The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Raúl Ramos Lobo, Esteve Sanromà, and Runhan Ye:

“Reducing unemployment is still a priority for many governments. The objective of this paper is to analyse whether labour market reforms have succeeded in lowering the level of output growth required to reduce unemployment. With this aim, we estimate time-varying thresholds based on a first-difference version of Okun’s law for 25 countries and, then we analyse whether 32 labour reforms have contributed to reducing thresholds. The results show a high heterogeneity of thresholds among countries, but also that thresholds have shown a clear decreasing trend, mainly due to the evolution of the labour force and productivity in these countries. We also find that in 21 of the 32 considered labour market reforms, they have been effective in reducing the value of the threshold. Both results are clearly relevant from a policy perspective.”

From a paper by Richard Schmitz, Franziska Flachsbarth, Leonie Sara Plaga, Martin Braun, and Philipp Härtel:

“Recent events, including the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and climate
change impacts, have exposed the critical need to ensure energy security and resilience in energy
systems. We review existing definitions and interrelations between energy security and resilience,
conceptualising these terms in the context of energy system transformations. We introduce a classification of disturbances into shock events and slow burn processes to highlight key challenges to energy system resilience. Examples illustrate their distinct impacts on technical, economic, and environmental system performance over time. We compile relevant recourse options across resilience capacity levels and system planning horizons to address these challenges, emphasising actionable strategies for an increasingly integrated energy system. Finally, we propose policy recommendations to integrate shock events and slow burn processes into future energy system planning, enabling forward-looking decision-making and system design to analyse and mitigate potential disruptions.”

From a paper by Loek Groot and Chintani Sooriyamudali:

“This paper estimates the global Kuznets curve (2005-2020) by plotting global mean income against global inequality, while exploring COVID-19’s impact on inequality. Using PPP adjusted GDP per capita and Gini index data from 122 countries (94% global GDP, 88% population), global income is simulated assuming lognormality. The paper finds that, at the pandemic outbreak, the world was on the downward part of the Kuznets curve. Compared to within-country inequality, between country inequality contributes significantly to global inequality. While the pandemic may temporarily decelerate the decline of global inequality, the long-term impact will be determined by the level of international cooperation in the global response to the pandemic.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• April Mortgage Rates Edge Up Following Treasury Sell-Off – NAHB
• Washington State Lawmakers Vote to Limit Rent Increases. Supporters say an annual cap of 10 percent, including inflation, will protect tenants. Critics worry it will reduce housing supply and discourage investors. – New York Times
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February. FHFA House Prices up 3.9% YoY – Calculated Risk
• Case Shiller Home Price Index Climbs 3.9% in February – Realtor.com
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year. 10 of the 19 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• Home Price Momentum Slows—and Prices Are Falling in One Florida City – Realtor.com
• US Home-Price Gains Eased in February as Listings Increased – Bloomberg
• AEI Housing Market Indicators, April 2025 – AEI

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• March Home Sales Were the Slowest Since 2009. Some Predict Prices Could Drop Next. – Barron’s
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales – Calculated Risk
• Sales of Existing Homes Plunge to Their Slowest March Pace Since 2009, in Warning Sign for Spring Housing Season – Realtor.com
• Housing market inventory with a price cut just hit a decade high. In total, 302,260 U.S. homes for sale on Realtor.com in March 2025 had a price cut. That represents 33.9% of the active U.S. housing inventory. – Realtor.com
• Back to Basics. Plus: California zoning bill survives powerful lawmaker’s economic illiteracy, Montana legislators pass simple, sweeping, supply-side housing reforms, and Washington passes rent control. – Reason
• Home Builders Are Piling on Discounts as They Struggle to Entice Buyers. Demand during the spring home-buying season has been disappointing, and tariffs threaten to raise costs – Wall Street Journal
• Milwaukee Is One of America’s Most Cutthroat Rental Markets. In this Midwestern city, a lack of housing supply has baby boomers, millennials and Gen Z all vying for apartments. – Wall Street Journal

On other developments:    

• The sluggish housing market isn’t entirely bad news – Axios
• Real Estate Brokerages Fight Over How Houses for Sale Should Be Listed. Compass, one of the largest brokerages in the country, has sued a real estate database in Seattle and accused it of “monopolistic” and “anticompetitive” behavior. – New York Times
• Battle of Home Buyers vs. Investors Is Making Toledo a Housing ‘Gold Mine’. Ohio city of 265,000 is one of the increasingly rare affordable housing markets in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
• The Spring 2025 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking – Realtor.com 
• Can the Housing Market Withstand a Shrinking Workforce? The Role of Hispanic Labor Under Pressure – Realtor.com 
• In the competitive D.C. housing market, government layoffs bring a growing sense of unease. The nation’s capital is still a seller’s market, but buyers are slowly gaining power. – Yahoo Finance
• 4 of America’s Hottest Markets Boast Low Cost of Living, Low Home Prices, and Climate Resiliency – Realtor.com
• Homeownership Rate Dips to Five-Year Low – NAHB
• Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s analysis for 250 markets. Here’s where home sellers—and homebuyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s most recent analysis. – Fast Company
• Housing on Federal Lands Aims to Ease Affordability Crisis. Housing developers and researchers say the idea of building more homes on federal land could help ease shortages. But various obstacles could hinder the effort. – New York Times
• Roofs, repairs, and rodents: How housing quality has climbed in the Twin Cities. Alongside paying higher housing costs, Twin Cities area households have bigger, better places to call home than they did in in 1997 – Minneapolis Fed
• Trump’s First 100 Days in Office Deliver Little Progress on Solving the Housing Crisis – Realtor.com
• The Housing Market Has New Rules. Realtors Are Evading Them. A landmark settlement was expected to disrupt how real-estate agents are paid. This is how that didn’t happen. – New York Times
• When Did the American Housing Affordability Crisis Begin? – National Review  
• The Best Time to Sell a Home is in May – ATTOM
• Homeownership Falls to Its Lowest Level in 5 Years—and One Age Group Is Hit the Hardest – Realtor.com
• A YIMBY Theory of Power. Pro-housing advocates offer an analysis of class relations that is more sophisticated and has more explanatory power than the one held by many critics of the “abundance agenda.” – The Nation
• Housing’s Share of the Economy Grows Higher to Start the Year – NAHB
• Long-Term Impacts of Residential Racial Desegregation Programs – NBER 
• Trump Doesn’t Need the Fed To Fix Housing. Former Rep. Ron Paul argues that slashing red tape will do more to bring down home prices than pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates. – Reason
• Texas City Makes Bold Move To Fix the Housing Crisis – Realtor.com

From a paper by Jingye Liu, Fengqi Guo, Ying Shi, Rijia Ding, and Zhen Chen:

“The recurrence of international geopolitical events has intensified tensions in global energy supply chains. As a major crude oil consumer, China urgently needs to identify vulnerabilities within its crude oil supply chain (COSC) and implement targeted measures to safeguard national energy security. In this study, a risk evaluation index system was constructed based on the entire life cycle in COSC. Then, the phased and overall prominent risks in the China’s COSC from 2012 to 2022 were identified through a two-phase DEA-like model. Furthermore, the evolution of the comprehensive security level of COSC was assessed throughout the study period. Specifically, the phased risks of China’s COSC mainly focused on strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) in the midstream application stage and refined oil trade in the downstream consumption stage. Additionally, China’s COSC primarily confronted overall risks involving domestic crude oil supply potential, geopolitical imports, maritime transportation, and domestic oil consumption. Although the security level of China’s COSC showed an upward trend from 2012 to 2022, the security of the upstream still lagged behind that of the midstream and downstream. Hence, policy recommendations to enhance China’s COSC security include advancing the exploration and development of unconventional oil, strengthening international energy cooperation and the autonomy of maritime transportation, expanding the SPR, increasing the proportion of renewable energy, and establishing a risk early warning platform.”