The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• 2025 Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook Mid-Year Update – Fitch
• A broken housing market is driving inequality right across Europe – and fuelling the far right. From Lisbon to Amsterdam, housing policy has led to haves and have-nots. But, as our new series uncovers, it doesn’t have to be this way – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• Mortgage Market Structure and the Transmission of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation – VoxEU
• Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations – SSRN
• Housing Market Spillovers in China via Trading Volume: A Comparison of Two Spillover Indexes – SSRN
• Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative Ai Approach – SSRN 
• Residential real estate (RRE) lending standards: determinants and financial stability implications – ECB

On China:

• China rolls out official ‘property supermarkets’ to prop up creaking housing market. Proponents say these property hubs make transactions more centralised and trustworthy as they are vetted by local governments – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Home construction must double over next decade to restore 2019 affordability: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing shortages in Canada – CMHC
• [Canada] Updating Canada’s housing supply shortages: new housing supply gap estimates – CMHC
• [Canada] CMHC gives up on comparing housing affordability to 2004 levels – Globe and Mail  
• [Canada] Doubling Home Construction Will Barely Improve Affordability in Canada: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada home prices to decline 2% as trade war hits homebuyer confidence – Reuters
• [France] French Housing Loans Recovery Underway but Remains Fragile – Fitch Ratings
• [Hong Kong] Despite property market slump, Hong Kong must increase housing supply. Government should not repeat post-1997 mistake of shelving plans to increase long-term housing supply because of a temporary market dip – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] The Hong Kong property developer rushing to refinance billions of dollars in loans. New World’s negotiations with banks come after years of ambitious debt-fuelled expansion – FT
• [Portugal] Foreigners pay twice as much as locals to buy Portugal homes – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] South Korea to Announce Measures to Cool House Prices, Yonhap – Bloomberg
• [Spain] La crisis de la vivienda también impacta en el empleo: reducir un 30% el precio crearía 410.000 trabajos. La rebaja inyectaría en la economía 25.000 millones de euros en cinco años, ya que las familias podrían consumir más, según un informe de CC OO – El Pais
• [United Kingdom] UK ministers urged to ‘get on’ with stronger homebuyer protections. Consumer group warns people have more rights buying a toaster than a new house – FT
• [United Kingdom] Interest-only mortgage could make comeback as regulator revisits rules. Financial Conduct Authority looks at whether the product it once called a ‘ticking timebomb’ can support home ownership – The Guardian

From a book chapter by Ted Schrecker and Clare Bambra:

“‘Austerity is the calling card of neoliberalism’, wrote Lancet editor Richard Horton in 2017. We describe the austerity of US welfare ‘reforms’ of the 1990s and then identify the 2007–2008 financial crisis as the window of opportunity for austerity in Europe. In the UK, we focus specifically on effects on the health effects on low-income households, local government services, and the National Health Service—all negative, sometimes disastrously so. Both in the UK and in the US, impacts fell disproportionately on the poorest and most vulnerable people and regions. Effects on poverty and its sequelae were especially severe. Predictably, health inequalities in the UK increased. We conclude with a provocative description of austerity as a large-scale human experiment, analogous to the structural adjustment programmes that were used to promote neoliberalism starting in the 1980s, and with one scholar’s description of austerity in the UK as a human rights violation.”

From a book chapter by Ted Schrecker and Clare Bambra:

“‘The inequality machine is reshaping the planet’, wrote the editor of Le Monde Diplomatique in 2013. Rising inequality of income and wealth is one of the distinguishing characteristics of the neoliberal era; we provide descriptions first on a global scale and then on the national, noting the role of labour market transformations and the financial crisis. Poverty is a manifestation of inequality with especially negative consequences for health; we examine trends in the UK and the US, and contrast them with the simultaneous increases in wealth accumulation. We then provide three more focussed case examples: spatial inequalities in health in England; incarceration in the US; and unequal distribution of risks and benefits from the activities that generate climate change. We conclude with a review of evidence that economic inequality makes life worse for almost everyone in the societies affected, not just those at its sharp end.”

From a paper by Charlotte Liotta and Jeroen van den Bergh:

“The long-standing growth-versus-environment debate has centered on national and global scales, devoting little attention to cities despite steadily increasing urban concentrations of population, activities and emissions. This Perspective clarifies how this debate plays out for cities by relating four urban growth dimensions—economic, population, spatial and environmental—to the narratives of green growth, degrowth and post-growth. To this end, we review theoretical and empirical insights about links between growth dimensions. Specific issues addressed include horizontal spillovers among cities, vertical policy integration and local experiments. Thus we connect the abstract growth-versus-environment debate to evidence regarding urban environmental policy.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• U.S. Home Price Growth Cools to Near-Two-Year Low. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months to April – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April –Calculated Risk
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 0.7% from May 2025 to May 2026. – Fast Company
• These 96 housing markets are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, these 96 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis. – Fast Company
• What Trump’s Bomb Strike on Iran Means for Mortgage Rates in the US – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009. There is a consensus among major publicly traded homebuilders that the spring 2025 housing market was softer than expected. – Fast Company
• Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows – NAHB
• Home Prices Stay Steady as Buyers Take Their Time – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s new rating for 250 major markets. Where home sellers—and home buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s updated analysis released in June. – Fast Company
• Real USA Home Prices Flat for 1 Year & 19% Above 2006 Peak – Real Estate Decoded
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 7% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Active Inventory Highest Reached 67-Month High – Calculated Risk
• Home Sales Stay Sluggish in May as Mortgage Rates and Uncertainty Weigh on Market – Realtor.com
• Home Sales Rose in May, but Housing Market Is Still Sluggish. Existing-home sales edge up 0.8%, ending two-month streak of declines – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. New Home Sales Slump as High Mortgage Rates Persist. Sales of new single-family homes fell 13.7% to 623,000 in May – Wall Street Journal
• How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm. To what extent was the construction boom a product of the sometimes-perverse incentives and disincentives facing developers? – Bloomberg
• Homeownership: Not Enough Supply for Middle-Income Buyers. For teachers, nurses and other skilled workers, few options. – New York Times
• California Democrats wage internal war over Gavin Newsom’s late push to build more housing. Governor is drawing heavy resistance to his housing development proposal. – Politico

On other developments:    

• Interactive Tool Charts Pandemic Homebuying Trends – San Francisco Fed
• The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Unease in the Housing Market Amid a Worsening Affordability Crisis – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Zohran Mamdani’s policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC. Progressive ideas still try to defy economic realities. – Noahpinion
• Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible? – NAHB
• Institutional Investors Aren’t the Villains of America’s Housing Market – National Review
• More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater. Some who bought around the market peak in pandemic boomtowns owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – Wall Street Journal
• Buyers in the Priciest Housing Markets Need 80% Down To Afford Monthly Costs – Realtor.com
• Thoughts on the Big, Fascinating, Exciting Mamdani Upset! The affordability crisis is real. Mamdani’s offering solutions where others, including the president, not only have nothing, but are making it worse. – Jared Bernstein 
• New York’s Housing Crisis Is So Bad That a Socialist Is Poised to Become Mayor. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old who campaigned on rent freezes, emerged victorious in the city’s Democratic primary – Wall Street Journal
• Will Zohran Mamdani’s Housing Plan Actually Work in New York City? – Realtor.com
• On Housing, All New York Politicians Are Socialists. Allegedly sane, centrist opponents of New York City’s socialist mayoral candidate are all too happy to regulate rental housing into the ground. – Reason
• New Yorkers Vote to Make Their Housing Shortage Worse. Austin, Texas, and other red-state cities have set an example for how to make housing markets work – New York Times
• A New Rail Line May Come to New York. Will a Housing Boom Follow? The Interborough Express, a rail line connecting Brooklyn and Queens, could spur the building of tens of thousands of homes. Obstacles await. – New York Times
• Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales – NAHB
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Confronting the affordable-housing crisis – McKinsey
• Why Do Republicans Support the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit? Publicly funded homes in some cities are costing taxpayers more than $1 million per unit, but Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would increase funding for these inefficient projects. – Reason
• San Francisco’s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming Again Thanks to AI Wealth. A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty says the top end of the market has undergone a renaissance. – Bloomberg
• Affordability Crisis Worsens as Home Prices Hit ‘Shocking’ New High—5 Times What the Typical Household Earns – Realtor.com
• Where Are the Least Competitive Housing Markets? – Zillow
• Housing Department to Move Headquarters, Booting National Science Foundation. The plan to depart Washington and take over the science agency building in Virginia raised questions about where N.S.F. employees would go. – New York Times