – Reuters
• [France] French Housing Loans Recovery Underway but Remains Fragile – Fitch Ratings
• [Hong Kong] Despite property market slump, Hong Kong must increase housing supply. Government should not repeat post-1997 mistake of shelving plans to increase long-term housing supply because of a temporary market dip – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] The Hong Kong property developer rushing to refinance billions of dollars in loans. New World’s negotiations with banks come after years of ambitious debt-fuelled expansion – FT
• [Portugal] Foreigners pay twice as much as locals to buy Portugal homes – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] South Korea to Announce Measures to Cool House Prices, Yonhap – Bloomberg
• [Spain] La crisis de la vivienda también impacta en el empleo: reducir un 30% el precio crearía 410.000 trabajos. La rebaja inyectaría en la economía 25.000 millones de euros en cinco años, ya que las familias podrían consumir más, según un informe de CC OO – El Pais
• [United Kingdom] UK ministers urged to ‘get on’ with stronger homebuyer protections. Consumer group warns people have more rights buying a toaster than a new house – FT
• [United Kingdom] Interest-only mortgage could make comeback as regulator revisits rules. Financial Conduct Authority looks at whether the product it once called a ‘ticking timebomb’ can support home ownership – The Guardian