The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Martin T. Bohl, Niklas Humann, and Pierre L. Siklos:

“This survey synthesizes evidence on the bidirectional links between commodity markets and monetary policy. On the commodities-to-policy side, we review how shocks to energy, food, and metals pass through to inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and financial stability in state-dependent ways that vary by shock type, exposure, and policy regime. We complement the literature with an analysis of central-bank speeches, showing how officials classify commodity shocks and how these framings map into policy stances. On the policy-to-commodities side, we organize evidence on the transmission of monetary policy to commodity markets via financial, real-economy, and expectations channels, highlighting heterogeneity across policy instruments, commodities, and central banks. We emphasize how financialization tightens cross-asset linkages, raises leverage and margin sensitivity, and amplifies discount-rate and risk-taking mechanisms. Overall, commodities are best treated as policy sensitive state variables, not exogenous disturbances, with implications for policy design, central bank communication, and international monetary spillovers.”

From a paper by Tim Köhler:

“This study presents an examination of the predictive power of narrative reports from German economic institutes beyond traditional quantitative forecasts in anticipating economic recessions and directional changes in the business cycle. I transform qualitative narratives into quantitative sentiment scores using four different dictionaries and methods and use fixed-effect logistic regression to analyse their impact. To evaluate model performance, I use the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) to compare models with versus without sentiment scores. Additionally, I employ DeLong’s test and bootstrapping to test the significance of AUROC improvements. Furthermore, I explore the potential of combining multiple sentiment scores to enhance forecasting accuracy. The results show that sentiment scores significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This suggests that narrative information provides valuable insights beyond quantitative forecasts alone.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Trump calls 50-year mortgages no ‘big deal’ as right-wing conservatives balk – Reuters
• Will a 50-Year Mortgage Make Homes More Affordable? Here’s How It Would Work. A mortgage this long would reduce a home buyer’s monthly payments, but the interest owed would be much higher – Wall Street Journal
• Why Lower Mortgage Rates Aren’t Enough to Make Homes Affordable, in Charts. Many hopeful buyers need more than lower rates to afford a house – Wall Street Journal
• The Housing Industry’s Take on the 50-Year Mortgage. The hint of a 50-year mortgage by President Donald Trump has spawned differing opinions and new insight into what’s possible for housing affordability. – Builder
• 3 questions about Trump’s 50-year mortgage plan – NPR
• Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Loses Steam as Industry Questions Costs – Bloomberg
• Builders’ Cheap Mortgages Are a Bad Deal for Home Buyers. People who borrow from a builder are more likely to overpay for their property and be underwater after they move in – Wall Street Journal
• Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Applications Rise – NAHB
• Unchanged Lending Conditions for Residential Mortgages in Third Quarter – NAHB
• Monitoring Employment for Home Price Cues – Home Economics
• Home Prices Keep Rising: 10 Markets Seeing the Sharpest Increases – National Association of Realtor
• The Most Rent-Burdened States in America – Visual Capitalist
• What Mamdani Can Learn From Cairo About Rent Control – Bloomberg
• November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices “Firmed” in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• The decade of regulation: How New York City’s housing policies fueled rental inflation. Understanding how regulatory layering has driven rental inflation in New York City is critical to forging solutions that restore the rental market. – Reason

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Which Local Markets Track National Trends the Most: 2024 Multifamily MAI – NAHB
• Remodelers on the Rise: How Renovation is Reshaping Residential Construction – NAHB
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025 – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• The staircase rule that’s limiting housing growth. Revisiting the two-stair requirement in building code could improve spatial efficiency and expand housing options. – Reason
• Why Is the Cost of Owning a Home So High Now? It’s getting tougher than ever to become a homeowner, especially for first-time buyers. A Tufts economist explains why – Tufts Now
• Virginia Is Struggling in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Spanberger Get the State Building Again? – Realtor.com
• Mississippi Is Struggling in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Reeves Build Momentum? – Realtor.com
• Record Shutdown Clouds Economic Data, and Housing Is Caught in the Middle – Realtor.com
• Why More Housing Is Key to a Thriving Economy. ‘A strong community is really dependent on a strong economy and also a strong workforce. And in order to have those things you need an affordable home so that employees can easily get to their job.’ – US Chamber of Commerce
• More Cities Are Turning Into Buyer’s Markets—Where Homebuyers Now Have the Upper Hand – Realtor.com
• Dream Home Sooner: How a 0% Down VA Loan Cuts 4.4 Years Off the Wait – Realtor.com
• The Difference Between Affordable Housing and Housing that’s Affordable – Politico
• ATTOM Reveals Best Day to Buy a Home Based on Lowest Premium Above AVM – ATTOM
• AI Layoffs Are Spiking—Could They Be the Housing Market’s Next Shock Wave? – Realtor.com
• U.S. Cross-Sector Housing Monitor: 2H25 – FitchRatings
• Washington, DC, Is Failing in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Mayor Bowser Reverse the Trend? – Realtor.com  
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity Posts Eighth Straight Month of Year-Over-Year Increases – ATTOM
• Trump Administration Expected to Drastically Cut Housing Grants. In a major shift, HUD’s plan would direct most of the $3.5 billion in homelessness funds away from Housing First to programs that prioritize work and drug treatment. – New York Times
• How this major city became one of America’s most affordable for home buyers. While there are many yardsticks for calculating housing affordability, Pittsburgh stands out as uniquely livable – Washington Post  
• U.S. Housing Economy Cools Further with Higher Costs, Weaker Demand – Fitch Ratings

From a paper by Yu-Ting Chiang, Mikayel Sukiasyan, and Piotr Zoch:

“This article examines the distributional effects of government bailouts using a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with financial intermediation frictions. We analyze government equity injections to financial institutions financed by debt issuance, capturing essential features of bailout policies during financial crises. When calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, bailout policies are expansionary and reduce inequality through general equilibrium effects operating primarily via aggregate demand stimulation and increased labor income rather than direct wealth effects. Equity injections increase the financial sector’s capacity to intermediate capital, leading to higher capital prices, increased investment, and substantial aggregate demand increases. This improves labor market conditions that benefit lower-income households more than wealth effects benefit the wealthy. The result is reduced wealth and consumption inequality, demonstrating that bailouts can simultaneously achieve macroeconomic stabilization and inequality reduction.”

From a paper by Krishantha Wisenthige, Heshan Sameera Kankanam Pathiranage, and Ruwan Jayathilaka:

“This study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.”