The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Supipi Hansika, Priyan Navamohan, Dinuli Gamage, Ridmi Madurawala &  Ruwan Jayathilaka:

“In the modern world, exploring economic uncertainty and the unpredictability in economic conditions is crucial to determine its impact on day-to-day society. However, existing literature has examined this relationship in a generalised manner, often without focusing on the bi-directional effects among these variables. This study explores the causal and cointegrating interrelationships among economic uncertainty and suicide rates, unemployment rates, economic growth, and trade openness across 30 high uncertainty countries utilising Granger causality test and Cointegration test. Unlike existing studies, which focus on a certain country or region, the current findings disclose bi-directional causation between the measured variables, particularly in Kenya, Finland, Portugal, Latvia, Peru, Haiti, Mexico, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic. The cointegration tests show that while uncertainty reduces economic growth and trade openness in the long run, in line with contemporary literature, uncertainty also reduces suicide rates and unemployment rates in the long term. By analysing the countries with the highest economic uncertainty, this study aims to provide country-specific policies in line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) developed by United Nations (UN) to navigate the bi-directional effects among economic uncertainty and the linked variables.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Refinancing Starts to Thaw as Rates Trend Down. It has been a frustrating wait for people who bought homes in the past few years, when mortgage rates have been high – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgages Could Shrug Off a Fed Cut—but Not This One – Barron’s
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Second Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• The U.S. housing market is ‘finally starting to listen’ to homebuyers plagued by high mortgage rates and home prices, economist says – Fortune

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Homebuilder inventory hits 2009 levels—creating deals in these housing markets. A record 121,000 completed single-family homes sat unsold in July, as affordability challenges weigh on buyers in key Sun Belt markets. – Fast Company
• Forget YIMBY. The housing shortage could disappear on its own. Demographic shifts and construction surges are likely to resolve the housing crisis without federal intervention. – Washington Post
• The 5 most competitive housing markets in America right now — and the 5 least. Some cities are still seeing bidding wars — but others are flooded with inventory – Quartz
• June Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher – NAHB
• U.S. construction spending fell in July amid a slow housing market. Construction spending was down 2.8% year-over-year in July, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau – Quartz
• The Mobile Home Comeback: New California Program Offers Cash To Repair or Replace Aging Homes – Realtor.com
• Open Construction Jobs Rise in July – NAHB
• How We Are Working to Increase the Multifamily Housing Supply – Freddie Mac
• Congress continues to advance significant housing supply incentives – JP Morgan Chase

On other developments:    

• Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks – Dallas Fed
• Dynamic Tables: Comparing Cities – Home Economics
• Trump May Declare a National Housing Emergency: What to Know – Time
• Bessent: Everything on table for housing affordability fixes – Axios
• Bessent says Trump administration will tackle high housing costs with new measures – Reuters
• Trump wants to ax an affordable housing grant, a lifeline for many rural communities – Los Angeles Times   
• Trump Considers Declaring National Housing Emergency This Fall – Realtor.com
• Yes, America Has a Housing Emergency. But Trump will make it worse – Paul Krugman
• The Trump Administration’s Fake Housing Emergency. The results of America’s overly burdensome housing regulations aren’t great. But they’re not an “emergency.” – Reason
• The Face of Homeownership in the U.S. is Getting Older—What You Need to Know – Realtor.com
• There’s a housing market shift afoot—just ask Realtors. Among real estate agents that Zoodealio and ResiClub surveyed, 81% say buyers are gaining leverage in their local housing market—that share is even higher among agents based in the Southwest (96%). – Fast Company
• NAHB HBGI:  Relative Gains for Smaller Markets, Particularly for Multifamily – NAHB
• America is escaping its office crisis. The torment caused by covid-19 and high interest rates appears to be over – The Economist
• Cruel Summer: Why the U.S. Housing Market Is Stuck – Realtor.com
• Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the Affordable Housing Crisis: A Closer Look –CEPR
• U.S. Housing Costs to Return to ‘Normal’ by 2030 With Stable Price Growth and Moderately Lower Rates – Realtor.com
• The ‘abundance movement’ needs to help distressed places, not just booming ones – Brookings 
• Strong Foundations: A Playbook for Housing and Economic Growth – AEI
• Wall Street Is Killing the Housing Market. Investment giants are buying up homes and pricing real people out of the market. But it doesn’t have to be this way. – Inequality.org
• I Did My Dissertation on Housing Displacement. Then I Experienced It Myself. If someone like me can get trapped in the cycle of housing instability, anyone can. But the solutions are out there. – Inequality.org
• Metro Area Growth at Risk from Recent Drop in Immigration – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• California and Florida Top New List of the Riskiest Housing Markets in the Nation – Realtor.com