The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Interest Rates Today: Mortgage Rates Dip to 6.26% Following Long-Awaited Fed Cut – Realtor.com
• How the Fed’s rate cut impacts mortgage rates – AP
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Household Formation Drives Housing Demand – Calculated Risk
• Housing prices are causing some people to have smaller families than planned – NPR

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Lennar’s Profit Sinks as Housing Market Remains Stalled. The homebuilder’s profit fell for a fourth consecutive quarter – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Homes Are Built Faster in 2024 – NAHB
• Housing Supply Drops Most in 2 Years as Sluggish Demand Spooks Sellers – Redfin 
• One reason so many seniors are staying in large homes. Congress should raise capital gains exemptions for seniors to address shortage of homes for sale. – Washington Post
• Home equity loans will keep US housing market tight. Downsizing has become less appealing to older generations, lowering inventory of property sales – FT
• With New Plan, Hochul Fast-Tracks Housing Supply. A new program will put manufactured homes at the center of a statewide effort to make housing more affordable. – New York Times  
• California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month – Calculated Risk
• Summer 2025 Was the Strongest Buyer’s Market in Records Dating Back Over a Decade – Redfin
• Single-Family Construction Loan Volume Falls Back – NAHB
• New Home Sales Post Unexpected Large Gain in August – NAHB
• New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August. Median New Home Price is Down 10% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall in August Amid Higher Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August. Median House Prices Increased 2.0% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• Introducing JobsWatch – Home Economics
• Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy – Stanford
• A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda! Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney. – Jared Bernstein
• The 6 states with the highest homeownership rates in America — and the 6 lowest. Learn more about the factors shaping homeownership rates. Plus, get homeownership data for 13 U.S. states – Quartz
• The US Abandoned Affordable Housing. We Can Create It Again. – Jacobin
• Trump Appointees Roll Back Enforcement of Fair Housing Laws. Interviews and internal documents show that signature civil rights protections in housing are being dismissed as ideologically driven and D.E.I. in disguise. – New York Times 
• U.S. Birth Rates Plummet as Home Prices Surge: Here’s How the Housing Market Is Shaping Family Planning – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing. Growing pessimism about a rebound is taking hold among companies tied to residential construction. – Bloomberg
• Four Easy Fixes for the Housing Crisis – New York Times
• Beyond the numbers: Real families, real barriers — and the practical steps to achieving homeownership. Families share how inequities have shaped their housing journeys. Zillow shares what can be done to create a fairer path to homeownership. – Zillow
• Homeownership Costs, Drop in Home Value Hit Black Households Hardest. Minority households are more likely to be cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on mortgage, property taxes, and insurance. – Zillow
• The American Dream Will Now Cost You $5 Million – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing. Growing pessimism about a rebound is taking hold among companies tied to residential construction. – Bloomberg
• Third Quarter Sees Homes Grow Less Affordable in Much of Country – ATTOM  

Engaging Economics Series Moderated by Prakash Loungani

In a timely and thought-provoking session, Prakash Loungani moderates a distinguished panel of economists to assess the performance of the Federal Reserve. The discussion, part of the Engaging Economics series, brings together leading voices from academia, policy, and the private sector to explore how well the Fed has navigated recent economic challenges.

Featured speakers include:

• Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, a trusted adviser to policymakers and a frequent Congressional witness.
  🎥 Watch Zandi’s remarks: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/xobx9fpdysrotz6ajfwzv/Zandi_Engaging_Economics.mp4?rlkey=xpcxrm8wc7mepcnhwuadwv8vf&st=h0aywkuj&dl=0

• Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former chief economist for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury.
  🎥 Watch Barth’s remarks:
  https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/u49l09vs983mbjhcv9z1i/Barth_Engaging_Economics.mp4?rlkey=w09oa0cmjg18b3jbhfx1drpzi&st=svf8c3xf&dl=0

• Jonathan Wright, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins University and former Fed economist.
  🎥 Watch Wright’s remarks: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hlcc59i3uhdnzawntwz11/Wright_Engaging_Economics.mp4?rlkey=g8jttv891swh5z04p3vn2pk8c&st=adxfxk1t&dl=0

• Tara Sinclair, Chair of the Economics Department at George Washington University and former Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Treasury.
  🎥 Watch Sinclair’s remarks:
  https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e1pcswzueicurm87ed41q/Sinclair_Engaging_Economics.mp4?rlkey=p5wqo31cp3gv2g8jtmsdn7hrx&st=j34h3v0q&dl=0

Working papers and conferences:

• Event: Developing Coordinated Strategies to Increase Housing Inventory on October 8 – Philadelphia Fed
• Rising housing prices and foreign-invested enterprise inflows in Chinese cities: The role of urban innovation – Habitat International
• Superstar Returns: Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing – KIEL Institut
• The House Price Channel of Quantitative Easing – IDEAS

On China:

• China’s property market shows signs of stabilisation despite monthly fall. August figures continued their month-on-month decline, though the sluggish sector’s year-on-year numbers narrowed marginally – South China Morning Post
• China Used Home Prices Drop Faster as Cities Expand Support – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Politicians hoping AI can fix Australia’s housing crisis are risking another Robodebt. The technology will be used to ‘simplify and speed up assessments and approvals’. But planning is more than just paperwork waiting to be automated – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Austria] Austria Extends Home Rent Controls to Private Contracts – Bloomberg
• [Bosnia and Herzegovina] The Real Estate Market in Bosnia and Herzegovina – IMF
• [Canada] Canada Home Sales Rise for Fifth Month as Inventory Lures Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada announces new federal agency to build affordable housing – Reuters
• [Canada] Carney allots $13-billion to build affordable housing under Build Canada Homes – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Carney Unveils $9.4 Billion Plan to Build Affordable Homes – Bloomberg 
• [France] The left’s radical plan to fix housing in Paris. Authorities are using an arsenal of interventionist tools to make city homes affordable. Critics call it an attack on property rights. – FT 
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong developers test homebuyer sentiment as residential market outlook improves. Henderson Land and Swire Properties have varying success with the sales of their residential projects in To Kwa Wan and Chai Wan – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] House prices have grown by about 50 percent on average over the last five years – Irish Independent
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices dip in August, buyers remain cautious – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Surge to Nine-Month High in Renewed Frenzy – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK rental listings fall at fastest rate since Covid lockdown, survey shows. Rics members attribute sharp drop to worries over tenants’ rights, inheritance tax and national insurance – FT
• [United Kingdom] Average U.K. House Asking Prices Rise in September. Rightmove said the rise was less than the average for this time of the year – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall while rents rise by least in 4 years, surveys show – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices to rise more slowly than expected, helping first-time buyers: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise 2.8% in 12 months to July – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Price Maps – Home Economics
• Home Prices Decline in a Growing Number of Markets as Inventories Climb – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q2 – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Are at an 11-Month Low. Will That Save This Housing Market? Buyers have more purchasing power, but home prices near record highs and a weakening job market are significant hurdles – Wall Street Journal
• Shelter Inflation Continued to Cool – NAHB
• The Fed is poised to cut rates. Will mortgage rates follow? With a Fed rate cut expected this week, many expect mortgage rates to follow. Here’s why that’s not always the case – Quartz
• What Does a Fed Rate Cut Mean for Mortgage Rates? – Realtor.com
• US 30-year mortgage rate drops, refinances jump, MBA data shows – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• August 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Remain Soft Ahead of Fed Meeting – NAHB  
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August – Calculated Risk
• US single-family housing starts approach 2-1/2-year lows amid excess supply – Reuters

On other developments:    

• Homeownership Costs Have Jumped 26% Over 5 Years as Hidden Expenses Rise – Realtor.com
• August 2025 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• The Metros Where Homes Are Selling Fastest—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Mapped: Housing Affordability Across North America in 2025 – Visual Capitalist
• Adding Value. The Federal Housing Administration and the costs of incentive-driven development – Phenomenal World
• Household Real Estate Asset Values Reach New High – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Housing costs squeeze owners and renters alike, outpacing inflation. Renters also faced a financial shock in 2024, as rent increases outpaced inflation. – Washington Post
• The right way to look at the housing crisis. Readers suggest fixes to the housing crisis and crime – Washington Post
• Even New York City’s Wealthy Renters Can’t Avoid the Housing Crisis. In some of the city’s wealthiest enclaves, even high earners are struggling to keep up with ballooning costs. – Bloomberg
• Housing Slump Ripples Through Manufacturing Economy. Air-conditioner manufacturer Carrier and plumbing product distributor Core & Main warned of a steep whipsaw in residential demand. – Bloomberg
• Closing the gap: How policy, builders and innovation can rebalance housing – Zillow
• Affordable Metros Where You Can Find a Home Priced Below $300K—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• My Head Talks on Bloomberg. On tariffs, housing and more – Paul Krugman
• Builders Stay Cautious as Single-Family Permits Extend Downtrend – NAHB
• Texas now restricts Chinese nationals from buying property. Is it alien land laws all over again? – The Guardian
• US housing market to remain stuck in a rut as high rates choke demand – Reuters
• US economy braces for twin housing, labor market headwinds – Reuters
• Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High – NAHB
• Student housing prices are rising in Portland – Axios
• Home Flipping Profit Margins Hit 17-Year Low in Second Quarter – ATTOM
• US single-family housing starts near 2-1/2-year lows as inventory bloat weighs – Reuters

On cross-country:

• A new frontier for skyscrapers. Why African governments are building higher – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Conference: Housing affordability: what is new? On September 26, 2025 – Institute of Public Finance

On China:

• China’s urban planners could determine the future of city life. They are betting big on interconnected city clusters – The Economist

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Slashing migration would actually lead to higher house prices in Australia. Here’s why. Economic modelling reveals the effects of eliminating migration for a decade on growth, the workforce and the budget – The Guardian
• [Australia] Aussie home prices to rise on interest rate cuts, affordability worries persist: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Australia] Data missing on two of nation’s ‘biggest issues’ as Australian Bureau of Statistics fumbles key survey. Economics expert criticises last-minute cancellation of report that would shed light on cost-of-living and housing crises – The Guardian
• [Australia] Is the war on NIMBYs enough to fix Australia’s housing crisis? – Financial Review
• [New Zealand] Why New Zealand Is Relaxing Its Property Rules for Rich Foreigners – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Belgium] Properties in Ardennes on the rise again. The price of a house in the Ardennes has risen by more than 13% in the past year, according to figures from notaries. – The Brussels Times
• [Canada] The housing market — where are we? – CIBC
• [Hong Kong] The Plot to Make Beijing Save the Hong Kong Property Market – Bloomberg
• [Korea] South Korea to tighten mortgage rules in Seoul, boost housing supply – Reuters
• [Spain] El precio de la vivienda de segunda mano rompe todos los récords y supera los niveles de la burbuja inmobiliaria. Las casas usadas se encarecieron un 12,8% en el segundo trimestre y superan la marca de 2007, según el INE. El índice general de precios repuntó un 12,7%, la mayor subida en 18 años – El Pais
• [Spain] El mercado inmobiliario español consolida su fase expansiva en 2025 – CaixaBank
• [United Kingdom] Average UK house price rises to record £299,331, says Halifax. Increase of 0.3% in August marks third consecutive monthly rise, exceeding market expectations – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise 0.3% in August, Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Why Gen X was London’s luckiest property generation. It’s not the boomers who had it easiest when they first bought homes, but the cohort that followed them – FT
• [United Kingdom] Fixing Britain’s broken property-tax system will take courage. The Labour government is unlikely to go there – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] U.K. House Sales Continued to Slow in August, Report Says. Sales activity is seen broadly flat over the next three months – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market slows as buyers retreat, uncertainty swirls, RICS survey shows – Reuters