The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Nezir Köse and Ali Talih Süt:

“This study proposes an implicit index for central bank credibility, which is critical in developing countries implementing an inflation-targeting regime. In a credible central bank, the policy rate impacts the interest rate on short-term deposits. Under this assumption, the residuals obtained from the panel regression model, in which deposit rates are defined as dependent and policy rates as independent variables, are used to calculate the implicit credibility index of central banks. The proposed central bank implicit credibility index was calculated using monthly data from 12 developing countries and New Zealand implementing the inflation targeting regime between January 2006 and June 2023. According to average implicit credibility scores, the most credible central banks for the period between 2006 and 2023 are Thailand, South Africa, and New Zealand, respectively. The results of the fixed effects model using the annual data of the 13 countries between 2006 and 2022 indicate that inflation and its uncertainties have negative effects on the implicit credibility index of the central bank. These results indicate that central banks in developing countries with high inflation and inflation uncertainty may have difficulty in ensuring credibility.”

On cross-country:

• We don’t need zoning. Cities shouldn’t micromanage their economies – The Post-Suburban Future
• What will it cost to build the cities of the future? – World Bank

Working papers and conferences:

• America’s Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier? – NBER
• Global Housing Returns, and the Emergence of the Safe Asset, 1465-2024 – SSRN
• Measuring the Impact of the NAR Settlement – SSRN

On China:

• China is waking up from its property nightmare. An ecstatic $38m luxury-mansion auction lights up the market – The Economist
• New home prices in China rise on policy hope, private survey says – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Rate cut and hopes of more lift Australia home prices to record high in May – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Continue to Climb After RBA Rate Cut – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s horror housing crisis singled out by global think tank – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Fall Further Even as Loans Get Cheaper – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices to rise 3.8% in 2025 as rate cuts support the market – Reuters poll – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Brazil] Brazil’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Why Canada should apply labour protections to the rental housing sector – The Conversation
• [Colombia] Vivienda sin llaves: el boom del arriendo en Colombia – Republica
• [Cyprus] Cyprus’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Georgia] Georgia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] The Netherland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway’s House Prices Flat in May as Property Market Cools – Bloomberg
• [Poland] Poland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Slovenia] Slovenia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] The Guardian view on social housing: invest boldly to tackle ‘simmering anger’ about substandard homes. Two weeks before the spending review, the housing ombudsman has issued an important warning about a deepening crisis and growing human misery – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] British home prices to rise 3.5% this year; government to miss 5-year building target: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Return of 100% mortgage gathers pace as lenders target first-time buyers. More no-deposit deals to come after launches this month, say industry figures – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Post Surprise Increase in May, Nationwide Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house price growth in May exceeds forecasts. Average cost of residential property rose 0.5% between April and May to £273,427 – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise 3.5% y/y in May, Nationwide says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Stamp Duty Deadline Dents The UK Housing Market. Can we expect a rapid rebound, or stagnation later this year? – Bloomberg

From a paper by Bing Lu, Xu Yang, Xinding Yu:

“Using data from Chinese industrial firms between 2000 and 2013, we explore the varied impact of minimum wage increases on the exit behavior and export performance of foreign-owned firms, focusing on three primary motivations: labor costs, market size, and industrial linkages. The results show that foreign-owned firms driven by labor costs are more likely to exit following a minimum wage hike, while those motivated by market size and industrial linkages are less likely to be affected. We also observe similar patterns in firm exports: rising minimum wages generally reduce foreign-owned firms’ exports, with the impact being more pronounced for firms with lower domestic market shares and weaker industrial linkages. This paper highlights that deep integration of foreign-owned firms into the domestic market and industrial chain can help mitigate the exit risks associated with rising labor costs.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• US home prices to rise 3.5% this year but tariffs will hinder new construction: Reuters poll – Reuters
• Home Prices Rebound After Brief Pullback—but There’s Good News for Homebuyers – Realtor.com
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year. 4 of the 5 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• High Mortgage Rates Are Not Killing the Dream of Homeownership for One Generation – Realtor.com
• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• The Mortgage-Market Questions Key to a Public Offering for Fannie and Freddie. Trump administration wants to sell shares in these key financial companies. How it does so will have big impact on home buyers and owners. – Wall Street Journal
• Donald Trump’s plans for Fannie and Freddie would mean payday for hedge funds. Critics warn privatisation of the mortgage giants would enrich Wall St but endanger the housing market – FT 
• Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Applications Dip in May amid Refinance Slowdown – NAHB

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Pending Home Sales Slump as Mortgage Prices Weigh. The pending home sales index sank 6.3% in April, more than offsetting the 5.5% rise in March – Wall Street Journal
• The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall – Redfin
• Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April – NAR
• U.S. Home Vacancy Rate Steady for 13th Straight Quarter – ATTOM
• Multifamily Absorption Moves Lower for New Apartments – NAHB
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 24, 2025 – Realtor.com
• The Housing Inventory Is Here—Where Are the Buyers? – NAR
• April Private Residential Construction Spending Dips – NAHB
• Redfin: These 31 major housing markets have shifted to buyer’s markets. The shifted U.S. housing market now has 500,000 more home sellers than homebuyers, Redfin calculates. – Fast Company
• U.S. Home Sellers Are Sitting on Nearly $700 Billion Worth of Listings, an All-Time High – Redfin
• States with Highest and Fastest Rising Construction Wages, 2025 – NAHB

On other developments:    

• Sun Belt buyers hold the most power this spring – Zillow
• Real Estate Mapped: U.S. Housing Affordability by State – Visual Capitalist
• We’re all addicted to Zillow now. Forget house hunting. Real estate listings are all about gossip, escapism and scoping out your neighbor’s bathroom renovation. – Washington Post
• A Soft Housing Market Isn’t Just a Florida and Texas Story Now. Sellers may be cutting prices, but buyers can wait. – Bloomberg
• Sellers outnumber prospective homebuyers as high prices and mortgage rates skew the housing market – AP
• The housing market cracks. It’s not just about affordability. – Quartz
• America’s housing market is cracking. After more than two years of relentless price increases, the fundamentals are shifting. What’s emerging is a dramatic reversal from what came before – Quartz  
• The Housing Market Was Supposed to Recover This Year. What Happened? Economists predicted that the United States would break free of its long-running housing slump in 2025. But the opposite happened. – New York Times
• How Trump’s Tariffs and Immigration Policies Could Make Housing Even More Expensive. Out-of-control housing costs helped Trump win the 2024 election. Is he about to make the problem worse? – Reason
• How the N.Y.C. Mayoral Candidates Plan to Solve the Housing Crisis. The candidates’ ambitious plans could bring hundreds of thousands of new homes to a city desperate for them, though many are light on details about how they’d pay for them. – New York Times
• The United States Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in April. Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• 2025 Top Rental Markets for Recent College Graduates – Realtor.com
• New Housing Doesn’t Have to Create New Traffic. Americans want to reduce sprawl, but how we actually build depends on the city. – Slate
• First-Time Home Buyers Making Up a Smaller and Smaller Share of the Market – Apollo

From a paper by Aariya Sen, and Rudra Sensarma:

“Recent studies have examined the impact of monetary policy on economic inequality, but have focused on advanced economies and wealth inequality. We analyse the impact of monetary policy on income and consumption inequality estimated from a household level dataset in India. We apply Sign-Restricted VAR and Local Projection models to monthly data for 2014–2023. We show that contractionary monetary policy worsens consumption inequality while reducing income inequality. We also find that while restrictive monetary policy reduces capital income inequality and wage income inequality it widens the gap between capital and wage income earners. Moreover, monetary policy exhibits asymmetric effects, suggesting trade-offs for the central bank.”